A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In an informal way, a number of thoughts on the financial crisis 2008 are presented from a physicist's viewpoint, considering the problem as a nonergodicity transition of a spin-glass type of system. Some tentative suggestions concerning the way out of the crisis are also discussed, concerning Keynesian "deficit spendi…
We consider the problem of rational decision making in the presence of nonlinear constraints. By using tools borrowed from spin glass and random matrix theory, we focus on the portfolio optimisation problem. We show that the number of ``optimal'' solutions is generically exponentially large: rationality is thus de fact…
Generative model learns spin-glass dynamics and properties.
Statistical learning theory connects to spin glass models via Rademacher complexity and replica theory.
Derives TAP approximation for Bayesian linear regression.
We analyze operational risk in terms of a spin glass model. Several regimes are investigated, as a functions of the parameters that characterize the dynamics. The system is found to be robust against variations of these parameters. We unveil the presence of limit cycles and scrutinize the features of the asymptotic sta…
The study reveals the spectral structure of attention layers and its implications for generalization.
Restricted Boltzmann Machines are described by the Gibbs measure of a bipartite spin glass, which in turn corresponds to the one of a generalised Hopfield network. This equivalence allows us to characterise the state of these systems in terms of retrieval capabilities, both at low and high load. We study the paramagnet…
Injectivity of ReLU networks studied using statistical physics.
This thesis explores emergent intelligence in disordered systems like spin glasses and neural networks.
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
Study higher-order spin glass models for social network behavior with peer-group effects.
We study the problem of detecting the presence of a single unknown spike in a rectangular data matrix, in a high-dimensional regime where the spike has fixed strength and the aspect ratio of the matrix converges to a finite limit. This setup includes Johnstone's spiked covariance model. We analyze the likelihood ratio …
A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is expressed by spin-spin interactions as in spin glass models of disordered magnetic sys…
Study free energy in spherical spin glasses, proving universality dichotomy.
Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they comprise many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price…
Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are energy-based neural-networks which are commonly used as the building blocks for deep architectures neural architectures. In this work, we derive a deterministic framework for the training, evaluation, and use of RBMs based upon the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) mean-field appro…
In this article we use the Mean-Variance Model in order to measure the current market state. In our study we take the approach of detecting the overall alignment of portfolios in the spin picture. The projection to the ground-states enables us to use physical observables in order to describe the current state of the ex…
Sharp asymptotics reveal how network width controls learnability in quadratic neural networks.
New insights into optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria reveal surprising complexity.
New approach uses random matrix theory to understand tensor estimation performance.
We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin…
Deep learning has become a powerful and popular tool for a variety of machine learning tasks. However, it is challenging to understand the mechanism of deep learning from a theoretical perspective. In this work, we propose a random active path model to study collective properties of deep neural networks with binary syn…
Minimal DAMs can recognize patterns in high noise, even with minimal data.
One of the biggest challenges in the field of biomedical imaging is the comprehension and the exploitation of the photon scattering through disordered media. Many studies have pursued the solution to this puzzle, achieving light-focusing control or reconstructing images in complex media. In the present work, we investi…
In this paper I give a brief introduction to a family of simple but non-trivial models designed to increase our understanding of collective processes in markets, the so-called Minority Games, and their non-equilibrium statistical mathematical analysis. Since the most commonly studied members of this family define disor…
Unified approach learns Ising models from various dynamics and data types.
Recently proposed models which learn to write computer programs from data use either input/output examples or rich execution traces. Instead, we argue that a novel alternative is to use a glass-box loss function, given as a program itself that can be directly inspected. Glass-box optimization covers a wide range of pro…
Deep neural networks are workhorse models in machine learning with multiple layers of non-linear functions composed in series. Their loss function is highly non-convex, yet empirically even gradient descent minimisation is sufficient to arrive at accurate and predictive models. It is hitherto unknown why are deep neura…
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
Gradient span algorithms show consistent progress in high dimensions.
We propose a hierarchy for approximate inference based on the Dobrushin, Lanford, Ruelle (DLR) equations. This hierarchy includes existing algorithms, such as belief propagation, and also motivates novel algorithms such as factorized neighbors (FN) algorithms and variants of mean field (MF) algorithms. In particular, w…
Finding minima of a real valued non-convex function over a high dimensional space is a major challenge in science. We provide evidence that some such functions that are defined on high dimensional domains have a narrow band of values whose pre-image contains the bulk of its critical points. This is in contrast with the…
DNAMite creates interpretable, calibrated survival analysis models.
In a previous paper we constructed classical spin Chern-Simons for any compact Lie group : a gauge theory whose action depends on the spin structure of the 3-manifold. Here we apply geometric quantization to the classical Hamiltonian theory and investigate the formal properties of the partition function in the Lagra…
GLASS Flows improves flow and diffusion model performance by optimizing sampling efficiency.
New spin on Hurwitz theory connects to Gromov-Witten theory and topological recursion.
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where th…
Bayesian model improves BCI performance for ALS users.
Explains deep learning models and their geometric properties.
New method generates equilibrium glass configurations efficiently.
Study instantons on asymptotically conical Spin(7)-manifolds, identifying deformation spaces.
The local geometry of high dimensional neural network loss landscapes can both challenge our cherished theoretical intuitions as well as dramatically impact the practical success of neural network training. Indeed recent works have observed 4 striking local properties of neural loss landscapes on classification tasks: …
Classifies invariant spin structures on spheres.
We give a combinatorial model for r-spin surfaces with parametrised boundary based on Novak (2015). The r-spin structure is encoded in terms of -valued indices assigned to the edges of a polygonal decomposition. This combinatorial model is designed for our state sum construction of two-dimensional topolog…
Unified Higgs bundle vacua from M-theory on Spin(7) spaces.
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of futu…
Classifies Spin(7) structures on compact 8-manifolds with abelian fundamental group.