This study improves audit sampling by using sequential procedures with statistical guarantees.
problem Improving audit efficiency and reliability with statistical methods.
method Formulated as a sequential testing problem, defining null and alternative hypotheses, stopping and decision rules, and exact boundary conditions.
result Exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and simulation-based implementation approximates this design.
New private algorithm for sequential hypothesis testing with privacy and error rate guarantees.
problem Privacy protection in sequential hypothesis testing for sensitive data.
method Renyi differential privacy, Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT).
result Private algorithm with strong privacy guarantees and theoretical performance analysis.
seMCD computes depth functions with statistical guarantees using sequential Monte Carlo.
problem Computing depth functions is computationally challenging, especially in high dimensions.
method Sequential Monte Carlo methodology with theoretical and empirical guarantees.
result The seMCD method provides accurate depth approximations with fewer samples than traditional methods.
A new model for sequential memory using temporal predictive coding.
problem Forming accurate memory of sequential stimuli in the brain.
method Proposes a novel PC-based model called temporal predictive coding (tPC).
result Shows that tPC models can accurately memorize and retrieve sequential inputs.
The study formalizes temporal precision and recall for anomaly detection in sequences.
problem Insufficient understanding of precision and recall in sequential anomaly detection.
method Formalized temporal precision and recall measures, developed time-tolerant confusion matrices, and demonstrated statistical significance.
result Precision and recall may overestimate performance with temporal tolerance.
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
Unified statistical framework for LSTM model selection.
problem Model selection and hyperparameter tuning in LSTM networks is heuristic and computationally expensive.
method Proposes a statistical framework extending classical model selection ideas to LSTM networks.
result Improved performance of the proposed framework demonstrated on biomedical data.
New method finds arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
problem Finding arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
method Formulate as maximizing volatility within a price band, using convex-concave optimization.
result Approximately solves non-convex optimization problem for moving-band arbitrage.
Study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown dependence using group-invariance.
problem Aggregating statistical evidence under unknown and complex dependence structures.
method Develops a framework using group-invariance and permutation-based constructions to aggregate evidence across transformed datasets.
result Shows uniform improvement in critical values for single-batch aggregation over deterministic calibrations, adapting to unknown dependence structures.
M-FISHER detects and adapts to streaming data shifts with statistical validity and stability.
problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in streaming data.
method Constructs an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and applies Ville's inequality for detection. Fisher-preconditioned updates for adaptation.
result Establishes M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation.
A new sequential method estimates Poisson means in streaming data, achieving optimality and efficiency.
problem Estimating Poisson means in a streaming, or online, framework.
method A quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton's algorithm for a sequential estimate.
result Established frequentist guarantees including consistency and asymptotic optimality.
To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly integrate their results while maintaining the desired statistical properties. A…
We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …
Optimal tests developed for sequential experiments with asymptotic properties.
problem Performing hypothesis tests after sequential experiments without prior design.
method Analyze asymptotic properties of sequential experiments; develop tests for Gaussian process observations.
result Asymptotic power function of any test can be matched by a specific test in a limit experiment.
This paper enhances privacy in statistical model checking of cyber-physical systems.
problem Privacy concerns in consumer-level applications due to statistical model checking.
method Proposes expected differential privacy and a new exponential mechanism for sequential algorithms.
result Demonstrates a novel mechanism to preserve privacy in statistical model checking.
For a finite function class we describe the large sample limit of the sequential Rademacher complexity in terms of the viscosity solution of a G-heat equation. In the language of Peng's sublinear expectation theory, the same quantity equals to the expected value of the largest order statistics of a multidimensional $…
We model and correct bias in sequential evaluation, improving ranking accuracy.
problem Sequential evaluation bias in online, irrevocable scoring.
method Modeling the rating process, posing as statistical inference, proposing an online algorithm.
result Near-linear time, online algorithm with guarantees in ranking metrics, information theoretically optimal.
aLTT selects hyperparameters efficiently with statistical guarantees.
problem Statistical validity and efficiency in hyperparameter selection.
method Sequential data-dependent multiple hypothesis testing with early termination.
result Reduces testing rounds while maintaining statistical validity.
Motivated by real-world machine learning applications, we consider a statistical classification task in a sequential setting where test samples arrive sequentially. In addition, the generating distributions are unknown and only a set of empirically sampled sequences are available to a decision maker. The decision maker…
Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.
problem Trading price spreads with mean-reverting characteristics.
method Sequential optimal stopping framework with refined signature method.
result Precise entry and exit timings that maximize gains.
A new method for estimating large-scale linear models with improved precision.
problem Estimating large-scale linear statistical models efficiently.
method Sequential Least-Squares Estimators with Fast Randomized Sketching (SLSE-FRS), integrating Sketch-and-Solve and Iterative-Sketching methods.
result SLSE-FRS produces high-precision estimators, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
The paper introduces gapped scale-sensitive dimensions to improve learning rate bounds.
problem Improving lower bounds on rates of convergence in statistical and online learning.
method Introducing and analyzing gapped scale-sensitive dimensions for function classes.
result Gapped dimensions lead to stronger lower bounds on offset Rademacher averages.
E-valuator converts verifier scores into reliable decision rules.
problem Ensuring the correctness of agent trajectories based on heuristic scores.
method Sequential hypothesis testing framework for online monitoring of agent trajectories.
result E-valuator provides better false alarm rate control and statistical power than other strategies.
New methods optimize experiment selection for sequential data, improving model accuracy.
problem Optimizing experiment selection for sequential data in multidimensional cases.
method Adopting greedy experiment selection methods for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proposed methods produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
Detects data drift in deep learning models using neural embeddings.
problem Detecting changes in data distribution in deep learning models.
method Formulates drift detection in a sequential decision framework and introduces a loss function to balance false alarms and quick detection.
result Demonstrates improved ability to balance false alarms and quick detection in change detection.
New method improves reliability of object detection models.
problem Lack of reliability in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
method Sequential Conformal Risk Control (SeqCRC) for object detection.
result Valid statistical guarantees for any dataset size without prior knowledge.
Subsurface applications including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas, etc., typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Characterizing the subsurface is extremely complex due to heterogeneity and anisotropy. Due to this complexity, there are uncertainties…
Transforms any test into anytime-valid with sample savings.
problem Sequential data invalidates classical test guarantees.
method Predicts test outcomes to create anytime-valid stopping rules.
result Ensures Type-I error control and near-optimal power.
The paper proposes a method to test features selected by SeqFS-DA with controlled FPR.
problem Ensuring reliability of feature selection after domain adaptation in high-dimensional regression.
method Proposes a novel method to test features selected by SeqFS-DA with controlled FPR.
result The proposed method controls FPR below a significance level α (e.g., 0.05) and enhances statistical power. ALMAB-DC optimizes expensive black-box experiments using active learning and distributed computing.
problem Efficiently optimizing expensive, gradient-free objectives in computational statistics and machine learning.
method Combines active learning, multi-armed bandits, and distributed asynchronous computing.
result Achieves lower simple regret and superior performance in various tasks compared to non-ALMAB baselines.
This review examines bandit problems in AI using statistical methods.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty in AI environments.
method Foundational models, concentration inequalities, minimax regret bounds, frequentist and Bayesian algorithms, K-armed contextual bandits, SCAB, functional data analysis.
result Exploration-exploitation trade-offs and regret analyses in various bandit problems.
We extend Bayesian multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms beyond their original setting by making use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. A MAB is a sequential decision making problem where the goal is to learn a policy that maximizes long term payoff, where only the reward of the executed action is observed. In the …
New CUSUM method detects changes in Hawkes networks efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks.
method Efficient online recursive implementation of CUSUM statistic.
result Proposed CUSUM method outperforms existing methods.
We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the 'next-best' data point (set of parameters) that when evaluated results in improv…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful and effective for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are usually considered "black box" models whose internal structure and learned parameters are not interpretable. In this paper, we propose an interpretable RNN based on the sequential iterative soft-thresholding al…
Paper proposes a sequential statistical test for comparing imitation learning policies with near-optimal stopping.
problem Challenges in rigorously comparing imitation learning policies due to small sample sizes and potential p-hacking.
method Sequential statistical test that adapts the number of trials based on intermediate results, achieving near-optimal stopping.
result Reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 32% compared to state-of-the-art baselines, saving significant time and effort.
E-C2ST uses E-values for high-dimensional data two-sample tests.
problem Statistical testing for high-dimensional data.
method Combines split likelihood ratio tests and predictive independence tests, using E-values for anytime-valid sequential tests.
result E-C2ST achieves enhanced statistical power by partitioning datasets into multiple batches.
Extended Ville's inequality for nonintegrable supermartingales.
problem Nonintegrable nonnegative supermartingales.
method Derivation of extended Ville's inequality and extension of the method of mixtures.
result Strengthened classical Ville's inequality for nonintegrable settings.
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
Learning predictive models from small high-dimensional data sets is a key problem in high-dimensional statistics. Expert knowledge elicitation can help, and a strong line of work focuses on directly eliciting informative prior distributions for parameters. This either requires considerable statistical expertise or is l…
A computer code can simulate a system's propagation of variation from random inputs to output measures of quality. Our aim here is to estimate a critical output tail probability or quantile without a large Monte Carlo experiment. Instead, we build a statistical surrogate for the input-output relationship with a modest …
HYPA-DBGNN detects anomalous sequential patterns in temporal graphs.
problem Modeling temporal patterns in dynamic graphs, especially considering deviations from random shuffling.
method Two-step approach combining null model inference and neural message passing.
result HYPA-DBGNN outperforms baseline methods in static node classification tasks.
Study shows how AI model can improve decision-making with missing data.
problem Sequential decision-making with missing covariates.
method Introduced model elasticity to quantify imputation discrepancy; used statistical learning and regression for calibration.
result Calibrating pre-trained models can significantly reduce regret in decision-making.
A new neural network model reduces features in high-dimensional sequential data.
problem Exponential growth in features of truncated signature transform in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a neural network model inspired by Convolutional Neural Networks to address feature growth.
result Reduces the number of features efficiently in a data-dependent way.
Gaussian processes help in modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
problem Modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
method Sequential inference for Gaussian processes.
result Gaussian processes enable efficient and accurate modeling of complex relationships.
This paper tightens the law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
problem Developing nonasymptotic concentration bounds for empirical KL_inf with optimal constants and rates.
method Presenting a tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
result A tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
Study evaluates reinforcement learning algorithms for sequential experimental design.
problem Lack of generalization in reinforcement learning for experimental design.
method Investigated several reinforcement learning algorithms for sequential experimental design.
result Certain algorithms, using dropout or ensemble approaches, show attractive generalization properties.
NAS-X improves inference and model learning for SLVMs.
problem Challenges in analytic inference and model learning for flexible SLVMs.
method NAS-X combines reweighted wake-sleep and smoothing sequential Monte Carlo.
result NAS-X provides low-bias and low-variance gradient estimates.