A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.
Sequential coordinate ascent is more robust in high-dimensional linear regression.
problem Behavior difference between sequential and parallel coordinate ascent in variational inference.
method Comparison of sequential and parallel coordinate ascent algorithms in high-dimensional linear regression.
result Sequential algorithm converges under more relaxed conditions than parallel algorithm.
A new method for Bayesian inference using diffusion models.
problem Bayesian inference in simulator-based models.
method Score-based diffusion models trained with a sequential training procedure.
result Comparable or superior performance compared to existing methods.
Proposes a new method for continual learning in neural networks.
problem Challenges in applying sequential Bayesian inference to neural networks.
method Sequential function-space variational inference.
result Neural networks trained with the proposed method achieve better predictive accuracy.
Develops methods for inference after detecting a change in sequential data.
problem Inference after a detected change in sequential data.
method General framework for constructing confidence sets using only data up to a stopping time.
result First general method for sequential changepoint localization with theoretical guarantees.
TSNPE improves SBI efficiency and scalability.
problem Efficient and scalable simulation-based inference for complex models.
method Sequential inference with truncated proposals.
result TSNPE performs on par with previous methods and scales to complex models.
Traditional sequential multi-object attention models rely on a recurrent mechanism to infer object relations. We propose a relational extension (R-SQAIR) of one such attention model (SQAIR) by endowing it with a module with strong relational inductive bias that computes in parallel pairwise interactions between inferre…
VISA improves inference efficiency for complex models.
problem Efficient approximate inference in computationally intensive models.
method Sequential sample-average approximations within a trust region.
result VISA achieves comparable accuracy with computational savings.
New method uses hyperbolic space for faster phylogenetic tree inference.
problem Inefficient Euclidean-based phylogenetic inference in high dimensions.
method Developed novel hyperbolic extensions of sequential search algorithms and variational inference methods.
result Improved speed, scalability and performance in phylogenetic inference.
Dynamic SBI improves SBI efficiency without rounds, reducing simulation and training costs.
problem Efficiently perform complex scientific inference with high-dimensional data.
method Adaptive dataset transformation, parallel simulation and training.
result Significant improvements in simulation and training efficiency.
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors…
Gaussian processes help in modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
problem Modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
method Sequential inference for Gaussian processes.
result Gaussian processes enable efficient and accurate modeling of complex relationships.
Cooperation is often implicitly assumed when learning from other agents. Cooperation implies that the agent selecting the data, and the agent learning from the data, have the same goal, that the learner infer the intended hypothesis. Recent models in human and machine learning have demonstrated the possibility of coope…
SNPLA uses normalizing flows for efficient inference in implicit models.
problem Efficient inference in implicit models with complex likelihood and posterior learning.
method Sequential Neural Posterior and Likelihood Approximation (SNPLA) algorithm using normalizing flows.
result SNPLA achieves competitive performance with faster posterior draws compared to MCMC methods.
NAS-X improves inference and model learning for SLVMs.
problem Challenges in analytic inference and model learning for flexible SLVMs.
method NAS-X combines reweighted wake-sleep and smoothing sequential Monte Carlo.
result NAS-X provides low-bias and low-variance gradient estimates.
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical D…
Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.
problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.
SFSVI uses Gaussian mixtures to approximate neural network outputs for continual learning.
problem Learning new tasks without forgetting old ones in neural networks.
method Sequential function-space variational inference with Gaussian mixture approximation.
result Gaussian mixture SFSVI outperforms other methods in continual learning.
Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior…
New method uses Fokker-Planck equation for sampling and inference.
problem Intractability of evaluating probability density in practical applications.
method Reformulates Fokker-Planck equation as a particle flow method, using velocity field.
result Turns intractable density evaluation into an advantage for variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.
Extends PPI to sequential setting, improving inference over time.
problem Sequential data growth with unlabelled data.
method Prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures using Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures.
result Asymptotically valid uniformly over time, accommodating prior knowledge.
Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for each possible environment. The predictive distribution can then be constructed b…
Researchers develop a new SMC sampler for Wishart processes to improve dynamic covariance inference.
problem Challenging inference of dynamic covariance in various scientific fields.
method Introduce Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process.
result SMC sampling provides more robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance.
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We describe a procedure for constructing and learning a structured neural network whic…
New method uses transport maps for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters.
method Estimation of structured transport maps to extract conditional distributions.
result Gradient-based characterization of posterior density for online parameter estimation.
Warm-start strategies speed up GP inference by 19x.
problem Efficient sequential inference in Gaussian processes.
method Three warm-start strategies exploiting smaller linear systems.
result Warm-starting achieves up to 19x speed-up in convergence.
We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data in order to learn a model of the likelihood in the region of high posterior dens…
SLHF uses sequential game theory to optimize preferences from human feedback.
problem Optimizing preferences from human feedback in sequential settings.
method SLHF frames the problem as a sequential-move game between Leader and Follower, decomposing the optimization into refinement and adversarial optimization.
result SLHF achieves strong alignment across diverse preference datasets and scales to large models.
Improves inference-time alignment for diffusion models without updating weights.
problem Aligning diffusion models without updating weights for high-reward outputs.
method Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC) for variance reduction and efficiency.
result Improves primary alignment objectives on text generation tasks.
Symmetric CNNs improve sequential recommendation and protein structure prediction.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in sequential recommendation and protein structure inference.
method Developed a CNN architecture that preserves symmetry in convolutional layers, using parameterized convolutional kernels.
result Symmetric structured CNNs achieve better performance with fewer parameters.
This paper speeds up iterative GP inference with warm starting.
problem Improving scalability of Gaussian process inference.
method Warm starting sequential posteriors using known solutions.
result Significant speed-ups and improved Bayesian optimisation performance.
PASOA optimizes Bayesian design by improving SMC samplers and EIG.
problem Sequential design optimization for accurate parameter inference.
method Sequential optimization using contrastive estimation, SMC samplers, and tempering.
result PASOA optimizes design and inference with improved consistency.
SigGPDE scales sparse Gaussian processes for sequential data.
problem Predicting and quantifying uncertainty in sequential data.
method Sparse variational inference framework for Gaussian Processes, leveraging GP signature kernel gradients as PDE solutions.
result Significant computational gains and state-of-the-art performance on large sequential datasets.
Parallelizes active learning for Bayesian inference using Nested Sampler.
problem Expensive likelihood evaluations in complex experiments.
method Uses Nested Sampler to generate nearly-optimal batches of candidates in parallel.
result Comparable accuracy to sequential conditioning with efficient parallelization.
LSBI approximates likelihood with linear functions for cosmological parameter estimation.
problem Estimating cosmological parameters from complex data.
method Sequential Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI) using Gaussian approximations.
result LSBI achieves convergence after 4-5 rounds of simulations, comparable to neural methods.
This paper solves the normalizability crisis in sequential inference by introducing bounded information geometry.
problem Structural failure in standard sequential inference architectures when dealing with extreme outliers.
method Non-parametric field actions and bounded information geometry to truncate infinite tails of spatial distributions.
result Empirical benchmarks across three domains show robust estimation without infinite-tailed distributional assumptions.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
AR CI framework handles complex confounders and sequential actions.
problem Low-dimensional confounders and singleton actions in causal inference.
method Sequencification to transform data into sequences, enabling CI with complex confounders and sequential actions.
result AR model can estimate multiple causal quantities using a single model, simplifying inference and improving outcome prediction.
Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable modelers to capture effects that are difficult to characterize analytically or su…
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
problem Inaccurate inference due to partial conditioning of variational posteriors in sequential LVMs.
method Introduces fully-conditioned approximate posteriors to improve generative model performance.
result Improves generative modelling and multi-step prediction performance.
C-kNN-LSH identifies similar patient histories for causal inference in longitudinal data.
problem Estimating causal effects from longitudinal trajectories with high-dimensional confounding.
method C-kNN-LSH uses locality-sensitive hashing to find clinical twins and estimate treatment effects.
result C-kNN-LSH outperforms existing methods in capturing recovery heterogeneity and estimating policy values.
We use SMC with twist functions to improve probabilistic inference in LLMs.
problem Improving probabilistic inference in large language models.
method We use Sequential Monte Carlo with learned twist functions to estimate expected future values and focus inference on promising sequences.
result Twisted SMC improves the accuracy of language model inference and evaluation.
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
problem Online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics.
method Sequential neural architecture with latent filtering and amortized inference.
result Consistently lower negative log-likelihood and mean squared error than baselines.
Sparse Gaussian process quantile regression tackles computational challenges in Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Nonconjugacy and computational cost in Gaussian process quantile regression.
method Sparse Gaussian process framework with Laplace approximation, adaptive inducing-input placement, and sequential data acquisition.
result Accuracy of Laplace approximation and effectiveness of adaptive mechanisms in reducing predictive uncertainty.