Paper formalizes a reinforcement learning model for complex information structures.
problem Complex interdependence in sequential decision-making problems.
method Formalizes a novel reinforcement learning model with explicit information structure representation.
result Upper bound on sample complexity of learning general sequential decision-making problems.
Symmetric CNNs improve sequential recommendation and protein structure prediction.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in sequential recommendation and protein structure inference.
method Developed a CNN architecture that preserves symmetry in convolutional layers, using parameterized convolutional kernels.
result Symmetric structured CNNs achieve better performance with fewer parameters.
We identify and analyze selection structure in sequential data.
problem Selection biases in sequential data can distort analysis and hide underlying generation processes.
method Nonparametric identifiability of selection structure without interventional experiments.
result Selection structure is identifiable in sequential data without parametric assumptions.
Study on Ricci-Bourguignon solitons on specific product spaces.
problem Characterizing Ricci-Bourguignon solitons on sequential warped products.
method Obtained necessary conditions for solitons to be Einstein manifolds under specific potential fields.
result Conditions for Ricci-Bourguignon solitons to be Einstein are identified.
Optimized parallel algorithms for identifying strong ties in data.
problem Identifying strong ties in data with varying distances and community sizes.
method Design and analysis of sequential and parallel algorithms for partitioned local depths.
result Optimized algorithms achieve up to 19.4x speedup in parallel execution.
This paper discovers classification models from sequential data without prior knowledge.
problem Lack of prior knowledge in defining kernels for online classification.
method Adapts GP-based time-series structure discovery with SMC to learn new features from sequential data.
result Improves classification accuracy by 10% on real-world data.
Investigates sequential problems on graph structures and large action spaces.
problem Sequential decision-making on graph structures and large action spaces.
method Spectral bandits, side observations, influence maximization, kernel bandits, polymatroid bandits, function optimization, infinitely many-arms bandits.
result Contributions to graph and structured bandits.
Optimal sequential testing for Markovian data with lower and upper bounds.
problem Sequential hypothesis testing for Markovian data.
method Non-asymptotic lower bounds and optimal test design.
result Optimal test matches lower bound asymptotically.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful and effective for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are usually considered "black box" models whose internal structure and learned parameters are not interpretable. In this paper, we propose an interpretable RNN based on the sequential iterative soft-thresholding al…
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.
problem Testing sequential data for two-sample and independence without kernel selection issues.
method Prediction-based betting strategies that adaptively determine distribution and joint distribution.
result Prediction-based tests outperform kernel-based approaches in high-dimensional or structured data settings.
New model mimics neural next item recommendation using Hankel matrices.
problem Next item recommendation efficiency and structural knowledge capture.
method Tensor factorization with Hankel matrix representation.
result Model performs competitively with neural networks but is simpler.
A new model for sequential memory using temporal predictive coding.
problem Forming accurate memory of sequential stimuli in the brain.
method Proposes a novel PC-based model called temporal predictive coding (tPC).
result Shows that tPC models can accurately memorize and retrieve sequential inputs.
New method discovers accurate time series models using SMC and MCMC.
problem Discovering accurate models of complex time series data.
method Bayesian nonparametric prior, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), involutive MCMC.
result 10x--100x runtime speedup over previous methods.
We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies on the efficiency of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for performing inference in st…
Reduces change detection to estimation using confidence sequences.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with minimal delay and false alarms.
method Reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences.
result Change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions and strong guarantees.
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling with limited applicability to large data sets. W…
A long user history inevitably reflects the transitions of personal interests over time. The analyses on the user history require the robust sequential model to anticipate the transitions and the decays of user interests. The user history is often modeled by various RNN structures, but the RNN structures in the recomme…
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
New method controls false discoveries in real-time data streams.
problem Online testing of hypotheses with strict error constraints and no future data.
method Structure-adaptive sequential testing (SAST) with alpha-investment algorithm.
result Substantial power gain over existing online testing rules.
We develop a model to predict effects of sequential interventions, clarifying their combined impact.
problem Uncertainty in generalizing behavioral predictions for combinations of interventions.
method Explicit model for composition of interventions, identifying their combined effect.
result Our compositional model aids prediction in sparse data conditions.
Conventional sequential learning methods such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) focus on interactions between consecutive inputs, i.e. first-order Markovian dependency. However, most of sequential data, as seen with videos, have complex temporal dependencies that imply variable-length semantic flows and their composi…
IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in complex monitoring scenarios.
method Information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm for linear partial monitoring.
result IDS achieves nearly worst-case rate optimality in finite-action games.
Improved SVAE models enhance sequential data prediction.
problem Challenges in implementing and using structured variational autoencoders.
method Modern machine learning tools, hardware acceleration, parallelization, automatic differentiation, exploiting structure in the prior.
result SVAEs outperform general alternatives in accuracy and efficiency.
Randomized SINDy learns dynamic data structures using probabilistic methods.
problem Learning time-dependent data structures in dynamic systems.
method Sequential machine learning with a probabilistic approach, incorporating feature augmentation and Tikhonov regularization.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in regression and binary classification using real-world data.
Unsupervised framework learns symmetry from time sequences.
problem Learning symmetry from time sequences without labeled data.
method Meta-sequential prediction (MSP) framework that leverages stationary properties.
result Hidden disentangled structure emerges as a by-product of training.
Given a sequential learning algorithm and a target model, sequential machine teaching aims to find the shortest training sequence to drive the learning algorithm to the target model. We present the first principled way to find such shortest training sequences. Our key insight is to formulate sequential machine teaching…
Heterogeneous SVO leads to diverse policies in sequential social dilemmas.
problem Understanding how diverse social value orientations affect behavior in sequential social dilemmas.
method Extending prior reinforcement learning studies, we instantiated heterogeneous SVO in a sequential social dilemma setting and measured task-specific diversity metrics.
result Heterogeneous SVO leads to meaningfully diverse policies across various incentive structures.
Conventional sequential learning methods such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) focus on interactions between consecutive inputs, i.e. first-order Markovian dependency. However, most of sequential data, as seen with videos, have complex dependency structures that imply variable-length semantic flows and their composi…
Introduces recency bias to improve time-series forecasting.
problem Lack of recency bias in standard Transformer attention for time-series data.
method Reweights attention scores with a smooth heavy-tailed decay to emphasize nearby observations.
result Recency-biased attention consistently improves sequential modeling and achieves competitive performance on time-series forecasting benchmarks.
We solve a broad class of sequential decision-making problems with partially observed states.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with partially observed states.
method Modeling as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) and separating state and modulation process.
result The approach allows for specialized approximate solution procedures.
Learning probability distributions on the weights of neural networks (NNs) has recently proven beneficial in many applications. Bayesian methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer an elegant framework to reason about NN model uncertainty. However, by assuming independent Gaussian priors for the i…
Dynamic SBI improves SBI efficiency without rounds, reducing simulation and training costs.
problem Efficiently perform complex scientific inference with high-dimensional data.
method Adaptive dataset transformation, parallel simulation and training.
result Significant improvements in simulation and training efficiency.
New method uses hyperbolic space for faster phylogenetic tree inference.
problem Inefficient Euclidean-based phylogenetic inference in high dimensions.
method Developed novel hyperbolic extensions of sequential search algorithms and variational inference methods.
result Improved speed, scalability and performance in phylogenetic inference.
The likelihood for the parameters of a generalized linear mixed model involves an integral which may be of very high dimension. Because of this intractability, many approximations to the likelihood have been proposed, but all can fail when the model is sparse, in that there is only a small amount of information availab…
NARD extends ARD for linear models, promoting sparsity and correlation structure.
problem Sparse relationships between inputs and outputs, capturing correlation structure.
method Matrix normal prior with sparsity-inducing parameter, iterative updates, sequential evaluation, and surrogate function approximation.
result Significant computational efficiency improvements with comparable performance.
MEANTIME improves sequential recommendation by using multi-temporal embeddings and attention mechanisms.
problem Limited use of timestamp information and information bottleneck in sequential recommendation models.
method MEANTIME employs multiple types of temporal embeddings and attention mechanisms to capture diverse patterns from user behavior sequences.
result MEANTIME outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation methods.
Efficiently computes robust option prices using multi-marginal martingale transport.
problem Computing robust option prices under martingale constraints.
method Extending state space, sequential martingale structure, entropic regularisation.
result Fast computation of optimal solutions for large problems.
New algorithms extract low-dimensional representations from sequential data, revealing insights into complex processes.
problem Challenges in extracting low-dimensional representations from sequential, high-dimensional, sparse, and noisy data.
method Developed new clustering algorithms based on Block Markov Chains theory, validated on real-world data.
result These algorithms can successfully extract low-dimensional representations from real-world sequential data, revealing insights into complex processes.
Language models trained on chess board states outperform those on moves, even with causal masking.
problem Applying causal masking to spatial data for training unimodal language models.
method Trained bidirectional and causal self-attention models on both spatial (board-based) and sequential (move-based) chess data.
result Models trained on spatial board states achieve stronger playing strength than those trained on sequential data, even with causal masking.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, w…
This paper solves the normalizability crisis in sequential inference by introducing bounded information geometry.
problem Structural failure in standard sequential inference architectures when dealing with extreme outliers.
method Non-parametric field actions and bounded information geometry to truncate infinite tails of spatial distributions.
result Empirical benchmarks across three domains show robust estimation without infinite-tailed distributional assumptions.
The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
We develop a Bayesian approach to learning from sequential data by using Gaussian processes (GPs) with so-called signature kernels as covariance functions. This allows to make sequences of different length comparable and to rely on strong theoretical results from stochastic analysis. Signatures capture sequential struc…
SLHF uses sequential game theory to optimize preferences from human feedback.
problem Optimizing preferences from human feedback in sequential settings.
method SLHF frames the problem as a sequential-move game between Leader and Follower, decomposing the optimization into refinement and adversarial optimization.
result SLHF achieves strong alignment across diverse preference datasets and scales to large models.
EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.
problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.
Diffusion models mimic human actions in sequential tasks.
problem Cloning human behavior in dynamic environments is challenging.
method Adapting diffusion models to handle stochastic, multimodal, and correlated actions.
result Diffusion models closely replicate human behavior in robotic and gaming tasks.