A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Sophisticated volatility models outperform naive portfolio strategies.
Simple models outperformed sophisticated ones in forecasting Turkish lira exchange rates.
Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.
This paper extends the classical consumption and portfolio rules model in continuous time (Merton 1969, 1971) to the framework of decision-makers with time-inconsistent preferences. The model is solved for different utility functions for both, naive and sophisticated agents, and the results are compared. In order to so…
Investment strategies for rank-dependent utility agents are derived in a continuous-time market.
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
Survey of AI in finance covering models, strategies, and knowledge systems.
Paper analyzes venture capital exit decisions under inconsistent preferences.
We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional that renders the problem time-inconsistent. We study stopping decisions of naive agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves…
The paper uncovers two key laws of market impact influenced by volume and participation rate.
Sophisticated gated recurrent neural network architectures like LSTMs and GRUs have been shown to be highly effective in a myriad of applications. We develop an un-gated unit, the statistical recurrent unit (SRU), that is able to learn long term dependencies in data by only keeping moving averages of statistics. The SR…
Machine learning methods are used to discover complex nonlinear relationships in biological and medical data. However, sophisticated learning models are computationally unfeasible for data with millions of features. Here we introduce the first feature selection method for nonlinear learning problems that can scale up t…
Study shows cognitive load impacts financial market efficiency, especially for less sophisticated investors.
Paper explores how black box models can deviate from average performance.
K-Means is one of the most used algorithms for data clustering and the usual clustering method for benchmarking. Despite its wide application it is well-known that it suffers from a series of disadvantages; it is only able to find local minima and the positions of the initial clustering centres (centroids) can greatly …
We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated to random-walk like processes. We numerically demonstrate our scenario in the fr…
In this work, we present an extension of Gaussian process (GP) models with sophisticated parallelization and GPU acceleration. The parallelization scheme arises naturally from the modular computational structure w.r.t. datapoints in the sparse Gaussian process formulation. Additionally, the computational bottleneck is …
Sentiment classification is an important process in understanding people's perception towards a product, service, or topic. Many natural language processing models have been proposed to solve the sentiment classification problem. However, most of them have focused on binary sentiment classification. In this paper, we u…
Artificial neural networks are simple and efficient machine learning tools. Defined originally in the traditional setting of simple vector data, neural network models have evolved to address more and more difficulties of complex real world problems, ranging from time evolving data to sophisticated data structures such …
During the last few years, there has been an interest in comparing simple or heuristic procedures for portfolio selection, such as the naive, equal weights, portfolio choice, against more "sophisticated" portfolio choices, and in explaining why, in some cases, the heuristic choice seems to outperform the sophisticated …
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to asymmetrical views.
We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
Prior to the financial crisis mortgage securitization models increased in sophistication as did products built to insure against losses. Layers of complexity formed upon a foundation that could not support it and as the foundation crumbled the housing market followed. That foundation was the Gaussian copula which faile…
We survey our recent papers (some being joint ones) about the relation between the geometry of a compact Kähler manifold and the existence of automorphisms of positive entropy on it. We also use the language of log minimal model program (LMMP) in biraitonal geometry, but not its more sophisticated technical part. We gi…
We propose a Markov jump process with the three-state herding interaction. We see our approach as an agent-based model for the financial markets. Under certain assumptions this agent-based model can be related to the stochastic description exhibiting sophisticated statistical features. Along with power-law probability …
Uniswap V3 requires more decisions from liquidity providers, making it complex and risky.
A good classification method should yield more accurate results than simple heuristics. But there are classification problems, especially high-dimensional ones like the ones based on image/video data, for which simple heuristics can work quite accurately; the structure of the data in such problems is easy to uncover wi…
Existing high-performance deep learning models require very intensive computing. For this reason, it is difficult to embed a deep learning model into a system with limited resources. In this paper, we propose the novel idea of the network compression as a method to solve this limitation. The principle of this idea is t…
Several probabilistic models from high-dimensional statistics and machine learning reveal an intriguing --and yet poorly understood-- dichotomy. Either simple local algorithms succeed in estimating the object of interest, or even sophisticated semi-definite programming (SDP) relaxations fail. In order to explore this p…
We derive a system of stochastic differential equations simulating the dynamics of the three agent groups with herding interaction. Proposed approach can be valuable in the modeling of the complex socio-economic systems with similar composition of the agents. We demonstrate how the sophisticated statistical features of…
We study modeling and inference with the Elliptical Gamma Distribution (EGD). We consider maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for EGD scatter matrices, a task for which we develop new fixed-point algorithms. Our algorithms are efficient and converge to global optima despite nonconvexity. Moreover, they turn out to be mu…
Estimates classical potential from stock price data using quantum mechanics.
Vocal disorders have affected several patients all over the world. Due to the inherent difficulty of diagnosing vocal disorders without sophisticated equipment and trained personnel, a number of patients remain undiagnosed. To alleviate the monetary cost of diagnosis, there has been a recent growth in the use of data a…
Study shows accuracy of neural networks depends more on error location than percentage of error.
In recent years several adversarial attacks and defenses have been proposed. Often seemingly robust models turn out to be non-robust when more sophisticated attacks are used. One way out of this dilemma are provable robustness guarantees. While provably robust models for specific -perturbation models have been dev…
Study the averaging estimator on graphs with labeled nodes.
Understanding the structure of financial markets deals with suitably determining the functional relation between financial variables. In this respect, important variables are the trading activity, defined here as the number of trades , the traded volume , the asset price , the squared volatility , the bid…
Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) is one category of Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms which can improve sampling efficiency by modeling and approximating system dynamics. It has been widely adopted in the research of robotics, autonomous driving, etc. Despite its popularity, there still lacks some sophist…
Multivariate binary distributions can be decomposed into products of univariate conditional distributions. Recently popular approaches have modeled these conditionals through neural networks with sophisticated weight-sharing structures. It is shown that state-of-the-art performance on several standard benchmark dataset…
Cybersecurity attacks are growing both in frequency and sophistication over the years. This increasing sophistication and complexity call for more advancement and continuous innovation in defensive strategies. Traditional methods of intrusion detection and deep packet inspection, while still largely used and recommende…
New methods combine MALA and mGRAD for scalable Bayesian inference in high-dimensional state-space models.
New Spencer complexes for Lie groupoids developed.
From the early days of computing, games have been important testbeds for studying how well machines can do sophisticated decision making. In recent years, machine learning has made dramatic advances with artificial agents reaching superhuman performance in challenge domains like Go, Atari, and some variants of poker. A…
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only …
Conditional modeling x \to y is a central problem in machine learning. A substantial research effort is devoted to such modeling when x is high dimensional. We consider, instead, the case of a high dimensional y, where x is either low dimensional or high dimensional. Our approach is based on selecting a small subset y_…
This paper identifies the salient factors that characterize the inequality income distribution for Romania. Data analysis is rigorously carried out using sophisticated techniques borrowed from classical statistics (Theil). Decomposition of the inequalities measured by the Theil index is also performed. This study relie…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
Study finds more flood risk strategies can improve outcomes in NYC.