arXiv research

Study uses spectral risk for learning with heavy-tailed data.

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular …

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how th…

Paper estimates spectral risk measures for insurance data with truncated and censored data.

A new measure quantifies how risk-averse different risk measures are.

We study Spectral Measures of Risk from the perspective of portfolio optimization. We derive exact results which extend to general Spectral Measures M_phi the Pflug--Rockafellar--Uryasev methodology for the minimization of alpha--Expected Shortfall. The minimization problem of a spectral measure is shown to be equivale…

Spectral risk measures (SRMs) are risk measures that take account of user riskaversion, but to date there has been little guidance on the choice of utility function underlying them. This paper addresses this issue by examining alternative approaches based on exponential and power utility functions. A number of problems…

New algorithms optimize spectral risk measures, improving interpolation between average and worst-case performance.

In this paper we propose the notion of continuous-time dynamic spectral risk-measure (DSR). Adopting a Poisson random measure setting, we define this class of dynamic coherent risk-measures in terms of certain backward stochastic differential equations. By establishing a functional limit theorem, we show that DSRs may …

We propose an iterative gradient-based algorithm to efficiently solve the portfolio selection problem with multiple spectral risk constraints. Since the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a special case of the spectral risk measure, our algorithm solves portfolio selection problems with multiple CVaR constraints. In e…

Stochastic optimization problems often involve the expectation in its objective. When risk is incorporated in the problem description as well, then risk measures have to be involved in addition to quantify the acceptable risk, often in the objective. For this purpose it is important to have an adjusted, adapted and eff…

This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that r…

This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on …

Proposes a new framework for risk-sensitive RL using deep nets.

A new method for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning using Spectral Risk Measures.

Optimizes risk measures given known marginal distributions of two unknown factors.

Study minimizes risk in MDPs with spectral measures.

Paper proposes a new DRL algorithm optimizing Spectral Risk Measures for better risk management.

Risk assessment under different possible scenarios is a source of uncertainty that may lead to concerning financial losses. We address this issue, first, by adapting a robust framework to the class of spectral risk measures. Second, we propose a Deviation-based approach to quantify uncertainty. Furthermore, the theory …

The paper analyzes the generalization performance of spectral clustering algorithms and proposes new methods to improve their effectiveness.

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures …

Robo-advisors estimate clients' risk aversion using interactive questionnaires.

Hybrid model combines risk measures for better portfolio allocation.

We identify spectral conditions for reliable neural probe interpretation.

Unified framework explains why overfitting is benign in interpolating learning.

This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a quantile spectral beta representation of risk based on the decomposition of cova…

Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.

Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.

ACFS optimizes spectral risk under decision-dependent uncertainty using adaptive forest sampling.

In this paper, we obtain analytical expression for the distribution of the occupation time in the red (below level $0$) up to an (independent) exponential horizon for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes and refracted spectrally negative Lévy risk processes. This result improves the existing literature in which only…

We consider the problem of estimating a spectral risk measure (SRM) from i.i.d. samples, and propose a novel method that is based on numerical integration. We show that our SRM estimate concentrates exponentially, when the underlying distribution has bounded support. Further, we also consider the case when the underlyi…

In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $ζ>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative Lévy insurance risk process. For this class of processes we identify expression for ruin probability in terms of some other quan…

In this paper, we develop an approach to recursively estimate the quadratic risk for matrix recovery problems regularized with spectral functions. Toward this end, in the spirit of the SURE theory, a key step is to compute the (weak) derivative and divergence of a solution with respect to the observations. As such a so…

We study a space of coherent risk measures M_phi obtained as certain expansions of coherent elementary basis measures. In this space, the concept of ``Risk Aversion Function'' phi naturally arises as the spectral representation of each risk measure in a space of functions of confidence level probabilities. We give nece…

For graphs generated from stochastic blockmodels, adjacency spectral embedding is asymptotically consistent. Further, adjacency spectral embedding composed with universally consistent classifiers is universally consistent to achieve the Bayes error. However when the graph contains private or sensitive information, trea…

Spectral analysis detects structural changes in financial networks.

In this paper, we introduce the concept of \emph{Poissonian occupation times} below level $0$ of spectrally negative Lévy processes. In this case, occupation time is accumulated only when the process is observed to be negative at arrival epochs of an independent Poisson process. Our results extend some well known conti…

We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference $Δρ^{X, Y}_α:= ρ_α(X + Y) - ρ_α(X)$ as $α\rightarrow 1$, where $ρ_α$ is a risk measure equipped with a confidence level parameter $0 < α< 1$, and where $X$ and $Y$ are non-negative random variables whose tail probability functions are regularly varying. The case where …

Beyond existing multi-view clustering, this paper studies a more realistic clustering scenario, referred to as incomplete multi-view clustering, where a number of data instances are missing in certain views. To tackle this problem, we explore spectral perturbation theory. In this work, we show a strong link between per…

In this paper we consider dividend problem for an insurance company whose risk evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments) when Parisian delay is applied. The objective function is given by the cumulative discounted dividends received until the moment of ruin when so-called barri…

A time-varying network reveals community structure in cryptocurrencies.

New approach measures systemic risk by absorbing shocks before financial systems deteriorate.

Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with Lipschitz dynamic risk measures, establishing regret bounds.

Paper approximates risk measures using SGD with Langevin dynamics.

This paper studies game-type credit default swaps that allow the protection buyer and seller to raise or reduce their respective positions once prior to default. This leads to the study of an optimal stopping game subject to early default termination. Under a structural credit risk model based on spectrally negative Le…

Study precise estimators for correlated data using RDT.

In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on $\mathcal{R}_L^p$, the space of càdlàg processes having Laplace transform. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive Lévy process. Moreover, w…

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …