Bayesian learning from variable-length sequences using Gaussian processes with signature covariances.
problem Learning from sequences of varying lengths and complex sequential structures.
method Gaussian processes with signature kernels, sparse variational approach, combining with LSTM/GRU models.
result Effective learning from sequences of different lengths and complex structures.
This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
Paper develops approximation and statistical theory for signature-based path regression.
problem Understanding how fast signatures approximate continuous path functionals.
method Develops \(L^2\) approximation rate for smooth functionals of Itô diffusions and establishes consistency of statistical learning procedures.
result Signature-based methods improve prediction over handcrafted features in various real-data applications.
PSLR classifies functional data with scalar covariates using path signatures.
problem Classical functional logistic regression models have limitations in capturing nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies.
method PSLR uses truncated path signatures to create a basis-free representation of functional data.
result PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy and robustness, especially under non-uniform sampling.
We show that if ∇R is a Jordan Szabo algebraic covariant derivative curvature tensor on a vector space of signature (p,q), where q is odd and p is less than q or if q is congruent to 2 mod 4 and if p is less than q-1, then ∇R=0. This algebraic result yields an elementary proof of the geometrical fact th…
Novel time series forecasting method using sliding window signatures.
problem Challenges in forecasting nonlinear and delayed time series data.
method Ridge regression with signature features calculated on sliding windows.
result Signature features effectively encode temporal and nonlinear dependencies, leading to accurate forecasts.
Proposes spBART for risk prediction using epigenetic signatures and covariates.
problem Complex high-dimensional epigenetic data and low-dimensional covariates for risk prediction.
method Semi-parametric Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (spBART) with cross-validation for variable selection.
result Achieves strong out-of-sample discrimination (AUC = 0.96) in held-out validation set.
Scalable machine learning with path signatures for time series and graphs.
problem Challenges in real-world time series and graph data.
method Combines rough path theory with probabilistic, deep, and kernel methods.
result Scalable models for time series and graph data.
Bayesian time series forecasting improves by dynamically adapting to recent information.
problem Lack of forgetting mechanism in signature kernel for time series forecasting.
method Introducing a novel forgetting mechanism for signature features using Random Fourier Decayed Signature Features (RFDSF) with Gaussian processes (GPs).
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to other GP-based alternatives and state-of-the-art probabilistic time series forecasting algorithms.
A new method detects anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
problem Detect anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
method Proposes SigMahaKNN combining variance norm and path signature.
result SigMahaKNN detects anomalies better than existing methods.
SPECTRE defends against backdoor attacks by amplifying corrupted data's spectral signature.
problem Backdoor attacks that change model behavior with specific triggers.
method Robust covariance estimation to amplify spectral signature of poisoned data.
result Clean model is completely removed from backdoor, even in hard-to-detect cases.
Signatures of universality are detected by comparing individual eigenvalue distributions and level spacings from financial covariance matrices to random matrix predictions. A chopping procedure is devised in order to produce a statistical ensemble of asset-price covariances from a single instance of financial data sets…
Testing whether a probability distribution is compatible with a given Bayesian network is a fundamental task in the field of causal inference, where Bayesian networks model causal relations. Here we consider the class of causal structures where all correlations between observed quantities are solely due to the influenc…
Study high-dimensional covariance matrix estimators for complex portfolios, improving financial metrics.
problem Estimating covariance matrices in high-dimensional portfolios with nested and one-factor structures.
method Combining random matrix theory, free probability, deterministic equivalents, and two-step covariance estimators.
result Two-step estimators improve financial metrics in complex and one-factor covariance models.
We report on some advances made in the problem of singularities in general relativity. First is introduced the singular semi-Riemannian geometry for metrics which can change their signature (in particular be degenerate). The standard operations like covariant contraction, covariant derivative, and constructions like th…
The well known conformal covariance of the Dirac operator acting on spinor fields over a semi Riemannian spin manifold does not extend to powers thereof in general. For odd powers one has to add lower order curvature correction terms in order to obtain conformal covariance. We derive an algorithmic construction in term…
The paper revisits expected signatures in semimartingale models, providing new formulae and simplifying complexity.
problem Computing expected signatures in semimartingale models.
method Revisits and provides new formulae for computing expected signatures in a general semimartingale setting.
result Log-transform of expected signatures simplifies complexity, leading to signature cumulants.
Abstract properties of hypersurface data analyzed in spherical symmetry.
problem Analyzing hypersurface data in spherical symmetry.
method Study of hypersurface data properties, gauge group, and curvature tensor.
result General solution of Einstein field equations in vacuum and Lorentzian ambient signature.
Defines knot signature invariant using G-signature theorem.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on knot theory.
method Uses G-signature theorem to define knot invariant.
result Defines an invariant for strongly invertible knots.
Deep signature/log-signature FBSDE algorithm improves accuracy and training time.
problem Solving FBSDEs with state and path dependent features.
method Incorporates deep signature/log-signature transformation into RNN model.
result Improves accuracy and training time compared to existing methods.
A well-known property of the signature of closed oriented 4n-dimensional manifolds is Novikov additivity, which states that if a manifold is split into two manifolds with boundary along an oriented smooth hypersurface, then the signature of the original manifold equals the sum of the signatures of the resulting manifol…
Maximum Levine-Tristram signature of torus knots follows a reduction formula.
problem Determining the maximum Levine-Tristram signature for torus knots.
method Proved a reduction formula analogous to Gordon-Litherland-Murasugi's classical signature result.
result Maximum Levine-Tristram signature of torus knots satisfies a reduction formula.
New findings on mesh group-planes validate Signature-inverse Theorem under specific conditions.
problem Invalidity of existing inverse theorems for mesh group-planes.
method Classification of three and five point meshes, analysis of joint invariant signatures.
result Valid conditions for the Signature-inverse Theorem in mesh group-planes.
Introduces flat discrete signatures for financial data analysis.
problem Representing financial data for machine learning without continuous transformation.
method Introduced flat discrete signatures and discrete signatures, generalizing flat discrete signatures.
result Flat discrete signatures can represent quadratic variation relevant in finance.
This is a sequel to the paper "The signature package on Witt spaces, I. Index classes" by the same authors. In the first part we investigated, via a parametrix construction, the regularity properties of the signature operator on a stratified Witt pseudomanifold, proving, in particular, that one can define a K-homology …
We define the Analytical signature, the Hodge signature and the de Rham signature for a foliated manifold with boundary with foliation transverse to the boundary. We show that all these signatures coincide and a Hirzebruch formula is valid.
New methods price American options in rough volatility models.
problem Pricing American options under rough volatility.
method Integrating deep-signature and signature-kernel learning into optimal stopping problem solutions.
result Performance comparison in rough Heston and rough Bergomi models.
The paper examines the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data.
problem Consistency of Lasso regression in signature analysis of time series data.
method The paper studies the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data, both theoretically and numerically.
result The Lasso regression is consistent both asymptotically and in finite sample for certain types of time series and processes.
Study signatures of torus links and their cores using Neumann's equivariant signatures and Hirzebruch's formula.
problem Computing signatures of torus links and their cores.
method Use Neumann's equivariant signatures and rewrite Hirzebruch's formula for torus links (without cores) in terms of integral points in a parallelogram.
result Rewritten Hirzebruch's formula for torus links with cores using integral points in a parallelogram.
This paper extends the C*-signature to non-Witt spaces using noncommutative geometric methods.
problem Extending the signature to non-Witt spaces with noncommutative geometric methods.
method Noncommutative geometric methods, combinatorial framework, and comparison with analytical signature.
result Constructing the C*-signature on non-Witt spaces.
Paper generalizes path signature using fractional calculus for improved machine learning.
problem Improving path signature for machine learning applications.
method Introduces two new signatures inspired by fractional calculus and machine learning considerations.
result Significant accuracy improvements in handwritten digit recognition.
We present a novel method for extracting cancer signatures by applying statistical risk models (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2732453) from quantitative finance to cancer genome data. Using 1389 whole genome sequenced samples from 14 cancers, we identify an "overall" mode of somatic mutational noise. We give a prescription …
pySigLib speeds up signature-based computations on CPUs and GPUs.
problem Efficient signature-based computations on large datasets and long sequences.
method Optimised Python library for CPU and GPU, novel differentiation scheme.
result Accurate gradients at a fraction of the runtime of existing libraries.
Efficiently computes sparse signature coefficients using kernels.
problem Lack of efficient methods for sparse signature coefficients.
method Signature kernels and PDE-based methods.
result Sparse groups of signature coefficients can be isolated effectively.
New method calculates signatures of biquotients.
problem Signature calculation for homogeneous spaces.
method Generalization of Hirzebruch's computation to biquotients.
result Signature of biquotients computed for equal rank cases.
Paper introduces branched signature model for efficient computation and data-driven applications.
problem Efficient computation and data-driven modeling of branched rough paths.
method Develops a universal approximation theorem and constructs an extension map to realize branched signatures.
result Explicit construction of branched signatures via an extension map for efficient computation.
Link signature limit depends on linking matrix under specific polynomial condition.
problem Limits of Tristam-Levine signature function under precise polynomial conditions.
method Analysis of Alexander polynomial and linking matrix.
result Limit of Tristam-Levine signature at 1 determined by linking matrix under specific polynomial condition.
Path signatures improve hedging of exotic derivatives in non-Markovian models.
problem Hedging exotic derivatives under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models.
method Investigates path signatures in deep and shallow learning contexts, comparing neural networks and regression approaches.
result Path signatures outperform LSTM in most cases and yield more accurate results in hedging.
Develops a new family of signature-changing models on metric manifolds.
problem Signature changes in metric manifolds.
method One-parameter family of Lorentz-Riemann models, local expressions around change.
result Generalizes existing signature-changing models.
We prove that the signature of an even, symmetric form on a finite rank integral lattice, has signature divisible by 8, provided its associated linking form vanishes in the Witt group of linking forms. Our result generalizes the well know fact that an even, unimodular form has signature divisible by 8. We give applicat…
Paper confirms Kashaev's signature conjecture for links.
problem Proving Kashaev's conjecture about link invariants.
method Using Seifert surface definition and diagrammatic approach.
result Established Kashaev's conjecture, providing a new formula for Alexander polynomial.
A new method uses signatures to classify shapes efficiently.
problem Classifying shapes succinctly and invariantly.
method Proposes a method using signatures for shape classification.
result Outperforms current methods like SRV transform and dynamic programming.
The paper defines signatures for Witt spaces with boundary and proves their equality.
problem Defining and proving signatures for Witt spaces with boundary.
method Introducing de Rham and Hodge signatures, extending index theory, and using von Neumann algebras.
result Equality of de Rham and Hodge signatures on Witt spaces with boundary.
In this note, we lay the groundwork for a new approach to the problem of group-signature classification of group actions on closed Riemann surfaces. This new approach first focuses on analyzing the low level arithmetic conditions on signatures before invoking the more complicated group theory. We provide the complete f…
A new graph signature invariant to graph automorphisms.
problem Graph symmetry and feature generation.
method Power spectrum signature derived from squared graph Fourier transform.
result Power spectrum signature is stable under graph perturbations.
Study finds infinitely many surface bundle types with zero signature.
problem Characterizing homeomorphism types of surface bundles with specific signatures.
method Analyzing atoroidal surface bundles over surfaces.
result Infinitely many homeomorphism types of atoroidal surface bundles over surfaces with signature zero.
The study explains why signature methods work in commodity futures term structure classification.
problem Lack of interpretability in signature methods for term structure classification.
method Introducing signature perturbations to explain the success of signature-based classification.
result The volatility of the convenience yield is the major discriminant for commodity markets classification.
Study on signatures of positive braids with bounds derived.
problem Understanding signatures of positive braids and their invariants.
method Derived lower bounds for Levine-Tristram signatures, and upper and lower bounds on signature ratios.
result Established bounds on signatures of positive braids, uniformly valid across monoids.