Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,786 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

8.4%16.9%25.3%33.7% · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for sequential model-based optimization

OMLE combines optimism and MLE for efficient sequential decision making.

problem Efficiently solving sequential decision making problems, especially in partially observable settings.
method Combines optimism for exploration and maximum likelihood estimation for model learning.
result OMLE learns near-optimal policies for a wide range of sequential decision making problems.

A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.

problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.

New method designs experiments robustly for nonlinear estimation, improving parameter knowledge.

problem Designing robust experiments for nonlinear estimation under parametric uncertainty.
method Multi-stage robust optimization framework for sequential experiments.
result Identifies experiments better conducted early for improved parameter knowledge.

One of the most tedious tasks in the application of machine learning is model selection, i.e. hyperparameter selection. Fortunately, recent progress has been made in the automation of this process, through the use of sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) methods. This can be used to optimize a cross-validation per…

2014-02-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This research improves interpretability in sequential explanations using mental models.

problem Improving interpretability in sequential explanations between two parties.
method A reinforcement learning framework that selects explanations based on the explainee's mental model.
result Mental model-based policies increase interpretability over random selection in multiple sequential explanations.

The paper improves Bayesian optimization by calibrating uncertainty estimates.

problem Improper uncertainty estimates in Bayesian optimization when data is non-stationary.
method Proposes online learning algorithms to maintain calibration on non-i.i.d. data and integrates them into Bayesian optimization.
result Calibrated Bayesian optimization converges to better optima in fewer steps.

Conventional wisdom holds that model-based planning is a powerful approach to sequential decision-making. It is often very challenging in practice, however, because while a model can be used to evaluate a plan, it does not prescribe how to construct a plan. Here we introduce the "Imagination-based Planner", the first m…

2017-07-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimistic RL algorithms are simplified for deep RL with competitive performance.

problem Achieving accurate optimism in model-based RL for large-scale problems.
method Interpreting scalable optimistic model-based algorithms as solving a tractable noise augmented MDP.
result Competitive regret bound of ildeO(SHAT) ilde{\mathcal{O}}( |\mathcal{S}|H\sqrt{|\mathcal{A}| T } ) for Gaussian noise augmentation.

RL agent outperforms model-based approach in detecting price manipulation.

problem Detecting and exploiting price manipulation opportunities.
method Compared model-free RL with model-based approach in a market with Almgren-Chriss framework.
result RL consistently outperforms model-based approach, especially with noisy parameter estimates.

DRL agents learn to trade Intel stock with stable positive returns.

problem Active high frequency trading in the stock market.
method End-to-end DRL framework using Proximal Policy Optimization, Sequential Model Based Optimization, and LOB-based meta-features.
result DRL agents create dynamic trading strategies with stable positive returns.

POLAR optimizes treatment strategies in dynamic settings with statistical guarantees.

problem Optimizing sequential decisions in dynamic treatment regimes with robustness and statistical guarantees.
method Pessimistic model-based approach estimating transition dynamics and incorporating uncertainty penalties.
result Offers statistical and computational guarantees, including finite-sample bounds on policy suboptimality.

Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, w…

2016-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-KeL learns kernels from offline data to improve sequential decision-making.

problem Adaptive confidence sets for prediction functions in sequential decision-making tasks.
method Meta-KeL: meta-learning a kernel from offline data; structured sparsity estimator for unknown kernel combinations.
result Valid confidence sets that become as tight as those given the true unknown kernel with increasing offline data.

MAYA learns bee foraging decisions with limited memory.

problem Reproducing and predicting bees' foraging decisions with limited memory.
method Sequential imitation learning model based on multi-armed bandits, considering a temporal window τ of 7 trials.
result MAYA outperforms imitation baselines and classical models, providing interpretability and realistic trajectories.

Paper develops an efficient approach to reduce HPO time.

problem Challenges in determining optimal hyperparameters due to large number and training time.
method Nested Latin hypercube design for initialization, truncated additive Gaussian process model for calibration, sequential model-based algorithm for optimization.
result Demonstrates competitive performance on various machine learning models.

New RL approach handles non-exponential discounting for sequential decisions.

problem Modeling human discounting in sequential decision-making tasks.
method Generalized model-based reinforcement learning with arbitrary discount functions, using Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and collocation method.
result Validated approach on simulated problems, showing applicability to human discounting.

Hyperparameter tuning is an omnipresent problem in machine learning as it is an integral aspect of obtaining the state-of-the-art performance for any model. Most often, hyperparameters are optimized just by training a model on a grid of possible hyperparameter values and taking the one that performs best on a validatio…

2019-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

When applying machine learning to problems in NLP, there are many choices to make about how to represent input texts. These choices can have a big effect on performance, but they are often uninteresting to researchers or practitioners who simply need a module that performs well. We propose an approach to optimizing ove…

2015-03-02abs ↗pdf ↗

DiPS learns to optimize sketching policies for better recommendation quality.

problem Optimizing sketching policies for long-term user interest prediction in recommender systems.
method Differentiable policy for sketching that learns from training data.
result DiPS requires up to 50% fewer sketch items to achieve the same recommendation quality.

Hybrid Bayesian MOT uses neural networks to improve model aspects, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

problem Improving multiobject tracking performance across various scenarios.
method Hybrid approach combining neural network enhancements with Bayesian estimation and belief propagation.
result State-of-the-art performance in autonomous driving dataset evaluation.

Framework for deferring decisions to experts in sequential medical settings.

problem Myopic and non-adaptive decision-making by ML models in sequential medical contexts.
method Sequential Learning-to-Defer (SLTD) framework using model-based reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive deferral policy improves trade-off between long-term outcomes and deferral frequency.

Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.

problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.

Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

POMBU improves model-based RL's asymptotic performance by estimating and using uncertainty.

problem Model-based reinforcement learning struggles with model errors, leading to suboptimal performance.
method POMBU uses estimated uncertainty to optimize policies conservatively, improving asymptotic performance.
result POMBU outperforms existing methods in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance.

Proposes using frequent sequences to improve sequential recommendation models.

problem Combining user history and recent actions for personalized recommendations.
method Uses frequent sequences to identify relevant parts of user history, embedding items based on preferences and dynamics in a unified metric model.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on sparse datasets.

Study improves financial risk assessment using ARMA-APARCH-EVT models with HACs.

problem Improving risk assessment in financial portfolios.
method ARMA-APARCH-EVT-HAC model for volatility and extreme value forecasting.
result Empirical analysis shows the model's effectiveness in international stock market data.

Predicts node sequences in graphs using multi-order network models.

problem Predicting sequences of node traversals in graphs.
method Combines multiple higher-order network models into a multi-order model, fitting and selecting the optimal maximum order.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element and full sequence prediction.

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is …

2007-08-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm finds a simplified model for reinforcement learning under agent limitations.

problem Finding a simple model that approximates the true model for reinforcement learning.
method Uses rate-distortion theory to compute an approximately-value-equivalent, lossy compression of the environment.
result Proves an information-theoretic, Bayesian regret bound for the algorithm.

The study compares reinforcement learning models and finds model-based approaches superior for complex MDPs.

problem Complexity of optimal Q-functions and policies in MDPs exceeds dynamics, hindering model-free methods.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical testing of neural network expressivity for policies, Q-functions, and dynamics.
result Model-based planning yields better policies for complex MDPs, improving performance on MuJoCo tasks.

New algorithms accelerate model-based optimization for stochastic problems.

problem Optimizing model-based stochastic optimization problems efficiently.
method Proposed new model-based algorithms with acceleration and minibatch techniques.
result Non-asymptotic convergence guarantees with linear speedup in minibatch size.

We propose a new method for learning the structure of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that is more efficient than recent state-of-the-art methods based on reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithms. Our approach uses a sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) strategy, in which we search for structures i…

2017-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A new sampling strategy improves reliability and robustness optimization for complex designs.

problem High sample requirements for optimizing reliability and robustness in complex designs.
method Local Latin Hypercube Refinement (LoLHR) for multi-objective design uncertainty optimization.
result LoLHR achieves better results compared to other surrogate-based strategies.

A framework schedules hyperparameters for model-based reinforcement learning, improving performance.

problem Inadequate scheduling of hyperparameters in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Theoretical analysis and AutoMBPO framework to automatically schedule real data ratio and other hyperparameters.
result Training with hyperparameters scheduled by AutoMBPO significantly improves performance.