A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SLHF uses sequential game theory to optimize preferences from human feedback.
Survey of algorithms to correct past mistakes in prediction.
We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …
pFedGame uses game theory for decentralized federated learning in dynamic networks.
Algorithm learns to play against unknown opponents in sequential games.
In this paper we investigate the Follow the Regularized Leader dynamics in sequential imperfect information games (IIG). We generalize existing results of Poincaré recurrence from normal-form games to zero-sum two-player imperfect information games and other sequential game settings. We then investigate how adapting th…
New method constructs confidence sets for GLMs via game theory.
New approach for adaptive conformal inference using Blackwell's theory.
A new method learns multiple subspaces from data.
As we show using the notion of equilibrium in the theory of infinite sequential games, bubbles and escalations are rational for economic and environmental agents, who believe in an infinite world. This goes against a vision of a self regulating, wise and pacific economy in equilibrium. In other words, in this context, …
Paper compares two forecasters using novel online inference methods.
Game theory finds nowadays a broad range of applications in engineering and machine learning. However, in a derivative-free, expensive black-box context, very few algorithmic solutions are available to find game equilibria. Here, we propose a novel Gaussian-process based approach for solving games in this context. We f…
Deep reinforcement learning has shown its success in game playing. However, 2.5D fighting games would be a challenging task to handle due to ambiguity in visual appearances like height or depth of the characters. Moreover, actions in such games typically involve particular sequential action orders, which also makes the…
Reinforcement learning aids decision-making in economics and finance.
Study of portfolio management under relative performance concerns using mean field games.
We study optimal behavior of energy producers under a CO_2 emission abatement program. We focus on a two-player discrete-time model where each producer is sequentially optimizing her emission and production schedules. The game-theoretic aspect is captured through a reduced-form price-impact model for the CO_2 allowance…
Study optimal policy regret in partially observable Markov games with adaptive opponents.
In this paper we extend the investigation into the transition from sure to probabilistic sniping as introduced in Menkveld and Zoican \cite{mz2017}. In that paper, the authors introduce a stylized version of a competitive game in which high frequency traders (HFTs) interact with each other and liquidity traders. The au…
New algorithms solve nonconvex-nonconcave minimax optimization problems.
Recent years have witnessed significant advances in reinforcement learning (RL), which has registered great success in solving various sequential decision-making problems in machine learning. Most of the successful RL applications, e.g., the games of Go and Poker, robotics, and autonomous driving, involve the participa…
Federated learning linked to mean-field games for large-scale learning.
New discrete-time model shows insider trading dynamics.
EBIs/ESOs substantially change the traditional production/service function because ESOs/EBIs can have different psychological effects(motivation or de-motivation), and can create intangible capital and different economic payoffs. Although Game Theory is flawed, it can be helpful in describing interactions in ESO/EBIs t…
Partial-monitoring games constitute a mathematical framework for sequential decision making problems with imperfect feedback: The learner repeatedly chooses an action, opponent responds with an outcome, and then the learner suffers a loss and receives a feedback signal, both of which are fixed functions of the action a…
The game theory techniques are used to find the equilibrium of a market. Game theory refers to the ways in which strategic interactions among economic agents produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those agents, where the outcomes in question might have been intended by none of the agents. Th…
Recent advances in bandit tools and techniques for sequential learning are steadily enabling new applications and are promising the resolution of a range of challenging related problems. We study the game tree search problem, where the goal is to quickly identify the optimal move in a given game tree by sequentially sa…
New game approximates mean curvature flow evolution.
IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
We investigate how reinforcement learning can be used to train level-designing agents. This represents a new approach to procedural content generation in games, where level design is framed as a game, and the content generator itself is learned. By seeing the design problem as a sequential task, we can use reinforcemen…
We study data-driven assistants that provide congestion forecasts to users of shared facilities (roads, cafeterias, etc.), to support coordination between them, and increase efficiency of such collective systems. Key questions are: (1) when and how much can (accurate) predictions help for coordination, and (2) which as…
The paper extends game theory using Hodge theory on graphs.
Many tasks in modern machine learning can be formulated as finding equilibria in \emph{sequential} games. In particular, two-player zero-sum sequential games, also known as minimax optimization, have received growing interest. It is tempting to apply gradient descent to solve minimax optimization given its popularity a…
New algorithms achieve near-optimal cumulative loss in nonparametric online learning and games.
GeoShapley uses game theory to measure spatial effects in ML models.
Generative ML learns optimal pursuit trajectories in pursuit-evasion games.
We consider the problem of prediction by a machine learning algorithm, called learner, within an adversarial learning setting. The learner's task is to correctly predict the class of data passed to it as a query. However, along with queries containing clean data, the learner could also receive malicious or adversarial …
Paper defines saddle points in asymmetric Dynkin games using martingale theory.
Unified framework for estimating reward functions in competitive games.
Algorithm identifies best arm in combinatorial bandits with semi-bandit feedback.
The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.
We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs of actions. We propose two strategies for the fixed-confidence setting: Maximin…
Game theory applied to splitting surfaces of compact 2-manifolds.
The paper analyzes strategic interactions in a multi-agent reinsurance chain using game theory.
Mean Field Games applied to finance and economics.
Unified framework for feature-based explanations using ANOVA and game theory.
New framework recovers reward and rationality parameters from game behavior.
Online learning algorithms have impressive convergence properties when it comes to risk minimization and convex games on very large problems. However, they are inherently sequential in their design which prevents them from taking advantage of modern multi-core architectures. In this paper we prove that online learning …
The last financial and economic crisis demonstrated the dysfunctional long-term effects of aggressive behaviour in financial markets. Yet, evolutionary game theory predicts that under the condition of strategic dependence a certain degree of aggressive behaviour remains within a given population of agents. However, as …