Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
problem Encouraging green technology innovation in Chinese companies.
method Quasi-experimental research using panel data of Chinese listed companies, double difference model.
result Margin trading and short selling increase green tech innovation significantly.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.
problem Predicting travel times between urban points over short and long horizons.
method Tree-based ensemble methods trained on taxi trip records with additional features from weather and routing data.
result Adding routing data improves model performance and short-term predictions require less data.
New method recovers causal networks from short time-series data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from short time-series data in complex systems.
method Large-scale Nonlinear Granger Causality (lsNGC) approach.
result Captures meaningful interactions from limited observational data.
Deep learning models improve stock portfolio performance.
problem Improving stock portfolio allocation strategies.
method Used MLP, CNN, LSTM, and Transformer models to predict stock returns.
result Deep learning models enhance long-short stock portfolio performance.
We investigated distributions of short term price trends for high frequency stock market data. A number of trends as a function of their lengths was measured. We found that such a distribution does not fit to results following from an uncorrelated stochastic process. We proposed a simple model with a memory that gives …
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
problem Predicting stock market movement in uncertain economic conditions.
method Used LSTM and QLSTM models on monthly data of economic indicators.
result QLSTM provided more accurate predictions of KSE 100 index values.
Paper introduces new indicators for forecasting crude oil prices using short news headlines.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices from short, noisy news headlines using LDA.
method Developed two novel indicators for topic and sentiment from short text data, and applied AdaBoost.RT.
result AdaBoost.RT with the proposed indicators outperforms benchmarks in crude oil forecasting.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.
Meta-learning for Koopman spectral analysis with short time-series data.
problem Lack of long time-series for training embedding functions in Koopman spectral analysis.
method Meta-learning approach using bidirectional LSTM and neural network to estimate embedding functions from short time-series.
result The proposed method achieves better performance in eigenvalue estimation and future prediction compared to existing methods.
Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.
problem Comparing neural network performance to traditional models in financial forecasting.
method Used long short-term memory network for JSE Top 40 return data forecasting.
result Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in forecasting.
AOBTM adapts online topic modeling for short app reviews, revealing coherent topics over time.
problem Challenges in inferring latent topics from short, dynamic app reviews over multiple versions.
method Adaptive Online Biterm Topic Model (AOBTM) that addresses sparsity and considers statistical data from previous versions.
result AOBTM finds more coherent topics and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
TimeMixer predicts global financial asset volatility, excelling in short-term forecasts.
problem Predicting volatility in global financial markets is challenging due to complexity and non-linear dynamics.
method Uses TimeMixer, a multiscale-mixing model for forecasting across different scales.
result TimeMixer performs exceptionally well in short-term volatility forecasting but less so in longer-term predictions.
Develops a KL-divergence-based deep learning method for survival analysis with short data.
problem Challenges of training deep learning models with limited survival data.
method Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to integrate external and internal data.
result Proposed model achieves better performance and higher robustness.
This paper uses DRL for long-short portfolio optimization, improving risk-adjusted returns.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization limits diversification by excluding short-selling.
method Developed a DRL framework with a short-selling mechanism for continuous trading.
result DRL model with short-selling achieves superior risk-adjusted returns.
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
New method constructs spacelike data leading to trapped surfaces.
problem Formation of trapped surfaces from spacelike initial data.
method Free data formalism and local existence result.
result Data can be extended to asymptotically flat Cauchy data.
Combining experimental and observational data for long-term causal effects.
problem Estimating causal effects of treatment on long-term outcomes using mixed data types.
method Three approaches for fusing experimental and observational data: equal confounding, shared confounder, and proxy variables.
result Developed estimators for each approach and analyzed their robustness.
EnLSTM network improves log generation from small datasets.
problem Generating well logs from small datasets with high accuracy.
method Combining ENN and C-LSTM networks with perturbation methods.
result 34% reduction in mean-square-error compared to existing models.
Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.
Paper develops adaptive models for robust energy forecasting with missing data.
problem Operational models assume complete data; missing data can degrade forecast accuracy.
method Adaptive robust optimization and adversarial machine learning for missing data.
result Proposed models perform well even with short-term missing data and significantly outperform imputation with longer-term missing data.
We present techniques for effective Gaussian process (GP) modelling of multiple short time series. These problems are common when applying GP models independently to each gene in a gene expression time series data set. Such sets typically contain very few time points. Naive application of common GP modelling techniques…
We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method achieves superior outcomes to the unbiased estimate both on the trained dataset and…
It is suggested to consider long term trends of financial markets as a growth phenomenon. The question that is asked is what conditions are needed for a long term sustainable growth or contraction in a financial market? The paper discuss the role of traditional market players of long only mutual funds versus hedge fund…
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model, whi…
The paper examines the short-time implied volatility of additive processes and finds key parameters.
problem Characterizing the short-time implied volatility of equity markets.
method Examined pure jump exponential additive processes with power-law scaling parameters.
result The implied volatility is consistent with equity market characteristics if and only if β=1 and δ=-1/2.
Novel method for estimating SIRD model parameters and forecasting COVID-19 deaths in Poland.
problem Estimating epidemiological parameters for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Poland.
method Modified SIRD model, GPU architecture for computation.
result Effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method.
POTA improves short text clustering by generating reliable pseudo-labels.
problem Limited discriminative representations in short texts.
method POTA uses instance-level attention and optimal transport for semantic consistency and cluster structure.
result POTA outperforms state-of-the-art methods in short text clustering.
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
problem Arbitrage and bid-ask spread issues in short-dated options.
method Develops ARIES for filtering static arbitrage and SEDEx for density extraction.
result Robust density extraction across various market conditions and volatility smiles construction.
We discuss a simple extension of the Ho and Lee model with generic time-dependent drift in which: 1) we compute bond prices analytically; 2) the yield curve is sensible and the asymptotic yield is positive; and 3) our analytical solution provides a clean and simple way of separating volatility from the drift in the sho…
The paper uses data science to predict stock trends of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft.
problem Short-term market movement prediction for major tech stocks.
method Combination of technical analysis and machine/deep learning for trend classification.
result Generated labels for data set: +1 (buy), 0 (hold), -1 (sell).
A graph model improves short text classification by integrating sentence relationships.
problem Sparse features in short text classification due to limited text length.
method PathWalk model combining graph networks and short sentences.
result PathWalk achieves state-of-the-art results on four datasets.
Study compares short vs long strategies for equity factors, finds short strategy better.
problem Determining the best market-neutral implementation of equity factors.
method Revisited the relative predictability of short and long legs, diversification, and costs.
result Long-Short implementation yields superior risk-adjusted returns compared to Hedged Long-Only.
Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding.
method Combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes to create an instrumental variable for estimating long-term causal effects.
result The estimator is unbiased and its variance is analytically studied.
Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient an…
The paper examines short-term volatilities in equity indexes using a ranking procedure.
problem Understanding short-term behaviors of implied volatility in equity markets.
method Using a ranking procedure to model equity index dynamics, the paper investigates the short-term volatilities of derivatives written on indexes.
result The models reconcile the long memory of volatilities and power law of ATM skews in equity markets.
We study the short-time existence and regularity of solutions to a boundary value problem for the Ricci-DeTurck equation on a manifold with boundary. Using this, we prove the short-time existence and uniqueness of the Ricci flow prescribing the mean curvature and conformal class of the boundary, with arbitrary initial …
New algorithm extracts device profiles for short-term power predictions in commercial buildings.
problem Short-term power prediction in commercial buildings with high accuracy.
method Unsupervised extraction of device profiles from aggregate power measurements, disaggregation using particle swarm optimization, and state changes forecast by artificial neural networks.
result Developed approach outperforms existing methods with high accuracy.
This study improves mid-cap equity performance with a data-driven, market-neutral approach.
problem Lack of effective strategies for mid-cap stocks.
method Customized long-short equity approach using financial indicators.
result Significant Sharpe ratio of 2.132 in test data.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements from trade data.
problem Predicting short-term price changes in cryptocurrencies.
method Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM) trained on trade-by-trade data.
result Optimal LSTM model achieves over 60% accuracy on out-of-sample test periods.
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting tec…
MD-GAN learns long-time molecular behavior from short-time data with multi-particle input.
problem Accurately predicting long-time molecular dynamics from short-time data.
method Machine learning method (MD-GAN) that incorporates dynamics of multiple particles of molecules.
result Predicting diffusion with one-third of the training data length using multi-particle input.
Short selling is key to exploiting arbitrage opportunities in financial markets.
problem Theoretical basis for differences in financial service regulations.
method Analyzing semimartingales to show arbitrage opportunities require short selling.
result Arbitrage opportunities can only be exploited through short selling.
Approximates bond option volatilities using affine short-rate models.
problem Calculating implied volatilities for bond options.
method Derive asymptotic approximation for bond option volatilities under affine short-rate dynamics.
result Accuracy of approximation validated through numerical experiments.
Method calibrates local volatility and stochastic short rate models for equity-rate dynamics.
problem Joint calibration of local volatility and stochastic short rate models.
method Iterative approach using semimartingale optimal transport.
result Demonstrated performance on market data using European SPX options and cap interest rate options.