Paper derives the maximum entropy characteristics of a rank order distribution for socio-economic applications.
problem Deriving the maximum entropy characteristics of a rank order distribution for socio-economic applications.
method Maximum entropy framework, deriving the discrete generalized beta distribution under a bivariate utility constraint.
result The discrete generalized beta distribution is a natural maximum entropy distribution under an appropriate bivariate utility constraint.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.
Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.
problem Impact of socio-economic challenges and technological progress on economic inequality.
method Perelman model and Ricci flow methods.
result Technological innovations and social protection programs reduce inequality.
ESOP uses Bayesian optimization to find optimal lock-down schedules.
problem Finding optimal lock-down schedules balancing health and economy.
method Bayesian optimization interacting with epidemiological models.
result ESOP schedules balance public health and economic impacts.
Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. Earlier studies have probed individual factors but an integrated pictur…
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and …
In statistical physics, the conservation of particle number results in the equalization of the chemical potential throughout a system at equilibrium. In contrast, the homogeneity of utility in socio-economic models is usually thought to rely on the competition between individuals, leading to Nash equilibrium. We show t…
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini (g) index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata (k) index gives a measure of 1−k fraction of population who possess top k fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…
A technique from stochastic portfolio theory [Fernholz, 1998] is applied to analyse equity returns of Small, Mid and Large cap portfolios in an emerging market through periods of growth and regional crises, up to the onset of the global financial crisis. In particular, we factorize portfolios in the South African marke…
Socio-economic inequality is characterized from data using various indices. The Gini (g) index, giving the overall inequality is the most common one, while the recently introduced Kolkata (k) index gives a measure of 1−k fraction of population who possess top k fraction of wealth in the society. Here, we show t…
What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…
Socio-economic inequalities are manifested in different aspects of our social life. We discuss various aspects, beginning with the evolutionary and historical origins, and discussing the major issues from the social and economic point of view. The subject has attracted scholars from across various disciplines, includin…
Collective behavior of the complex socio-economic systems is heavily influenced by the herding, group, behavior of individuals. The importance of the herding behavior may enable the control of the collective behavior of the individuals. In this contribution we consider a simple agent-based herding model modified to inc…
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
The econophysics approach to socio-economic systems is based on the assumption of their complexity. Such assumption inevitably lead to another assumption, namely that underlying interconnections within socio-economic systems, particularly financial markets, are nonlinear, which is shown to be true even in mainstream ec…
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
In this essay, I attempt to provide supporting evidence as well as some balance for the thesis on `Transforming socio-economics with a new epistemology' presented by Hollingworth and Mueller (2008). First, I review a personal highlight of my own scientific path that illustrates the power of interdisciplinarity as well …
Tax dynamics affects wealth distribution in a linearly growing socio-economic model.
problem Analyzing how tax policies impact wealth distribution in a stochastic resetting system.
method Analytical and numerical study of a system of agents with linear wealth growth, stochastic resetting, and tax redistribution.
result Optimal taxation leads to economic equality, while excessive taxation results in reverse disparity.
In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…
A brief overview of the models and data analyses of income, wealth, consumption distributions by the physicists, are presented here. It has been found empirically that the distributions of income and wealth possess fairly robust features, like the bulk of both the income and wealth distributions seem to reasonably fit …
New approach predicts crime and terrorism events with high accuracy and transparency.
problem Predicting crime and terrorism events with high accuracy and interpretability.
method Granger Network inference for local transport rules learning.
result Achieved AUC of ~90% for crime predictions and ~80% for terrorism predictions.
New measures and tests for high-order interactions in complex data.
problem Challenges in capturing high-order interactions in multivariate data.
method Hierarchy of d-order interaction measures and kernel-based tests. result Established statistical significance of high-order interactions.
Research quantifies financial exclusion risks in UK, focusing on cash infrastructure and socio-economic factors.
problem Localised financial exclusion in the UK as cash infrastructure declines.
method Developed a composite indicator using various input variables.
result Financial exclusion is more prevalent in deprived communities and affluent areas.
Most real-world networks exhibit community structure, a phenomenon characterized by existence of node clusters whose intra-edge connectivity is stronger than edge connectivities between nodes belonging to different clusters. In addition to facilitating a better understanding of network behavior, community detection fin…
Improves CRRR for better mobility analysis with DCTM.
problem Unclear interpretation of RRRX parameters.
method Uses DCTM for conditional ranks, cross-fitting, and asymptotic theory.
result Clearer interpretation and improved accuracy in mobility analysis.
Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.
problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models…
Maps of infectious disease---charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity, and the burden on human health---provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly…
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…
In this paper we introduce a simple model for a financial market characterized by a single stock or good and an interplay between two different traders populations, chartists and fundamentalists, which determine the price dynamic of the stock. The model has been inspired by the microscopic Lux-Marchesi model (T.Lux, M.…
Patterns of mobile phone communications, coupled with the information of the social network graph and financial behavior, allow us to make inferences of users' socio-economic attributes such as their income level. We present here several methods to extract features from mobile phone usage (calls and messages), and comp…
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
problem Improving treatment allocation in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Maximizes a functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution.
result Developed expected regret lower bounds and near minimax optimal policy.
We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a singl…
We derive a system of stochastic differential equations simulating the dynamics of the three agent groups with herding interaction. Proposed approach can be valuable in the modeling of the complex socio-economic systems with similar composition of the agents. We demonstrate how the sophisticated statistical features of…
Deciding effective and timely preventive measures against complex social problems affecting relatively low income geographies is a difficult challenge. There is a strong need to adopt intelligent automation based solutions with low cost imprints to tackle these problems at larger scales. Starting with the hypothesis th…
Classic economic science is reaching the limits of its explanatory powers. Complexity science uses an increasingly larger set of different methods to analyze physical, biological, cultural, social, and economic factors, providing a broader understanding of the socio-economic dynamics involved in the development of nati…
Our society has been computerised and globalised due to emergence and spread of information and communication technology (ICT). This enables us to investigate our own socio-economic systems based on large amounts of data on human activities. In this article, methods of treating complexity arising from a vast amount of …
In this paper we explore the specific role of randomness in financial markets, inspired by the beneficial role of noise in many physical systems and in previous applications to complex socio- economic systems. After a short introduction, we study the performance of some of the most used trading strategies in predicting…
Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.
problem Accurate mid-term hourly load forecasting for power plant operation and energy management.
method Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with P-splines and autoregressive post-processing.
result Significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.
We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility. Utility is affected by i…
Novel approach models life events using causal discovery and survival analysis.
problem Modeling life event choices and occurrence from a probabilistic perspective.
method Bi-level problem formulation: causal discovery for life events graph, survival analysis for time-to-event modeling.
result Identification of causal relationships and factors influencing transition rates between life events.
In 2016, the majority of full-time employed women in the U.S. earned significantly less than comparable men. The extent to which women were affected by gender inequality in earnings, however, depended greatly on socio-economic characteristics, such as marital status or educational attainment. In this paper, we analyzed…
The paper forecasts joint electricity demand across 14 British regions using additive models.
problem Forecasting regional electricity demand with cross-regional dependencies.
method Modified Cholesky parametrisation for multivariate Gaussian model, gradient boosting for model selection.
result The proposed model outperforms non-Gaussian copula-based models in forecasting.
We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …
Quantifying the importance and power of individual nodes depending on their position in socio-economic networks constitutes a problem across a variety of applications. Examples include the reach of individuals in (online) social networks, the importance of individual banks or loans in financial networks, the relevance …
Among American women, the rate of breast cancer is only second to lung cancer. An estimated 12.4% women will develop breast cancer over the course of their lifetime. The widespread use of social media across the socio-economic spectrum offers unparalleled ways to facilitate information sharing, in particular as it pert…
I propose a frequency domain adaptation of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to group a family of time series in classes of similar dynamic structure. It does this by viewing the magnitude of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) of each signal (or power spectrum) as a probability density/mass function (pdf/pm…
Detecting and mapping informal settlements encompasses several of the United Nations sustainable development goals. This is because informal settlements are home to the most socially and economically vulnerable people on the planet. Thus, understanding where these settlements are is of paramount importance to both gove…