A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Characterizes Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes linked to tempered stable distributions.
SignSGD outperforms SGD in linear regression with optimal scaling laws under PLRF model.
Proposes a new risk model using stable laws to manage company-wide losses.
In this paper we perform a statistical analysis of the high-frequency returns of the IBEX35 Madrid stock exchange index. We find that its probability distribution seems to be stable over different time scales, a stylized fact observed in many different financial time series. However, an in-depth analysis of the data us…
The study examines order flow in financial markets using fractional Lévy stable motion.
Price fluctuations in financial markets can be characterized by Lévy's stable distribution, which is supported by the generalized central limit system. When the stable parameters were estimated from four different stock markets in long term, they similarly indicated an unique value. On the other hand, when analyzed in …
A new distribution family extends the -stable distribution with a degree of freedom parameter.
Random matrix theory is used to assess the significance of weak correlations and is well established for Gaussian statistics. However, many complex systems, with stock markets as a prominent example, exhibit statistics with power-law tails, that can be modelled with Levy stable distributions. We review comprehensively …
It is now well established empirically that financial price changes are distributed according to a power law, with cubic exponent. This is a fascinating regularity, as it holds for various classes of securities, on various markets, and on various time scales. The universality of this law suggests that there must be som…
Pareto's law states that the distribution of personal income obeys a power-law in the high-income range, and has been supported by international observations. Researchers have proposed models over a century since its discovery. However, the dynamical nature of personal income has been little studied hitherto, mostly du…
We study how the presence of correlations in physical variables contributes to the form of probability distributions. We investigate a process with correlations in the variance generated by (i) a Gaussian or (ii) a truncated Lévy distribution. For both (i) and (ii), we find that due to the correlations in the variance,…
The concepts of scale invariance, self-similarity and scaling have been fruitfully applied to the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. After a brief review of the properties of stable Levy distributions and their applications to market data we indicate the shortcomings of such models and describe the trunc…
Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.
This paper applies Thompson Sampling to asymmetric -stable bandits for financial and wireless data.
We analyze the Levy processes produced by means of two interconnected classes of non stable, infinitely divisible distribution: the Variance Gamma and the Student laws. While the Variance Gamma family is closed under convolution, the Student one is not: this makes its time evolution more complicated. We prove that -- a…
The paper presents a multi-power law for predicting loss curves across different learning rate schedules.
Using a model based on generalised Lotka Volterra dynamics together with some recent results for the solution of generalised Langevin equations, we show that the equilibrium solution for the probability distribution of wealth has two characteristic regimes. For large values of wealth it takes the form of a Pareto style…
We show power-scaling behaviors for fluctuations in share volume, which no other studies have so far done. After analyzing a database of the daily transactions for all securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, we selected 1050 large companies that each had an unbroken series of daily trading activity from January …
Method extracts stochastic systems with Lévy noise from data.
This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size needed to establish a comparative needed for statistical significance, 2) allows…
We discover scaling laws for kernel regression loss under various learning rate schedules.
Price fluctuations of commodities like cotton and wheat are thought to display probability distributions of returns that follow a Lévy stable distribution. Recent analysis of stocks and foreign exchange markets show that the probability distributions are not Lévy stable, a plausible result since commodity markets have …
We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book, we can extra…
Taylor's law of temporal fluctuation scaling, variance mean, is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences. We report for the first time convincing evidence of a solid temporal fluctuation scaling law in stock illiquidity by investigating the mean-variance relationship of the high-frequency illiquidity o…
This study reveals statistical patterns in ERC20 token transactions on Ethereum blockchain.
Deep learning is built on the foundational guarantee that gradient descent on an objective function converges to local minima. Unfortunately, this guarantee fails in settings, such as generative adversarial nets, that exhibit multiple interacting losses. The behavior of gradient-based methods in games is not well under…
We simplify Volterra process predictions by reducing dimensionality and using a tailored deep learning model.
In the present paper, we discuss contra-arguments concerning the use of Pareto-Levý distributions for modeling in Finance. It appears that such probability laws do not provide sufficient number of outliers observed in real data. Connection with the classical limit theorem for heavy-tailed distributions with such type o…
We consider returns of two Korean stock market indices, KOSPI and KOSDAQ index. Central parts of the probability distribution function of returns are well fitted by the Lorentzian distribution function. However, tail parts of the probability distribution function follow a power law behavior well. We found that the prob…
This paper studies Thompson sampling's arm-pull dynamics and inference, revealing key differences from UCB algorithms.
Financial time series typically exhibit strong fluctuations that cannot be described by a Gaussian distribution. In recent empirical studies of stock market indices it was examined whether the distribution P(r) of returns r(tau) after some time tau can be described by a (truncated) Levy-stable distribution L_{alpha}(r)…
We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …
The paper examines the short-time implied volatility of additive processes and finds key parameters.
Standard bubbles and partitions are stable in various model spaces.
The article shows how to count small eigenvalues without assuming Morse functions.
We investigate a class of feature allocation models that generalize the Indian buffet process and are parameterized by Gibbs-type random measures. Two existing classes are contained as special cases: the original two-parameter Indian buffet process, corresponding to the Dirichlet process, and the stable (or three-param…
Stabilized neural differential equations enforce constraints on dynamical systems.
There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that th…
We study a stochastic multiplicative system composed of finite asynchronous elements to describe the wealth evolution in financial markets. We find that the wealth fluctuations or returns of this system can be described by a walk with correlated step sizes obeying truncated Levy-like distribution, and the cross-correla…
This work extracts stochastic dynamical systems with -stable Lévy noise.
The CGMY model's ATM call-price asymptotics are derived using characteristic function.
DSPM models control noise volatility, improving financial data analysis.
We study the crash dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) by using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) networks. We find the transition of the complex network during its evolution from a (hierarchical) power law MST network, representing the stable state of WSE before the recent worldwide financial crash, to a superst…
Study prices energy derivatives using specific stochastic processes.
Signatures of universality are detected by comparing individual eigenvalue distributions and level spacings from financial covariance matrices to random matrix predictions. A chopping procedure is devised in order to produce a statistical ensemble of asset-price covariances from a single instance of financial data sets…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of on the expectation and higher moments of the random variable. For instance, the moments of a right-tailed or right-asymmetric varia…
We introduce a simple model for equity index derivatives. The model generalizes well known Lèvy Normal Tempered Stable processes (e.g. NIG and VG) with time dependent parameters. It accurately fits Equity index implied volatility surfaces in the whole time range of quoted instruments, including small time horizon (few …
We examine the performance of six estimators of the power-law cross-correlations -- the detrended cross-correlation analysis, the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis, the height cross-correlation analysis, the averaged periodogram estimator, the cross-periodogram estimator and the local cross-Whittle e…