A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study on estimating rank-one tensors in noisy data with heavy tails.
problem Estimating rank-one spiked tensors in the presence of heavy tailed errors.
method Analysis of spectral norm of random tensors with iid entries.
result Signal strength requirements for optimal estimation are similar for heavy tailed and Gaussian noise, but vanish for noise with finite fourth moment.
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that r…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a quantile spectral beta representation of risk based on the decomposition of cova…
New insights into why neural networks generalize well.
problem Understanding why neural networks generalize well despite heavy-tailed weight distributions.
method Developed a simple model to analyze the emergence of heavy-tailed empirical spectral densities (ESDs) in two-layer neural networks without gradient noise.
result Learning rates play a crucial role in shaping the ESDs of two-layer neural networks, leading to better generalization.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference ΔραX,Y:=ρα(X+Y)−ρα(X) as α→1, where ρα is a risk measure equipped with a confidence level parameter 0<α<1, and where X and Y are non-negative random variables whose tail probability functions are regularly varying. The case where …
We prove exponential decay of correlations for Hölder continuous observables with respect to any Gibbs measure for contact Anosov flows admitting Pesin sets with exponentially small tails. This is achieved by establishing strong spectral estimates for certain Ruelle transfer operators for such flows.
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
We study the algorithmic problem of estimating the mean of heavy-tailed random vector in Rd, given n i.i.d. samples. The goal is to design an efficient estimator that attains the optimal sub-gaussian error bound, only assuming that the random vector has bounded mean and covariance. Polynomial-time solutio…
We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the s…
Random matrix theory is used to assess the significance of weak correlations and is well established for Gaussian statistics. However, many complex systems, with stock markets as a prominent example, exhibit statistics with power-law tails, that can be modelled with Levy stable distributions. We review comprehensively …
The goal in extreme multi-label classification is to learn a classifier which can assign a small subset of relevant labels to an instance from an extremely large set of target labels. Datasets in extreme classification exhibit a long tail of labels which have small number of positive training instances. In this work, w…
This paper develops a new theory for ensemble learning beyond variance reduction.
problem Ensemble learning's effectiveness for stable estimators is not fully explained by variance reduction.
method Develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning, formalizing ensembles as linear operators and introducing geometric and spectral constraints.
result Structured weights can outperform uniform averaging by reshaping approximation geometry and redistributing spectral complexity.
Random Matrix Theory (RMT) is applied to analyze the weight matrices of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), including both production quality, pre-trained models such as AlexNet and Inception, and smaller models trained from scratch, such as LeNet5 and a miniature-AlexNet. Empirical and theoretical results clearly indicate th…
We propose a new definition for the abelian magnetic charge density of a non-abelian monopole, based on zero-modes of an associated Dirac operator. Unlike the standard definition of the charge density, this density is smooth in the core of the monopole. We show that this charge density induces a magnetic field whose ex…
We analyze the Bombay stock exchange (BSE) price index over the period of last 12 years. Keeping in mind the large fluctuations in last few years, we carefully find out the transient, non-statistical and locally structured variations. For that purpose, we make use of Daubechies wavelet and characterize the fractal beha…
Correlation matrices play a key role in many multivariate methods (e.g., graphical model estimation and factor analysis). The current state-of-the-art in estimating large correlation matrices focuses on the use of Pearson's sample correlation matrix. Although Pearson's sample correlation matrix enjoys various good prop…