IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in complex monitoring scenarios.
method Information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm for linear partial monitoring.
result IDS achieves nearly worst-case rate optimality in finite-action games.
New Thompson sampling algorithm for stochastic partial monitoring achieves logarithmic regret.
problem Limited feedback in sequential learning problems.
method Developed a novel Thompson-sampling-based algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution exactly.
result Achieved logarithmic regret bound of O(log T) for a linearized variant of the problem.
Proposes real-time risk monitoring for machine learning systems under unknown shifts.
problem Dynamic distribution shifts challenge real-world machine learning systems' risk assurances.
method Sequential hypothesis testing with 'testing by betting' to detect risk violations.
result Effective real-time risk monitoring under various unknown shifts.
Risk monitoring detects when TTA models degrade at test time.
problem Detecting when TTA models degrade at test time.
method Extended risk monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of TTA monitoring framework across various datasets and methods.
Simple online monitor detects unsafe LLM outputs.
problem LLMs generate unsafe outputs despite training.
method Thresholding external verifier signal to decide alarms.
result Simple design competitive with advanced methods.
IDS optimizes regret in stochastic partial monitoring with linear rewards.
problem Optimizing decision-making in uncertain environments with linear rewards.
method Information Directed Sampling (IDS) for stochastic partial monitoring.
result Achieves optimal regret rates in all observable game regimes.
A new framework detects forecast model inadequacies using online monitoring of forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate forecasts lead to poor decision-making in complex models.
method Sequential changepoint techniques on forecast errors for real-time identification of process changes.
result The framework identifies shifts in forecast errors faster than in the original models, indicating process changes.
Paper proposes a new method to handle missing data in medical records using sequential variational autoencoders.
problem Missing data in medical records due to sensor off-times and uneven data collection.
method Sequential variational autoencoders (VAEs) with a new methodology called Shi-VAE.
result Shi-VAE achieves the best performance in terms of both metrics compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Efficiently audits model fairness with continuous monitoring and flexible data collection.
problem Continuous monitoring and flexible data collection for fairness auditing.
method Sequential, anytime-valid inference and game-theoretic statistics.
result Demonstrated efficacy on three fairness datasets.
The paper proposes a method to detect relevant model degradations without over-alerting.
problem Detecting meaningful changes in machine learning model performance over time.
method Sequential monitoring scheme accounting for temporal dependence and multiple testing issues.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in detecting relevant changes in model quality.
Deep learning speeds up real-time emission monitoring.
problem Real-time greenhouse gas emission monitoring under transient conditions.
method Bayesian inference with deep learning surrogate of CFD outputs.
result Near-real-time predictions with orders-of-magnitude faster runtimes.
Adaptive monitoring for AI systems detects and diagnoses shifts in data distribution.
problem Continuous monitoring of AI systems to detect and address unsafe behavior.
method Weighted-conformal martingales (WCTMs) for online monitoring of AI systems.
result Improved performance over state-of-the-art baselines on real-world datasets.
We develop a monitoring procedure to detect changes in a large approximate factor model. Letting r be the number of common factors, we base our statistics on the fact that the (r+1)-th eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix is bounded under the null of no change, whereas it becomes spiked under cha…
Partial-monitoring games constitute a mathematical framework for sequential decision making problems with imperfect feedback: The learner repeatedly chooses an action, opponent responds with an outcome, and then the learner suffers a loss and receives a feedback signal, both of which are fixed functions of the action a…
We propose a nonparametric sequential test that aims to address two practical problems pertinent to online randomized experiments: (i) how to do a hypothesis test for complex metrics; (ii) how to prevent type 1 error inflation under continuous monitoring. The proposed test does not require knowledge of the underlying…
The paper proposes a method to monitor deep learning predictions for retraining, reducing costs.
problem Reducing computational costs in deep learning by detecting when predictions are no longer valid.
method Sequential monitoring of network predictions based on projected second moments monitoring.
result The proposed method can drastically reduce computational costs in deep learning.
New algorithm minimizes expert selection regret in partial bandit feedback.
problem Minimizing expert selection regret in partial bandit feedback.
method Develops a sequential minimax optimal algorithm for a generalized partial monitoring setting.
result Second order regret bounds against a general expert selection sequence.
A new sequential test for unnormalized densities.
problem Testing unnormalized densities with adaptive stopping.
method Sequential kernelized Stein discrepancy test, using non-uniform Stein kernels.
result Valid test with asymptotic lower bound for growth.
E-valuator converts verifier scores into reliable decision rules.
problem Ensuring the correctness of agent trajectories based on heuristic scores.
method Sequential hypothesis testing framework for online monitoring of agent trajectories.
result E-valuator provides better false alarm rate control and statistical power than other strategies.
Online monitoring system for safety classifiers with shift detection and conformal adaptation
problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in deployed safety classifiers
method Calibrated sequential statistics for online monitoring, conformal abstention for adaptation
result 86.6% valid detection with mean latency of 39.5 steps
Partial monitoring is a general model for sequential learning with limited feedback formalized as a game between two players. In this game, the learner chooses an action and at the same time the opponent chooses an outcome, then the learner suffers a loss and receives a feedback signal. The goal of the learner is to mi…
Unified technique for sequential estimation of convex divergences.
problem Estimating convex divergences between distributions.
method Martingale methods and maximal inequalities for reverse submartingales.
result Valid time-uniform confidence sequences for arbitrary stopping times.
Early stopping methods reduce unnecessary reasoning steps in LLMs by monitoring uncertainty signals.
problem LLMs sometimes generate unnecessary reasoning steps, especially under uncertainty.
method Statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation.
result Uncertainty-aware early stopping improves efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, especially in math reasoning.
Paper proposes a GAN-based method for better next event prediction in business processes.
problem Insufficient training data and sub-optimal network configuration limit deep learning approaches to next event prediction.
method Adversarial training framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for sequential temporal data.
result The proposed approach achieves at least as good accuracy as non-adversarial methods and outperforms them in accuracy and prediction earliness.
When applying principal component analysis (PCA) for dimension reduction, the most varying projections are usually used in order to retain most of the information. For the purpose of anomaly and change detection, however, the least varying projections are often the most important ones. In this article, we present a nov…
DP-SPRT improves privacy in sequential tests with near-optimal error rates.
problem Privacy constraints in sequential probability ratio tests.
method A wrapper for SPRT that uses a private mechanism to determine when to stop based on predefined intervals.
result DP-SPRT achieves near-optimal error rates and privacy guarantees.
Framework for online hypothesis testing across various data types.
problem Testing various nonparametric hypotheses in data streams.
method Unified framework using operators on data distributions, leveraging ML models.
result Efficient, adaptive, and error-controlled sequential tests.
Paper compares two forecasters using novel online inference methods.
problem How to compare forecasters without distributional assumptions.
method Confidence sequences and game-theoretic statistical framework for sequential testing.
result Valid methods for comparing forecasters without distributional assumptions.
Algorithm selects optimal experiments in Markov chains to learn unknown quantities.
problem Designing efficient experiments in Markov chains to learn about unknown quantities.
method Proposes extsc{markov-design} algorithm for sequential policy selection.
result Algorithm provably converges to optimal measurement allocation.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
problem Inference of hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited real data and high uncertainties.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) for posterior distribution approximation.
result The method accelerates hybrid model inference and supports process monitoring and robust control.
Quantum computer method for pricing lookback options with jumps.
problem Pricing lookback options with discrete monitoring and jump conditions.
method Variational Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution (VarQITE) method to solve non-Hermitian Schrodinger equation.
result Quantum algorithm can handle jump conditions in lookback options pricing.
In (Yang et al. 2016), a hierarchical attention network (HAN) is created for document classification. The attention layer can be used to visualize text influential in classifying the document, thereby explaining the model's prediction. We successfully applied HAN to a sequential analysis task in the form of real-time m…
Proposes a real-time anomaly detection system using IRL.
problem Real-time anomaly detection in sequential data.
method Uses inverse reinforcement learning to infer reward function and evaluate anomalies.
result Effective in identifying anomalies in real-world data.
PERCEPT detects changes in high-dimensional data streams using topological data analysis.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data streams, especially when embedded in a low-dimensional space.
method Leverages topological data analysis to learn embedded topology as a point cloud via persistence diagrams, then applies non-parametric monitoring for detecting changes.
result Demonstrates efficient detection of online changes from high-dimensional data streams.
New test detects independence in streaming data, adapting to data complexity.
problem Independence testing in streaming data with adaptive stopping.
method Sequential kernelized independence tests using betting principles.
result Valid inference in streaming data with improved power.
Deep learning improves credit risk assessment without new data.
problem Improving credit risk assessment in banking without new data.
method Sequential deep learning using temporal convolutional networks.
result Sequential deep learning outperformed tree-based models in credit risk assessment.
In the recent years, the desire and need to understand sequential data has been increasing, with particular interest in sequential contexts such as patient monitoring, understanding daily activities, video surveillance, stock market and the like. Along with the constant flow of data, it is critical to classify and segm…
Condition monitoring is one of the routine tasks in all major process industries. The mechanical parts such as a motor, gear, bearings are the major components of a process industry and any fault in them may cause a total shutdown of the whole process, which may result in serious losses. Therefore, it is very crucial t…
New CUSUM method detects changes in Hawkes networks efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks.
method Efficient online recursive implementation of CUSUM statistic.
result Proposed CUSUM method outperforms existing methods.
AI systems that explain their decisions can be monitored for harmful intentions.
problem Monitoring AI systems' decision-making processes for harmful intentions is imperfect and can miss some misbehavior.
method Monitoring the chain of thought (CoT) of AI systems that communicate in human language.
result CoT monitoring is a promising but fragile approach to AI safety.
High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in offline detection and estimation of regime changes in the topology of sparse graph…
A new algorithm detects changes in high-dimensional data efficiently under sampling constraints.
problem Real-time monitoring of high-dimensional streaming data with limited sampling.
method Incorporates multi-armed bandit approaches into sequential change-point detection.
result Proposes TSSRP algorithm for efficient detection of changes.
This paper presents a solution for persistent monitoring of real-world stochastic phenomena, where the underlying covariance structure changes sharply across time, using a small number of mobile robot sensors. We propose an adaptive solution for the problem where stochastic real-world dynamics are modeled as a Gaussian…
We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test the…
Study uses GPLFM to create Digital Twin for ferry quay health monitoring.
problem Deterioration of ferry quays due to harsh maritime environments and impacts.
method Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) integrating physics-based model and machine learning.
result GPLFM provides accurate acceleration response estimates, even under simplifying assumptions.
This research tackles monitoring machine learning algorithms post-deployment, addressing performativity issues.
problem Monitoring machine learning algorithms after deployment, especially when they affect their own data-generating process.
method Uses causal inference techniques to navigate performativity and compares different monitoring criteria and data sources.
result Different monitoring systems have varying operating characteristics and implications for ML monitoring design.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.