New distributed EnKF method for non-sequential assimilation of large datasets.
problem Computational intensity and order dependencies in traditional EnKF.
method Distributed computing for full model error covariance matrix.
result Non-sequential assimilation outperforms sequential in performance.
Ensemble methods for classification and clustering have been effectively used for decades, while ensemble learning for outlier detection has only been studied recently. In this work, we design a new ensemble approach for outlier detection in multi-dimensional point data, which provides improved accuracy by reducing err…
Ensemble learning, the machine learning paradigm where multiple algorithms are combined, has exhibited promising perfomance in a variety of tasks. The present work focuses on unsupervised ensemble classification. The term unsupervised refers to the ensemble combiner who has no knowledge of the ground-truth labels that …
Proposes a new method for ensembling neural subnetworks.
problem Computational expense and limited flexibility of traditional deep ensembles.
method Sequential Bayesian neural subnetwork ensembling.
result Outperforms traditional ensembles in various metrics.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.
One of the most tedious tasks in the application of machine learning is model selection, i.e. hyperparameter selection. Fortunately, recent progress has been made in the automation of this process, through the use of sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) methods. This can be used to optimize a cross-validation per…
New algorithm reduces overfitting in neural networks.
problem Overfitting in neural networks.
method Integrates SMC with SGHMC for mini-batch sampling.
result SMCSGHMC outperforms SGD and deep ensembles.
Gradient-free framework for Bayesian experimental design in complex systems.
problem Optimal experimental design in systems where gradient information is unavailable.
method Combines EKI and ALDI for optimization and sampling, with approximations for scalable utility estimation.
result Demonstrates robust, accurate, and efficient experimental design in various complex systems.
Study evaluates reinforcement learning algorithms for sequential experimental design.
problem Lack of generalization in reinforcement learning for experimental design.
method Investigated several reinforcement learning algorithms for sequential experimental design.
result Certain algorithms, using dropout or ensemble approaches, show attractive generalization properties.
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the abilit…
Persistent sampling improves SMC efficiency by retaining and reusing particles.
problem High computational costs and particle impoverishment in SMC.
method Persistent sampling (PS) retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations, using multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions.
result PS achieves more accurate posterior approximations and lower variance in marginal likelihood estimates without additional likelihood evaluations.
Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.
problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.
IE-GP framework learns sequentially arriving data with adaptive kernels.
problem Sequential data adaptation in Gaussian process models.
method Incremental ensemble of Gaussian process learners with adaptive weights.
result IE-GP framework effectively learns and adapts to sequential data.
BAE uses boosting to improve autoencoder ensembles for robust outlier detection.
problem Overfitting in autoencoders limits their effectiveness in unsupervised outlier detection.
method Boosting-based Autoencoder Ensemble (BAE) trains autoencoders sequentially with weighted sampling to reduce outliers and inject diversity.
result BAE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in various outlier detection conditions.
Adaptive XGBoost improves accuracy on evolving data streams by updating the ensemble dynamically.
problem Concept drift in evolving data streams.
method Adapts XGB to update the ensemble with new data, maintaining consistency with current concept.
result Improves classification accuracy on evolving data streams compared to other methods.
In the context of variable selection, ensemble learning has gained increasing interest due to its great potential to improve selection accuracy and to reduce false discovery rate. A novel ordering-based selective ensemble learning strategy is designed in this paper to obtain smaller but more accurate ensembles. In part…
BI-EqNO improves Bayesian inference with flexible neural operators.
problem Inaccurate estimation of marginal likelihoods in approximate Bayesian methods.
method Equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference.
result BI-EqNO enhances both deterministic and stochastic approaches to Bayesian inference.
This work preserves linear invariants in ensemble filters for non-Gaussian data assimilation.
problem Maintaining critical invariants like mass, stoichiometric balance, and charge in non-Gaussian data assimilation.
method Introducing a novel class of nonlinear ensemble filters using measure transport theory.
result Recovery of a constrained Kalman filter for Gaussian settings and combination with regularization techniques.
Vote-boosting is a sequential ensemble learning method in which the individual classifiers are built on different weighted versions of the training data. To build a new classifier, the weight of each training instance is determined in terms of the degree of disagreement among the current ensemble predictions for that i…
A new ensemble learning method called Residual Likelihood Forests improves performance and reduces model size.
problem Improving machine learning classification performance with compact models.
method Sequential optimization of conditional likelihoods in a boosting-like framework, combining multiplicatively.
result Significant performance improvements and reduced model size compared to other ensemble methods.
BatchEnsemble reduces ensemble costs by 3X in training and testing.
problem High costs for training and testing ensembles of neural networks.
method Defines each weight matrix as a Hadamard product of a shared matrix and a rank-one matrix per member.
result Achieves 3X speedup and 3X memory reduction in test time for ensembles of size 4.
Gradient-free ensemble learns sector forecasts from diverse models.
problem Predicting sector returns in a volatile market.
method Dynamic model combination using out-of-sample R-squared.
result Ensemble outperforms individual models in sector rotation.
Deep learning improves chaotic dynamics filtering without ensemble.
problem Discovering efficient DA schemes for chaotic dynamics.
method Residual Convolutional Neural Network for the analysis step.
result Deep learning achieves ensemble filtering accuracy without an ensemble.
Polynomial chaos surrogates quantify epistemic uncertainty in AI-driven scientific models.
problem Uncertainty in reward estimates hinders interpretability in sequential generative models.
method Fit polynomial chaos expansions to trained models to propagate epistemic uncertainty and quantify sensitivity.
result Interpretable decomposition of reward components driving generative decisions.
AD-EnKFs use machine learning to improve data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.
problem Data assimilation in high-dimensional, unknown dynamics systems.
method Auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters blending machine learning and ensemble Kalman filters.
result AD-EnKFs outperform existing methods in the Lorenz-96 model.
EnKO combines VI and EnKF for efficient latent dynamics inference.
problem Particle degeneracy and biased gradient estimators in SMC-based methods.
method EnKO: hybrid of VI and EnKF.
result EnKO outperforms SMC-based methods in predictive ability and particle efficiency.
Unified framework for ensemble transport-based smoothing of non-Gaussian time series.
problem Bayesian time series re-analysis with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Measure transport approach to derive consistent prior-to-posterior transformations.
result General ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing of state-space models.
EnEMF uses Epanechnikov kernel for high-dimensional filtering, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Suboptimal Gaussian mixture kernel density estimates in high-dimensional settings.
method Ensemble Epanechnikov mixture filter (EnEMF) using optimal Epanechnikov kernel.
result EnEMF reduces error per particle on high-dimensional systems like Lorenz '96.
Boosting meta-trees improve decision tree performance.
problem Overfitting in decision trees.
method Boosting approach to construct multiple meta-trees.
result Ensembles of meta-trees prevent overfitting.
DSDE improves OoD detection by estimating model library proportions.
problem Uncertainty quantification and balanced error rates in model selection for OoD detection.
method Inverted sequential p-value strategies, change-point detection, automatic hyperparameter selection.
result DSDE reduces FPR from 11.07% to 3.31% on CIFAR10.
Despite the success of ensemble classification methods in multi-class classification problems, ensemble methods based on approaches other than bagging have not been widely explored for multi-label classification problems. The Kalman Filter-based Heuristic Ensemble (KFHE) is an ensemble method that exploits the sensor f…
This paper proposes an ensemble of Gaussian processes for Bayesian optimization.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions with limited evaluations.
method An ensemble of Gaussian processes (EGP) for adaptive surrogate modeling, combined with Thompson sampling (TS) for function sampling.
result The proposed EGP-TS method achieves better optimization results than single-GP approaches.
Hybrid model improves sequential data prediction by combining neural and time series models.
problem Nonlinear prediction in online settings with domain-specific feature engineering issues.
method Joint optimization of LSTM for feature extraction and SARIMAX for time series data using state space representations.
result Significant improvements in real-life competition datasets.
EnLSTM network improves log generation from small datasets.
problem Generating well logs from small datasets with high accuracy.
method Combining ENN and C-LSTM networks with perturbation methods.
result 34% reduction in mean-square-error compared to existing models.
A novel CAB-XDE framework predicts speculative stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting speculative stock prices in volatile markets.
method Customized attention BiLSTM with XGBoost, integrating attention mechanism and weight determination theory-error reciprocal method.
result Empirically validated with MAPE of 0.0037, MAE of 84.40, and RMSE of 106.14.
A new machine learning framework called machine collaboration improves prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in machine learning.
method Machine Collaboration (MaC) framework, which uses a circular and interactive learning approach.
result Machine Collaboration framework significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in most cases.
Boosted GFlowNets improve exploration by sequentially training GFlowNets with residual rewards.
problem GFlowNets struggle to evenly explore reward landscapes, leading to poor coverage of high-reward areas.
method Sequential training of an ensemble of GFlowNets, each optimizing a residual reward.
result Boosted GFlowNets achieve better exploration and sample diversity on multimodal benchmarks and peptide design tasks.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
POETS optimizes LLMs by combining policy ensembles and KL regularization.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in decision-making and optimization.
method POETS uses policy ensembles and KL regularization to optimize LLMs efficiently.
result POETS achieves state-of-the-art sample efficiency across various domains.
This paper explores estimating chaotic dynamics and parameters using local ensemble Kalman filters.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamics and parameters from observations.
method Local ensemble Kalman filters with covariance and local domain localisation.
result Rigorously updating global parameters using a local domain ensemble Kalman filter.
Paper presents a machine learning framework for corn yield forecasting.
problem Accurate and timely prediction of corn yields in the US Corn Belt.
method Machine learning ensembles considering complete and partial in-season weather data.
result Ensemble models outperform individual models, achieving best prediction accuracy.
Ant colonies and boosting algorithms both reduce bias and variance through adaptive mechanisms.
problem Understanding the mathematical principles behind ensemble learning and ant colony behavior.
method Developed a formal mapping between AdaBoost's adaptive reweighting and ant recruitment dynamics.
result Proved that the fundamental theorem of weak learnability has a direct analog in colony decision-making.
SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Gaussian process regression is a machine learning approach which has been shown its power for estimation of unknown functions. However, Gaussian processes suffer from high computational complexity, as in a basic form they scale cubically with the number of observations. Several approaches based on inducing points were …
We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. This novel approach pairs the Exponential Weights forecaster with a very large ensemble of experts. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mo…
Develops efficient time series prediction intervals.
problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for time series data.
method Introduces exttt{EnbPI} algorithm for time series data.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.
Combines machine learning and data assimilation for improved forecasting.
problem Improving forecast accuracy with noisy observations.
method Sequentially learns a machine-learning model using an ensemble Kalman filter.
result The combined model achieves good forecast skill and computational efficiency.