The study reveals asymmetries in US financial shocks' international impacts.
problem Analyzing nonlinearities in international financial spillovers.
method Developed a flexible nonlinear multi-country model to capture asymmetries in responses to financial shocks.
result Adverse shocks trigger stronger declines in output, inflation, and stock markets than benign shocks.
In this paper we study the distributional properties of a vector of lifetimes in which each lifetime is modeled as the first arrival time between an idiosyncratic shock and a common systemic shock. Despite unlike the classical multidimensional Marshall-Olkin model here only a unique common shock affecting all the lifet…
Paper addresses unbalanced data in common shock models for loss reserving.
problem Complications in capturing structural dependence with unbalanced data.
method Introduces a common shock Tweedie approach for unbalanced data.
result Better balance of common shock proportions and parsimonious solution.
The paper analyzes stress shocks and their impact on historical data.
problem Determining the appropriate size of stress shocks for historical data analysis.
method Investigates the number of standard deviations required to exceed any historical observation, considering kurtosis.
result Provides tighter bounds for stress shocks than existing inequalities.
Study on stochastic volatility models with external shocks triggering jump cascades.
problem Analyzing the impact of external shocks on jump dynamics in stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing scaling limits for a class of stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics.
result External shocks can trigger endogenous jump cascades in asset returns and volatility.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of financial markets for the 1987 Black Monday, the Russian crisis of 1998, the crash …
New method quantifies market shocks and their effects.
problem Quantifying the impact and response to market shocks.
method Sparse probabilistic elliptical model with L0-norm regularization. result Shock patterns are related to network structure and sector diversification.
Study shows local governments smooth fiscal shocks from property tax revenues.
problem Impact of revenue shocks on local fiscal policy.
method Causal machine learning strategies and post-double-selection LASSO estimator.
result Local policymakers predominantly smooth fiscal shocks, but react differently to positive and negative shocks.
Study historical cholera epidemics and simulate long-term mortality impacts.
problem Long-term impacts of mortality shocks on longevity.
method Historical analysis of cholera epidemics and mathematical modeling of stochastic Individual-Based models.
result Simulated long-term mortality impacts following a mortality shock.
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European count…
Modeling financial contagion through bank networks, revealing solvency correlations.
problem Understanding how financial shocks propagate through interconnected banks.
method Simulated financial network of 100 banks, randomly generated with varying link probabilities, and shocks applied to 15 banks.
result Ranges of probability values and banks' solvency are positively correlated.
Universal model for soft tissue mechanics under shock waves.
problem Modeling shock wave mechanics in soft biological tissues.
method Continuum mixture theory with phase-field mechanics.
result Universal thermodynamically consistent formulation for soft porous tissues.
Realized GARCH model explains VIX and VRP dynamics.
problem Understanding VIX and VRP dynamics in financial markets.
method Developed Realized GARCH model with two shocks.
result Realized GARCH model outperforms conventional GARCH models.
We investigate shock-wave solutions of the Einstein equations in the case when the speed of propagation is equal to the speed of light. The work extends the shock matching theory of Smoller and Temple, which characterizes solutions of the Einstein equations when the spacetime metric is only Lipschitz continuous across …
Paper introduces new copulas from shock models, improving on maxmin copulas.
problem Improving on maxmin copulas for better characteristics.
method Developed RMM copulas with dependent endogenous shocks and proved convergence of iteration procedures.
result RMM copulas exhibit better characteristics than maxmin copulas, including convergence properties.
The study uses Random Matrix Theory to identify structural changes in stock markets during shocks.
problem Understanding structural changes in stock markets during exogenous shocks.
method Random Matrix Theory and complexity gap analysis.
result The complexity gap collapses during shocks, indicating strong synchronization, and widens before shocks, signaling a rich structure.
We provide an explicit aggregation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and uninsurable employment risk. We show there are two restrictions on the unemployment shock for approximate aggregation to occur. First the probability of unemployment must be positive for each agent in each time period. That en…
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial secto…
This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw & Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow…
New method disentangles shock diffusion on complex networks using graph planarity.
problem Difficult to identify shock sources and destinations in complex network dynamics.
method Combines vector autoregression with graph planarity to uniquely characterize shock propagation.
result Planarity of network allows statistical estimation of shock propagation paths.
New copulas model external shocks with different effects on system components.
problem Modeling external shocks with different impacts on system components.
method Introduced reflected maxmin (RMM) copulas to extend maxmin copulas.
result Symmetric RMM copulas relate to general RMM copulas similarly to semilinear copulas to Marshall copulas.
We empirically test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. The data used are quarterly U.S. observati ons over the period 1967:1 to 2011:4. In doing so, we use both …
Model quantifies how global economic shocks propagate through interconnected trade and investment networks.
problem Understanding and predicting the global propagation of economic crises.
method Coupled epidemic and internal contagion dynamics on a multiplex network of trade and investment interactions.
result Linear relation between a country's shock magnitude and its global impact, influenced by internal contagion and intercountry propagation.
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of d obligors, a set of d idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all them. All shocks are assumed to be linked by a dependence relationship, that in …
Proposes a robust portfolio method for large asset universes.
problem Outliers in return data affect traditional portfolio optimizations.
method Robust PCA, shrinkage estimation, and adaptive portfolio weights.
result Superior portfolio performance in numerical and empirical tests.
Study optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under common shocks affecting financial and actuarial markets.
problem Maximizing expected exponential utility of terminal wealth in a company facing both ordinary and catastrophic claims.
method Modeling common shocks affecting financial and actuarial markets, using stochastic control and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations.
result Characterization of optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under common shock dependence.
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
Trade networks for maize, rice, soy, and wheat are more vulnerable to shocks.
problem Increased complexity in international crop trade networks makes them more susceptible to cascades of demand failures.
method Analyzed FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years to construct higher-order trade dependency networks.
result Trade networks are more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
The paper analyzes optimal timing for converting wealth into annuities in the presence of a mortality shock.
problem Optimal timing for converting retirement wealth into annuities under a mortality risk.
method Derives explicit closed-form solutions for value function and optimal stopping boundaries.
result The optimal strategy depends on the interplay between annuity attractiveness, investment returns, and bequest motives.
Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks affect sovereign risk differently, with distinct transmission channels.
problem Understanding how geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks impact sovereign credit risk.
method Daily panel data of 42 economies over 2018-2025; semistructural framework; Shapley-Taylor decomposition; machine learning predictions; placebo and sign-restricted SVAR evidence.
result Geopolitical shocks primarily increase sovereign credit spreads through direct repricing, while geoeconomic shocks mainly affect spreads through financial conditions and policy uncertainty.
New approach measures systemic risk by absorbing shocks before financial systems deteriorate.
problem Systemic risk evaluation without considering initial shocks.
method Linearized DebtRank and spectral graph theory for localized and uniform shocks; Monte Carlo simulations for heterogeneous shocks.
result Explicit computation and clear visualization of financial distress onset.
Modeling financial crises and cryptocurrency shocks using copulae clustering.
problem Detecting financial crises and shock events in stock and cryptocurrency markets.
method Copulae clustering based on probability distribution distances.
result Successfully detected all past crises and shock events in stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Paper introduces a synthetic ALM model for life insurance, evaluating SCR with interest rate shocks.
problem Evaluating Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) in life insurance with interest rate shocks.
method Developed a synthetic ALM model that considers market and book values, crediting rates, and bond investments. Evaluated SCR using the standard formula.
result The choice of interest rate model is crucial for meaningful SCR evaluation after regulatory shocks.
New method identifies uncertainty shocks in financial markets using revised VIX.
problem Traditional VIX fails to capture non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed asset returns.
method Fit a double-subordinated Normal Inverse Gaussian Levy process to S&P 500 option prices to construct a revised VIX.
result Revised VIX provides a more comprehensive measure of volatility reflecting extreme movements and heavy tails.
New framework detects time-varying economic persistence.
problem Time-varying persistence in economic shocks.
method Localized regression techniques to identify evolving heterogeneity.
result Substantial persistence variations align with macroeconomic events.
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a …
Predicts individual septic shock children's vasoactive response using RNN.
problem Personalized physiologic responses to vasoactive titrations in septic shock children.
method Retrospective analysis of EMR data using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN).
result RNN model predicted physiologic responses more accurately than a linear model.
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers of systemic events, and it removes the arbitrariness in the selection of shock sc…
In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales observed in the market. We derive a mean-field limit using a weak convergence analysis …
Study recovers investor preferences from portfolio data using synthetic data and robust optimization.
problem Recovering latent investor preferences from observed portfolio allocations under uncertainty.
method Inverse portfolio optimization framework integrating robust optimization and regret-based inference.
result Accurate recovery of transaction cost parameters and partial identifiability of ESG penalties under preference misspecification and market shocks.
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.
We establish a simple relation between curvatures of the group of volume-preserving diffeomorphisms and the lifespan of potential solutions to the inviscid Burgers equation before the appearance of shocks. We show that shock formation corresponds to a focal point of the group of volume-preserving diffeomorphisms regard…
Proposes a new model for simulating electricity prices and their correlation structure.
problem Simulating and understanding the complex dynamics of intraday electricity prices.
method Develops a multidimensional statistical model based on Poisson measures, estimating three key parameters.
result Demonstrates the model's effectiveness in battery valuation through dynamic programming.
External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size o…