Optimizes staggered treatment rollouts to minimize cost and error.
problem Efficiently scheduling treatment initiation times for staggered rollouts.
method Non-adaptive and adaptive experimental designs, including a near-optimal solution for non-adaptive cases and a new algorithm for adaptive cases.
result Reduces experiment cost by over 50% compared to static design benchmarks.
Paper develops robust econometric methods for staggered adoption studies.
problem Estimation challenges in event studies with staggered adoption.
method Design-first framework with exact probability limits, diagnostics, and orthogonal score constructions.
result Uniformly valid inference under restricted violations of parallel trends.
Study uses exchangeable GPs for staggered-adoption policy evaluation in panel data.
problem Evaluating the impact of staggered treatments in panel data settings.
method Exchangeable multi-task Gaussian processes (GPs) with flexible kernels.
result Flexible tool for policy evaluation in panel data settings.
Solves the film scheduling and staggered showtimes problem for movie theaters.
problem Maximize attendance and revenue by scheduling films with staggered showtimes.
method Binary integer linear optimization to find optimal schedules for each cluster of neighboring locations.
result Optimal scheduling cannot be done for all locations at once, but must be done for each cluster.
BASIS improves LLM reasoning by sharing batchwise rollout info, reducing MSE by 69%.
problem Improving large language model reasoning with limited rollouts and batch information.
method BASIS samples only one rollout per prompt but uses batch information to improve value function estimation.
result BASIS reduces MSE in value function estimation by 69% compared to REINFORCE++.
Efficiently reduces computational burden of rollout acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
problem Expensive computation of rollout acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
method Combines quasi-Monte Carlo, common random numbers, and control variates to reduce computational burden. Formulates a policy-search approach to eliminate the need to optimize the rollout acquisition function.
result Significant reduction in computational burden of rollout acquisition functions.
A new estimator reduces bias and improves efficiency for staggered adoption studies.
problem Bias in difference-in-differences estimates for staggered adoption studies.
method Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects (FETWFE) estimator with automatic parameter selection.
result FETWFE identifies correct restrictions with probability tending to one, improving efficiency.
Cluster jackknife improves inference for staggered DID methods.
problem Over-rejection of CSDID in small clusters or treated clusters.
method Cluster jackknife for CSDID inference.
result Cluster jackknife greatly improves inference for CSDID.
Deep neural networks, and in particular recurrent networks, are promising candidates to control autonomous agents that interact in real-time with the physical world. However, this requires a seamless integration of temporal features into the network's architecture. For the training of and inference with recurrent neura…
A fast, accurate method for pricing American options with free boundaries.
problem Pricing American options with free boundaries efficiently and accurately.
method A sixth-order compact finite difference scheme with a dynamic staggered boundary scheme and 3(2) R-K Bogacki-Shampine time stepping.
result An efficient sixth-order compact scheme for pricing American options with free boundaries.
This study improves lookahead Bayesian optimization using rollout approximation.
problem Error propagation in lookahead Bayesian optimization due to model mis-specification.
method Proves rollout's improving nature in lookahead BO and provides guidelines for choosing the rolling horizon.
result Empirical results show rollout improves over myopic and non-myopic BO algorithms.
A new estimator combines bootstrapping and rollout methods in RL.
problem Combining strengths of bootstrapping and rollout methods in RL.
method Subgraph Bellman operators and fixed point solving.
result Upper bound on error approaches optimal TD variance with additional term.
SUPAID automates vehicle rollout decisions for fleet managers.
problem Automating supervisor's vehicle rollout decisions to prevent costly mistakes.
method Rule mining approach based on 'one-way efficiency' assumption.
result SUPAID significantly reduces costs in a real transit agency setting.
Paper proposes a forecasting solution for network-rollout planning.
problem Accurate estimation of milestone completion times for network-rollout planning.
method Partition-based regression models incorporating data-driven statistical models.
result The proposed approach outperforms alternative models in terms of performance and model complexity.
We address a class of schemes for the Euler equations with the following features: the space discretization is staggered, possible upwinding is performed with respect to the material velocity only and the internal energy balance is solved, with a correction term designed on consistency arguments. These schemes have bee…
A new method reduces compounding errors in model-based reinforcement learning.
problem Compounding errors in long horizon predictions from model-based reinforcement learning.
method Maximum Entropy Model Rollouts (MEMR) with non-uniform sampling and prioritized experience replay.
result Significantly reduces computation requirements compared to other model-based methods.
Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
method A neural framework that learns individual-level counterfactuals and flexible matching procedures.
result Improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias.
Adaptive correlated MC improves sequence generation stability.
problem High gradient variance in reinforcement learning for sequence generation.
method Adapts policy gradient estimator using correlated Monte Carlo rollouts.
result Reduces gradient variance and improves model performance.
There are two halves to RL systems: experience collection time and policy learning time. For a large number of samples in rollouts, experience collection time is the major bottleneck. Thus, it is necessary to speed up the rollout generation time with multi-process architecture support. Our work, dubbed WALL-E, utilizes…
Interactive IL beats BC by state-wise annotation cost.
problem Behavior Cloning struggles with annotation cost in sequential decision making.
method Proved Stagger and Warm Stagger algorithms to outperform BC.
result Interactive and hybrid IL methods outperform BC with state-wise annotation.
AIS corrects rollout-training mismatch in quantized RL, improving speed and stability.
problem Rollout-training mismatch in quantized RL causes bias and training collapse.
method Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) adjusts gradient correction per batch.
result AIS matches BF16 baseline on most tasks while improving speed.
Study on indexability of restless multi-armed bandits and rollout policy performance.
problem Maximizing discounted rewards in finite state restless multi-armed bandit problems.
method Decouple the problem into single-armed restless bandits, analyze using value iteration, and compare with Whittle index policy.
result Demonstrates conditions for indexability and compares performance of index policy and rollout policy.
Optimal sample complexity for autoregressive chain-of-thought learning proven.
problem Determining the minimum number of samples needed for accurate autoregressive chain-of-thought learning.
method Proved upper bound on sample complexity using Daniely-Shalev-Shwartz dimension and roll-out stable parity dimension.
result The sample complexity is bounded by the local next-token class rate, with no dependence on rollout length.
SFPO optimizes LLM reasoning by repositioning before updating, improving stability and efficiency.
problem Noisy gradients from low-quality rollouts cause instability and inefficient exploration in on-policy RL algorithms.
method Decomposes each step into three stages: a short fast trajectory, repositioning, and slow correction, preserving the objective and rollout process unchanged.
result SFPO consistently improves stability, reduces rollouts, and accelerates convergence, outperforming GRPO on math reasoning benchmarks.
Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) aims to learn a dynamic model to reduce the number of interactions with real-world environments. However, due to estimation error, rollouts in the learned model, especially those of long horizons, fail to match the ones in real-world environments. This mismatching has seriously…
This article reviews recent advances in convex optimization algorithms for Big Data, which aim to reduce the computational, storage, and communications bottlenecks. We provide an overview of this emerging field, describe contemporary approximation techniques like first-order methods and randomization for scalability, a…
Simple method for estimating missing panel data entries with confidence intervals.
problem Estimating missing values in panel data with staggered adoption.
method Simple matrix algebra and singular value decomposition for estimation, with data-driven confidence intervals.
result Confidence intervals match non-asymptotic lower bounds, proving instance optimality.
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
CoDistill-GRPO improves small models in GRPO by distilling knowledge from a larger model.
problem Small models in GRPO struggle with sparse rewards on difficult tasks.
method Simultaneously trains a large and small model using co-distillation and GRPO objectives.
result Significant improvement in small model performance over standard GRPO on mathematical benchmarks.
Study examines how COVID-19 vaccine companies' popularity affects their stock prices.
problem Impact of COVID-19 vaccine development and rollout on stock prices and company popularity.
method Used Python and various libraries to analyze Google Trends data and stock prices of five vaccine companies.
result Significant correlation between Google Trend data and stock prices, with post-rollout periods showing a slight negative correlation.
New method finds unseen states for RL, improving performance.
problem Offline RL struggles with unseen states and actions.
method Value-informed state perturbations and filtering.
result Improved performance in offline RL tasks.
Theory for RLHF generalization under reward shift and clipped KL.
problem Theoretical understanding of RLHF generalization, especially with reward shift and clipped KL.
method Developed generalization theory for RLHF, accounting for reward shift and clipped KL.
result Presented generalization bounds for RLHF, suggesting generalization error from sampling, reward shift, and KL clipping.
InfoTree improves reinforcement learning by optimizing tool use with a greedy submodular approach.
problem Maximizing information from tool use in reinforcement learning with limited resources.
method Formalizes Rollout Informativeness, recasts state selection as submodular maximization, and uses UUCB and ABA.
result InfoTree outperforms existing methods across various benchmarks, improving performance by 18.2% on average.
This paper introduces a simple, general framework for likelihood-free Bayesian reinforcement learning, through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The main advantage is that we only require a prior distribution on a class of simulators (generative models). This is useful in domains where an analytical probabilistic…
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.
sGPO optimizes RLVR training by balancing inference FLOPs and training efficiency.
problem RLVR training allocates rollout budget without considering query difficulty.
method sGPO trades inference FLOPs for reduced training FLOPs.
result sGPO matches or exceeds baseline performance while reducing training compute by a factor of three.
Several approximate policy iteration schemes without value functions, which focus on policy representation using classifiers and address policy learning as a supervised learning problem, have been proposed recently. Finding good policies with such methods requires not only an appropriate classifier, but also reliable e…
Optimizing news headlines is important for publishers and media sites. A compelling headline will increase readership, user engagement and social shares. At Yahoo Front Page, headline testing is carried out using a test-rollout strategy: we first allocate equal proportion of the traffic to each headline variation for a…
Digital transformation boosts corporate financial asset allocation, especially short-term.
problem Understanding how digital transformation affects corporate financial decisions.
method Fixed-effects models and staggered DID design using A-share listed companies data.
result Digital transformation significantly promotes corporate financial asset allocation, more pronounced in short-term.
New method optimizes language model performance for test-time strategies.
problem Mismatch between training objectives and test-time deployment of large language models.
method Tail-Extrapolated estimators to approximate best-of-N performance from limited training rollouts.
result Improved performance of best-of-N deployment across various models and datasets.
This paper optimizes sampling policies for Bayesian optimization to improve exploration and exploitation.
problem Improving the balance between exploration and exploitation in Bayesian optimization.
method Developed efficient methods to estimate and optimize non-myopic acquisition functions using rollout policies and stochastic gradient optimization.
result Efficient optimization of sampling policies leads to better performance in Bayesian optimization.
UWM-JEPA predicts future scenarios in belief space, improving accuracy in partially observed environments.
problem Predicting future scenarios in partially observed environments with uncertainty.
method Introduces UWM-JEPA, a JEPA world model with a density-matrix latent and learned unitary predictor.
result UWM-JEPA achieves 0.77 accuracy on a hidden-velocity indicator task, outperforming LSTM-JEPA.
Bayesian inference models failure distributions in autonomous systems.
problem Estimating the distribution of failures in complex systems.
method Bayesian inference using system dynamics rollouts and gradient computation.
result Improves sample efficiency and parameter space coverage in autonomous systems.
We consider a numerical approach for the incompressible surface Navier-Stokes equation. The approach is based on the covariant form and uses discrete exterior calculus (DEC) in space and a semi-implicit discretization in time. The discretization is described in detail and related to finite difference schemes on stagger…
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms have achieved great success on many challenging benchmarks (e.g., Computer Go). However, they generally require a large number of rollouts, making their applications costly. Furthermore, it is also extremely challenging to parallelize MCTS due to its inherent sequential nature:…
We investigate 17 digital currencies making an analogy with quantum systems and develop the concept of eigenportfolios. We show that the density of states of the correlation matrix of these assets shows a behavior between that of the Wishart ensemble and one whose elements are Cauchy distributed. A metric for the parti…
Monopoly breakup impacts AT&T and AMX's market value by 65% and 32%.
problem Understanding how financial markets value monopoly rents post-breakup.
method Univariate structural time series models to estimate pre-breakup and post-breakup values.
result Monopoly breakup significantly impacts market capitalization, as shown by AT&T and AMX.
Enhances UPSA to reduce noise in financial data.
problem Noise in financial data affects UPSA's performance.
method Time-averaging optimal penalty weights and using Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues.
result Combining time-averaging and Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues improves UPSA's performance.