New algorithm speeds up MCMC for complex distributions.
problem Efficient sampling from complex, high-dimensional distributions.
method Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with state-dependent event rates.
result Approximates Hamiltonian trajectories for robust sampling.
Bitcoin reacts positively to USDT minting but not burning, showing state-dependence.
problem Understanding Bitcoin's response to Tether's supply changes.
method Analyzing Bitcoin's intraday price movements in response to USDT minting and burning events.
result Bitcoin's response to USDT minting events declines after 60 minutes and is influenced by investor sentiment and public announcements.
This study shows ESG ratings reduce equity crash risk during market downturns.
problem Decoupling of alpha from tail risk resilience in traditional models.
method Double Machine Learning for structural deconfounding, state-dependent analysis.
result High ESG ratings reduce crash incidence during systemic drawdowns.
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
problem Accurate default forecasting in credit risk analysis.
method Extends a one-factor Gaussian copula model to include state-dependent recovery rates and a common factor.
result The proposed model outperforms other models in default prediction, especially during hectic periods.
We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally…
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
Study controlled contagion with state-dependent killing, proving a comparison principle.
problem Analyzing controlled McKean--Vlasov contagion with state-dependent killing.
method Proof of a comparison principle using Wasserstein smooth-gauge comparison and killing-jump absorption estimates.
result Established a comparison principle for the two-population killed-particle HJB.
This paper optimizes importance sampling for rare-event options pricing under the Heston model.
problem Efficiently pricing European call options with short maturity and deep out-of-the-money strikes.
method Asymptotic importance sampling schemes leveraging the large deviation principle and state-dependent change of measure.
result Proposed IS methods achieve logarithmic efficiency in short-maturity and deep OTM regimes, significantly reducing variance.
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
problem Capturing the self-exciting nature of bid-ask spread changes.
method State-dependent Spread Hawkes model (SDSH) incorporating various spread jump sizes and current state impact.
result The SDSH model accurately forecasts spread values at short-term horizons.
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities…
A framework combining HSMM and survival analysis for lifecycle-oriented mobility analysis.
problem Understanding individual metro usage dynamics over multi-year horizons.
method A state-based lifecycle modeling framework integrating HSMM and discrete-time survival analysis.
result Identification of interpretable mobility states, transition dynamics, and state-dependent exit and re-entry processes.
In a dual risk model, the premiums are considered as the costs and the claims are regarded as the profits. The surplus can be interpreted as the wealth of a venture capital, whose profits depend on research and development. In most of the existing literature of dual risk models, the profits follow the compound Poisson …
Probabilistic proof of smooth boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
problem Continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
method Local probabilistic arguments for a wider range of conditions.
result First probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability under general conditions.
Study improves covariance estimation for SGD under Markovian data, matching best rates.
problem Improving covariance estimation for SGD in Markovian data settings.
method Online overlapping batch-means covariance estimator for SGD under Markovian sampling.
result Established convergence rates for covariance estimation under Markovian sampling.
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and a…
Proposes a new framework for optimizing utility with state-dependent benchmarks.
problem Various interpretations of benchmarks in utility functions.
method General framework of state-dependent utility optimization with stochastic benchmarks.
result Provides optimal solutions and addresses issues of well-definedness and feasibility.
The paper solves a consumption-investment problem with state-dependent lower bounds.
problem A life-time consumption-investment problem with a state-dependent lower bound on consumption.
method Transformed the problem into a state-independent control problem to apply standard theory.
result Explicit optimal strategies provided for both homogeneous and non-homogeneous constraints.
Unique optimal strategy identified for state-dependent risk aversion.
problem Consistency of optimal portfolio choice for varying risk aversion.
method Analysis of state-dependent exponential utilities in arbitrage-free markets.
result Uniqueness of optimal strategy across any time horizon.
A Hawkes process with state-dependent factor models order flows in limit order books.
problem Modeling order flows in limit order books for better market prediction.
method A Hawkes process with a state-dependent factor for conditional intensity estimation.
result State-dependent formulations improve the fit of LOB models to financial data.
Study of SGD with state-dependent noise, improving escape from local minima.
problem Understanding and improving the dynamics of SGD in non-convex optimization.
method Formal study on SGD with state-dependent noise, proposing power-law dynamic with state-dependent diffusion.
result Power-law dynamic can escape from sharp minima exponentially faster than flat minima.
The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.
problem Understanding which macroeconomic events impact exchange rate volatility.
method Data-driven approach to select relevant macroeconomic events using sparsity-based methods.
result The identified macroeconomic events significantly impact exchange rate volatility.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics i…
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Bayesian model improves categorization of explosions from sparse data.
problem Challenges in categorizing explosions from limited data.
method Bayesian update to Event Categorization Matrix model with Bayesian Decision Theory.
result Consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates.
Predicts next item in sequential bundles using Transformers.
problem Predicting next item in sequentially consumed bundles.
method Used custom Transformers, GPT-3, LSTM, reinforcement learning, Markov models.
result Custom Transformer with decoder-only architecture most accurate.
Event-based control improves neural network training speed and accuracy.
problem Optimizing learning rate and gradient tuning for CNN convergence.
method Two Event-Based control loops for adjusting learning rate in E/PD algorithm.
result Event-Based E/PD control leads to higher final accuracy and lower final loss.
We investigate the extension of the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method to jump-diffusion SDEs. We consider models with finite rate activity, using a jump-adapted discretisation in which the jump times are computed and added to the standard uniform dis- cretisation times. The key component in multilevel analy…
Theory integrates loss aversion into expected utility for monetary returns.
problem Modeling loss aversion in expected utility theory.
method Develops state-dependent linear utility functions incorporating loss aversion.
result Contracts from monopolists in insurance markets.
MOB-dS uses permutation to correct for dependency in discrete survival data.
problem Identifying subgroups in discrete event time data with potential spurious results.
method Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) with modified data matrix and permutation test.
result MOB-dS controls type I error rate better than standard MOB for discrete survival data.
Study efficient algorithms for nonconvex optimization with state-dependent Markov data.
problem Stochastic optimization with Markovian data and state-dependent transition kernels.
method Projection-based and projection-free algorithms for constrained nonconvex problems.
result The number of oracle calls to achieve an ε-stationary point is O(1/ε2.5). In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced …
Bayesian method corrects timing misalignment in recurrent event studies.
problem Estimating differences in event rates under two treatments with timing misalignment.
method g-computation procedure with joint semiparametric Bayesian model.
result Correctly estimates average causal effects under right-censoring.
The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.
problem Defining and characterizing conditional nonlinear expectations.
method Embedding in decision theory, using state-dependent preferences, and continuous utility representation.
result Consistent backward conditional projections are characterized by the Sure-Thing Principle.
Calibrates Hawkes models for market events, revealing power-law feedback kernels.
problem Estimating the influence of past events and price changes on future market events.
method Proposes a calibration procedure for Quadratic Hawkes models, analyzing the kernel components.
result Empirically calibrated kernel components reveal power-law behavior, suggesting system near critical point.
Investigates RI strategies for life insurers with LRD mortality rates.
problem Effect of long-range dependent mortality rates on RI strategies.
method Volterra mortality model, compound Poisson process, open-loop equilibrium mean-variance criterion.
result Explicit equilibrium RI controls derived and uniqueness studied.
This paper develops the Jungle model in a credit portfolio framework. The Jungle model is able to model credit contagion, produce doubly-peaked probability distributions for the total default loss and endogenously generate quasi phase transitions, potentially leading to systemic credit events which happen unexpectedly …
Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.
problem Forecasting crash rates in areas with irregular traffic patterns and exogenous events.
method Adopted a stochastic volatility model to capture heterogeneity and temporal instability.
result The stochastic volatility model outperforms conventional models in forecasting crash rates in Washington, D.C.
We investigate the ergodic problem of growth-rate maximization under a class of risk constraints in the context of incomplete, Itô-process models of financial markets with random ergodic coefficients. Including {\em value-at-risk} (VaR), {\em tail-value-at-risk} (TVaR), and {\em limited expected loss} (LEL), these cons…
We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system interact through the empirical default rate and via systematic effects that are comm…
Research examines impact of Brexit on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
problem Impact of Brexit on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
method Investigates financial market reactions to Brexit news.
result Magnitude and direction of impact on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Paper addresses xVA models for market-implied skew and smile.
problem Capturing market-implied skew and smile in xVA calculations.
method Developed a state-dependent SDE combining Hull-White models with RAnD technique.
result Demonstrated significant effect of skew and smile on xVA calculations.
Simple tabular event prediction model outperforms existing methods.
problem Predicting events from tabular data with historic events.
method Standard autoregressive LLM-style transformers with elementary positional embeddings and causal language modeling.
result Simple model outperforms existing approaches across various datasets and use-cases.
Distributed strategic learning has been getting attention in recent years. As systems become distributed finding Nash equilibria in a distributed fashion is becoming more important for various applications. In this paper, we develop a distributed strategic learning framework for seeking Nash equilibria under stochastic…
A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.
problem Pricing insurance investment portfolios with time-to-event cash flows.
method Discrete-time survival analysis framework, hazard rate estimators, asymptotic multivariate normality.
result Pricing model yields estimates closer to actual cash flows than non-random models.
We prove quantitative convergence rates at which discrete Langevin-like processes converge to the invariant distribution of a related stochastic differential equation. We study the setup where the additive noise can be non-Gaussian and state-dependent and the potential function can be non-convex. We show that the key p…
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …