A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model predicts sponsorship ROI using renewal probability.
E-commerce sponsored search contributes an important part of revenue for the e-commerce company. In consideration of effectiveness and efficiency, a large-scale sponsored search system commonly adopts a multi-stage architecture. We name these stages as ad retrieval, ad pre-ranking and ad ranking. Ad retrieval and ad pr…
Optimizes ad pruning in sponsored search systems using reinforcement learning.
On most sponsored search platforms, advertisers bid on some keywords for their advertisements (ads). Given a search request, ad retrieval module rewrites the query into bidding keywords, and uses these keywords as keys to select Top N ads through inverted indexes. In this way, an ad will not be retrieved even if querie…
Sponsored search in E-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Taobao and Tmall provides sellers an effective way to reach potential buyers with most relevant purpose. In this paper, we study the auction mechanism optimization problem in sponsored search on Alibaba's mobile E-commerce platform. Besides generating revenue, we…
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
In sponsored search, keyword recommendations help advertisers to achieve much better performance within limited budget. Many works have been done to mine numerous candidate keywords from search logs or landing pages. However, the strategy to select from given candidates remains to be improved. The existing relevance-ba…
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
Proposes a pricing agent using reinforcement learning to balance renewable energy demand.
Characterizes measures preserving compound mixed renewal process properties.
In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we s…
Paper develops framework for valuing and assessing credit risk in renewable PPAs.
Machine learning models outperform traditional actuarial methods in predicting health insurance costs.
Optimizes renewable energy mix to meet carbon-free targets at lowest cost.
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
In this study we model the warranty claims process and evaluate the warranty servicing costs under non-renewing and renewing free repair warranties. We assume that the repair time for rectifying the claims is non-zero and the repair cost is a function of the length of the repair time. To accommodate the ageing of the p…
Modeling price formation in intraday electricity markets with renewable generation.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
Variable renewables can avoid market value decline with policy changes.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
Calculation of an optimal tariff is a principal challenge for pricing actuaries. In this contribution we are concerned with the renewal insurance business discussing various mathematical aspects of calculation of an optimal renewal tariff. Our motivation comes from two important actuarial tasks, namely a) construction …
Unified framework for intermittent demand forecasting using renewal processes.
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
Paper develops deep models for forecasting intermittent demand.
We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers v…
Fossil power firms have recently profited more than renewables, but this may be a temporary phenomenon.
We analyze the data of the Italian and U.S. futures on the stock markets and we test the validity of the Continuous Time Random Walk assumption for the survival probability of the returns time series via a renewal aging experiment. We also study the survival probability of returns sign and apply a coarse graining proce…
Paper studies second order tail probabilities in risk models.
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
Paper uses Gaussian processes to solve AC-OPF with renewable uncertainty.
A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. …
Alternative proof for ribbon surfaces in 3D space.
In this paper, we present an online reinforcement learning algorithm, called Renewal Monte Carlo (RMC), for infinite horizon Markov decision processes with a designated start state. RMC is a Monte Carlo algorithm and retains the advantages of Monte Carlo methods including low bias, simplicity, and ease of implementatio…
Predicting the click-through rate of an advertisement is a critical component of online advertising platforms. In sponsored search, the click-through rate estimates the probability that a displayed advertisement is clicked by a user after she submits a query to the search engine. Commercial search engines typically rel…
Examines climate financing for renewable energy projects using structured funds.
New method controls renewable energy storage and portfolio selection with probabilistic constraints.
Ribbonness proven for slice knots, solving an old question.
Statistical depth metrics help identify risky power grid scenarios.
This is the introduction and bibliography for lecture notes of a course given at the Summer School on Noncommutative Geometry and Applications, sponsored by the European Mathematical Society, at Monsaraz and Lisboa, Portugal, September 1-10, 1997. In the published version, an epilogue of recent developments and many ne…
Study shows targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes is most effective for financial aid renewal.
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…
MLM models match or exceed RN in generating wind power time series without location info.
This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…