Framework for precise recall control in spatial conflation tasks.
problem Precise recall control in large-scale spatial conflation tasks to avoid downstream analytics failures and excessive manual review.
method End-to-end framework using equigrid bounding-box filter, CSR representation, neural ranker, and inverse-variance weighted ensemble of threshold estimators.
result Achieves exact recall with sub-percent variance over tens of millions of geometry pairs, runs on a single TPU v3 core.
Reply to Tetlock et al. on tail risk and probability gap.
problem Expert judgment fails to account for tail risk.
method Comparison of forecasting tournaments and extreme value theory.
result Greater gap between tail expectation and probability properties.
Signed pairwise interactions conflate uniqueness, redundancy, and synergy
problem Signed pairwise interactions conflate uniqueness, redundancy, and synergy
method Stochastic Hi-Fi
result Stochastic Hi-Fi recovers structure missed by scalar baselines
What do binary (or probabilistic) forecasting abilities have to do with overall performance? We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and "beliefs" (expressed as a specific "event" will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits or harm from an event) and sh…
Braided vector fields on spatial subdomains homeomorphic to the cylinder play a crucial role in applications such as solar and plasma physics, relativistic astrophysics, fluid and vortex dynamics, elasticity, and bio-elasticity. Often the vector field's topology -- the entanglement of its field lines -- is non-trivial,…
New acquisition function improves batch Bayesian active learning.
problem BatchBALD conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance.
method Focus on predictive probabilities to separate epistemic uncertainty, leading to better performance and faster evaluation.
result The new acquisition function performs better and allows for larger batches.
OOD detection methods often misidentify OOD points, leading to ineffective safety improvements.
problem Improving model safety through OOD detection methods often leads to incorrect identification of out-of-distribution points.
method Re-examine popular OOD detection procedures based on predictive uncertainty or features of supervised models trained on in-distribution data.
result Popular OOD detection methods incorrectly conflate high uncertainty and far feature-space distance with being out-of-distribution.
When machine predictors can achieve higher performance than the human decision-makers they support, improving the performance of human decision-makers is often conflated with improving machine accuracy. Here we propose a framework to directly support human decision-making, in which the role of machines is to reframe pr…
Spatial blind source separation simplifies multivariate spatial prediction.
problem Predicting multivariate measurements at unobserved locations with spatial dependencies.
method Spatial blind source separation as a pre-processing tool compared to Cokriging and neural networks.
result Spatial blind source separation simplifies spatial prediction by avoiding cross-dependencies.
The paper introduces groupoid racks for spatial surfaces.
problem Coloring diagrams of spatial surfaces for invariant calculation.
method Introduces groupoid racks with universal properties.
result Groupoid racks provide an invariant for spatial surfaces.
Machine learning algorithms find frequent application in spatial prediction of biotic and abiotic environmental variables. However, the characteristics of spatial data, especially spatial autocorrelation, are widely ignored. We hypothesize that this is problematic and results in models that can reproduce training data …
STICC clusters geographic objects considering both spatial contiguity and attributes.
problem Discovering repeated geographic patterns with spatial contiguity.
method Spatial Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering (STICC) method.
result STICC significantly outperforms baseline methods in adjusted rand index and macro-F1 score.
Spatial understanding is a fundamental problem with wide-reaching real-world applications. The representation of spatial knowledge is often modeled with spatial templates, i.e., regions of acceptability of two objects under an explicit spatial relationship (e.g., "on", "below", etc.). In contrast with prior work that r…
Defines non-parabolic curves in spatial hybrid space with applications.
problem Defining and analyzing non-parabolic spatial hybrid framed curves.
method Definition and proof of existence and uniqueness theorem for non-parabolic spatial hybrid framed curves.
result Existence and uniqueness theorem for non-parabolic spatial hybrid framed curves.
A framework converts spatial data into embeddings for insurance risk modelling.
problem Improving underwriting precision and risk management in insurance with spatial data.
method Multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings.
result Spatial embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across various models.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in the conditional product convergence in the parishes' economies of mainland Portugal between 1991 and 2001 (the last year with data available for this spatial disaggregation level). To analyse the data, Moran's I statistic…
This paper reviews spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models.
problem Capturing spatial dependence in volatility of spatial and spatiotemporal data.
method Review of time series volatility models and their extensions.
result Comparison and practical recommendations for spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models.
PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.
problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.
The understanding of geographical reality is a process of data representation and pattern discovery. Former studies mainly adopted continuous-field models to represent spatial variables and to investigate the underlying spatial continuity/heterogeneity in the regular spatial domain. In this article, we introduce a more…
New method estimates spatial weights matrix for lattice data, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Estimating spatial dependence structure for regular lattice data.
method Adaptive lasso with cross-sectional resampling to estimate sparse spatial weights matrix.
result Improves prediction accuracy of nitrogen dioxide concentrations.
Accurately determining dependency structure is critical to discovering a system's causal organization. We recently showed that the transfer entropy fails in a key aspect of this---measuring information flow---due to its conflation of dyadic and polyadic relationships. We extend this observation to demonstrate that this…
NCS enables efficient and accurate conditional simulation for complex spatial processes.
problem Challenges in simulating from complex spatial process distributions.
method Neural diffusion models and conditional score-based diffusion.
result NCS outperforms traditional methods in efficiency and accuracy.
Grid homology theory for spatial graphs extends skein sequence.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on extending a sequence.
method Defined grid homology theory for spatial graphs and extended skein sequence.
result Skein exact sequence extended to grid homology for spatial graphs.
Spatial Adapter adds structured spatial representation to frozen predictors.
problem Efficiently adding spatial structure to pre-trained models.
method Structured spatial decomposition and closed-form covariance for residual fields.
result Adapter improves spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification.
Investigates transfer learning in spatial statistics.
problem Applying transfer learning to spatial statistics.
method Simple MLP models for spatial data.
result Potential of transfer learning in spatial statistics.
New invariants distinguish spatial graphs not previously possible.
problem Distinguishing spatial graphs using Dehn colorings.
method Developed vertex-weight invariants based on Dehn colorings.
result Found spatial graphs distinguishable by vertex-weight invariants.
Bayesian spatial predictive synthesis improves spatial data predictions.
problem Model misspecification and heterogeneity in spatial data.
method Bayesian ensemble methodology capturing spatially-varying model uncertainty and performance heterogeneity.
result Synthesized predictions outperform standard methods in accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Spatially constrained Gaussian mixture models reduce covariance complexity.
problem High dimensionality in finite mixture models for spatial data.
method Spatial covariance constraint with only four free parameters.
result Improves clustering of multi-way spatial data and inference of spatial patterns.
Proposes LSCP for spatial data uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatial statistics, especially for complex and heterogeneous datasets.
method Localized quantile regression for spatial conformal prediction.
result LSCP provides more accurate and consistent prediction intervals.
SpaCE tackles spatial confounding in scientific studies.
problem Spatial confounding influences treatment and outcome, leading to spurious associations.
method Introduces SpaCE toolkit for benchmark datasets and tools to evaluate causal inference methods.
result Facilitates automated evaluation of machine learning and causal inference models.
The consideration of spatial effects at a regional level is becoming increasingly frequent and the work of Anselin (1988), among others, has contributed to this. This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker) in the NUTs III economic …
Model nonstationary spatial processes using normalizing flows.
problem Difficult selection of spatial warping functions.
method Neural autoregressive flows (NAFs) for complex, high-dimensional warpings.
result NAFs model has greater representational capacity than other spatial process models.
Spatial Deconfounder tackles interference and confounding in spatial data.
problem Interference and unmeasured spatial factors confound causal inference in spatial domains.
method Two-stage method using CVAE with spatial prior to reconstruct confounder, then estimate causal effects.
result Nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions.
Algorithm determines spatial graph isomorphism with vertex, edge colorings and orientations.
problem Algorithmic recognition of spatial graphs with various colorings and orientations.
method Proved existence of an algorithm for isomorphic spatial graphs, decomposed into canonical blocks, and applied Haken and Matveev's result.
result Algorithmic recognition of spatial graphs with colorings and orientations.
Hybrid framework merges data and domain knowledge for better spatial interpolation.
problem Spatial interpolation overlooks domain knowledge and limits to spatial coordinates.
method Integrates data-driven features with rule-assisted spatial dependency function mapping.
result Superior performance in two application scenarios, capturing localized features.
Proves minimal crossing diagrams for specific spatial graphs.
problem Proving minimal crossing diagrams for spatial graphs.
method Analyzing adequate diagrams and replacing vertices and edges.
result All 1-vertex spatial graphs with adequate diagrams have minimal crossing number.
New results on splitting tangles and spatial graphs.
problem Issues with previous splitting results about tangles and spatial graphs.
method Generalization of Menasco's result to other classes of links, tangles, and spatial graphs.
result New more general results for tangles and spatial graphs.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and …
Spatial audio is an essential medium to audiences for 3D visual and auditory experience. However, the recording devices and techniques are expensive or inaccessible to the general public. In this work, we propose a self-supervised audio spatialization network that can generate spatial audio given the corresponding vide…
Paper proposes efficient multivariate spatial Fay-Herriot models using variational autoencoders.
problem Estimating population characteristics in small areas with limited data.
method Integrates multivariate spatial Fay-Herriot model with variational autoencoders to leverage spatial structure efficiently.
result Significant computational efficiency improvements for high-dimensional datasets.
Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.
problem Predicting the number of events in space with uncertainty.
method Regularized method to learn spatial models with out-of-sample guarantees.
result Method provides valid prediction intervals even when model is misspecified.
Defines concordance for spatial graphs and proves sliceness equivalence.
problem Understanding concordance and sliceness for spatial graphs.
method Smooth definitions and linking number conditions.
result Sliceness of a spatial graph is equivalent to a condition on linking numbers and a link.
CNNs predict spatial fields from sparse data.
problem Predicting complete spatial fields from limited observations.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) trained on a single partially observed field.
result CNNs can flexibly capture local spatial patterns without explicit covariance modeling.
Modern portfolio theory(MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to al…
A new model predicts financial volatility across firms using spatial correlations.
problem Predicting financial volatility across firms in a network.
method Heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model with local likelihood estimation.
result The model captures spatial spillovers and contagion effects in financial networks.
Proposes flexible spatial models for better understanding spatial heterogeneity.
problem Poor characterisation of spatial heterogeneity in conventional models.
method Spatial Bayesian Neural Networks (SBNNs) incorporating a spatial embedding layer and possibly spatially-varying parameters.
result SBNNs better match the finite-dimensional distribution of target spatial processes.
The paper classifies palettes of Dehn colorings for spatial graphs.
problem Classifying spatial graph diagrams using Dehn colorings.
method Examining vertex conditions and palettes for spatial graphs.
result Spatial graphs can be distinguished by the number of Dehn colorings with specific palettes.
The concept of an objective spatial direction in special relativity is investigated and theories assuming light-speed isotropy while accepting the existence of a privileged spatial direction are classified. A natural generalization of the proper time principle is introduced which makes it possible to devise experimenta…