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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3673109145 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for social indicators

Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using deep learning with trading and social media indicators.

problem Predicting price movements of cryptocurrencies using deep learning.
method Used deep learning algorithms (MLP, CNN, LSTM, ALSTM) on hourly and daily data of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
result Unrestricted model with trading and social media indicators outperforms restricted model.

The study visualizes Spanish fish and meat processing companies using financial, environmental, and social ratios.

problem Mapping financial, environmental, and social performance of Spanish processing companies.
method Used compositional data and principal-component analysis biplot for statistical analysis.
result Identified clusters of companies with similar financial, environmental, and social performance.

Model predicts increased social unrest during COVID-19 using social media data.

problem Detecting rising conflict potential in societies during pandemics.
method Neural implicit motive pattern recognition from social media texts.
result Significant increase in conflict indicators during the pandemic.

Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural networ…

2017-10-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a networked version of the minority game in which agents can choose to follow the choices made by a neighbouring agent in a social network. We show that for a wide variety of networks a leadership structure always emerges, with most agents following the choice made by a few agents. We find a suitable parameter…

2011-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

We prove that the refined approach -- our extension of the Yakovenko et al. formalism -- is universal in the sense that it describes well both household incomes in the European Union and the individual incomes in the United States for social classes of any income. This formalism allowed the study of the impact of the r…

2014-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper identifies and analyzes biases in risk-adjusted index weighting methods, affecting social welfare and market fairness.

problem Biases in risk-adjusted index weighting methods lead to tracking errors and fraud in indices and ETFs.
method Characterizes and analyzes the biases and adverse effects of risk-adjusted index weighting methods.
result These biases reduce social welfare and can enable harmful arbitrage activities.

In the work, a comparative correlation and fractal analysis of time series of Bitcoin crypto currency rate and community activities in social networks associated with Bitcoin was conducted. A significant correlation between the Bitcoin rate and the community activities was detected. Time series fractal analysis indicat…

2019-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

With the rise of social media, people can now form relationships and communities easily regardless of location, race, ethnicity, or gender. However, the power of social media simultaneously enables harmful online behavior such as harassment and bullying. Cyberbullying is a serious social problem, making it an important…

2016-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently many studies stressing the psychological and social dimension of financial beha…

2013-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini (gg) index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata (kk) index gives a measure of 1k1-k fraction of population who possess top kk fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…

2016-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Study shows investor sentiment boosts intraday trading in Chinese markets.

problem Impact of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading in Chinese A-share markets.
method High-frequency sentiment indices from social media analyzed for intraday overtrading in CSI 300 and CSI 500 constituents.
result Investor sentiment significantly increases intraday overtrading, especially among institutional investors.

Companies and financial investors are paying increasing attention to social consciousness in developing their corporate strategies and making investment decisions to support a sustainable economy for the future. Public discussion on incidents and events -- controversies -- of companies can provide valuable insights on …

2019-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.

problem Predicting stock market movement in uncertain economic conditions.
method Used LSTM and QLSTM models on monthly data of economic indicators.
result QLSTM provided more accurate predictions of KSE 100 index values.

Develops platforms to analyze social media data for human behavior and emotions.

problem Understanding human behavior and emotions from social media data.
method Self-structuring incremental machine learning, event detection, natural language processing.
result Captured salient topics and events from social media data, validated against news.

Social media analytics allows us to extract, analyze, and establish semantic from user-generated contents in social media platforms. This study utilized a mixed method including a three-step process of data collection, topic modeling, and data annotation for recognizing exercise related patterns. Based on the findings,…

2018-12-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the effect of the social stratification on the wealth distribution on a system of interacting economic agents that are constrained to interact only within their own economic class. The economical mobility of the agents is related to its success in exchange transactions. Different wealth distributions are obtai…

2005-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study shows frequent 'stock' mentions on Twitter correlate with stock market declines.

problem Understanding how social media impacts financial markets during pandemics.
method Collected over 26 million tweets about COVID-19, analyzed using natural language processing.
result More frequent use of 'stock' in tweets predicts substantial declines in stock market indices.

Study analyzes misinformation on social media during COVID-19.

problem Misinformation spreads on social media during the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting public health adherence.
method Analysis of model-labeled data, random forest classifier, sentiment analysis.
result Misinformation tweets show more negative sentiment and evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated theories.

In accessibility tests for digital preservation, over time we experience drifts of localized and labelled content in statistical models of evolving semantics represented as a vector field. This articulates the need to detect, measure, interpret and model outcomes of knowledge dynamics. To this end we employ a high-perf…

2016-08-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.

problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.

The study uses a multi-armed bandit model to analyze and mitigate hiring discrimination.

problem Hiring discrimination due to insufficient data on worker skill and characteristics.
method Multi-armed bandit model to simulate firms' learning process and policy solutions.
result Temporary affirmative actions effectively alleviate discrimination caused by data insufficiency.

PreBit predicts Bitcoin price movements using social media and financial data.

problem Predicting extreme price movements of Bitcoin due to its volatility and speculative trading.
method Hybrid model combining FinBERT embeddings of Twitter content with candlestick data and technical indicators.
result The hybrid model can predict significant market movements with a profitable trading strategy.

Social media are nowadays one of the main news sources for millions of people around the globe due to their low cost, easy access and rapid dissemination. This however comes at the cost of dubious trustworthiness and significant risk of exposure to 'fake news', intentionally written to mislead the readers. Automaticall…

2019-02-10abs ↗pdf ↗

To understand the structural dynamics of a large-scale social, biological or technological network, it may be useful to discover behavioral roles representing the main connectivity patterns present over time. In this paper, we propose a scalable non-parametric approach to automatically learn the structural dynamics of …

2012-03-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.

problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.

Spatial machine learning improves poverty targeting in Indonesia.

problem Conventional PMT methods have high exclusion and inclusion errors due to spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity.
method Integrates spatial contiguity matrices into SML models to identify and compare poverty clusters.
result SML reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models.

The well-known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll and Ross shows that the long zero-coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long-term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in …

2013-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗