New Monte Carlo method outperforms existing strategy for estimating Sobol' indices.
problem Estimating first-and total-orders Sobol' indices accurately.
method Comparing two Monte Carlo estimators for Sobol' indices.
result New method outperforms current approach in accuracy.
A new approach to sensitivity analysis without the Sobol decomposition.
problem Traditional sensitivity indices like Sobol indices have limitations.
method Introducing sensitivity measures that generalize existing indices and define interaction effects.
result Sensitivity measures can create new indices and define interaction effects.
Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which o…
Paper introduces efficient methods for estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices.
problem Efficiently estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices in complex models.
method Using randomized points and constraints, the paper develops estimators with optimal convergence rates and low bias.
result The estimators achieve optimal rates of convergence and do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality.
This paper simplifies conditional Sobol' indices calculation using PCE bases.
problem Computational inefficiency and lack of consistency in evaluating conditional Sobol' indices.
method Analytical extraction of conditional Sobol' indices via basis decomposition of PCE expansions.
result Derives closed-form expressions for conditional Sobol' indices.
Gradient-enhanced GSA uses Poincaré chaos expansions for accurate sensitivity analysis.
problem Accurately estimating Sobol' indices with limited data.
method Integrates sparse, gradient-enhanced regression with Poincaré chaos expansions for derivative-based sensitivity analysis.
result Accurately estimated Sobol' indices using limited data.
Study improves MACD trading strategy with volume and price adjustments.
problem Signal lag and false signals in traditional MACD trading rules.
method Develops VP-MACD framework with sensitivity calibration.
result Proposed framework outperforms baseline MACD in profitability and risk-adjusted return.
Invariant detects sliceness of virtual knots with specific chord indices.
problem Detecting sliceness in virtual knots with chord indices.
method Constructs an invariant using sliceness obstruction and sensitivity to Δ-move.
result Invariant detects sliceness and is sensitive to chord indices.
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
Paper proposes a cost-sensitive conformal training method with provably controllable learning bounds.
problem Uncertainty quantification and learning bounds in conformal prediction.
method Cost-sensitive conformal training algorithm that minimizes the expected size of prediction sets using rank weighting.
result Theoretical analysis shows tightness between weighted objective and expected size of conformal prediction sets.
The paper develops methods to analyze sensitivity in stochastic models using surrogate models.
problem Quantifying the impact of input variability on stochastic simulators with randomness.
method The authors propose using generalized lambda models to emulate response distributions of stochastic simulators and estimate sensitivity indices.
result The proposed method can estimate sensitivity indices even with strong heteroskedasticity and small signal-to-noise ratio.
Enhances sensitivity analysis for correlated inputs.
problem Estimating sensitivity indices in models with correlated inputs.
method Proposes an extension of Sobol' estimator using a linear correlation model.
result Improves accuracy in variance-based sensitivity analysis.
Global sensitivity analysis improves BNN hyperparameter selection for accurate uncertainty quantification.
problem Difficulties in obtaining accurate uncertainty quantification with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs).
method Global sensitivity analysis of BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings.
result Many hyperparameters interact to affect both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Study adapts AI research methods to analyze image augmentation impacts on neural network operations.
problem Understanding how image augmentation affects neural network performance and sensitivity.
method Adapted treatment-control paradigm, uses variance decomposition, Sobol indices, and Shapley values for sensitivity analysis.
result Visualizes and quantifies sensitivity to different image augmentation parameters.
A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.
problem Constructing sensitivity measures for any elicitable functional.
method Score-based sensitivities constructed via consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated intuitive and desirable properties of score-based sensitivities.
A new method ranks and selects features without model fitting.
problem Feature importance measures algorithm-specific and need improvement.
method Integrates global sensitivity analysis with forward selection and backward elimination.
result Demonstrates clear advantage over state-of-the-art methods.
PCA is often used in anomaly detection and statistical process control tasks. For bivariate data, we prove that the minor projection (the least varying projection) of the PCA-rotated data is the most sensitive to distributional changes, where sensitivity is defined by the Hellinger distance between distributions before…
This work presents deep asymmetric networks with a set of node-wise variant activation functions. The nodes' sensitivities are affected by activation function selections such that the nodes with smaller indices become increasingly more sensitive. As a result, features learned by the nodes are sorted by the node indices…
We investigate the topics of sensitivity and robustness in feedforward and convolutional neural networks. Combining energy landscape techniques developed in computational chemistry with tools drawn from formal methods, we produce empirical evidence indicating that networks corresponding to lower-lying minima in the opt…
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
Sobol method applied to probabilistic networks for sensitivity analysis.
problem Measuring influence of probabilistic network nodes on a quantity of interest.
method Transforms global sensitivity analysis into marginalization inference exploiting network structure.
result Efficient computation of sensitivity indices for complex networks.
Stock market indices are one of the most investigated complex systems in econophysics. Here we extend the existing literature on stock markets in connection with nonextensive statistical mechanics. We explore the nonextensivity of price volatilities for 34 major stock market indices between 2010 and 2019. We discover t…
Generalizes Hoeffding's decomposition for dependent inputs under mild conditions.
problem Performing global sensitivity analysis on black-box models with dependent inputs.
method Proposes a novel framework based on probability theory, functional analysis, and combinatorics to handle dependencies.
result Any square-integrable, real-valued function of random elements with mild dependence assumptions can be uniquely additively decomposed.
In unsupervised machine learning, agreement between partitions is commonly assessed with so-called external validity indices. Researchers tend to use and report indices that quantify agreement between two partitions for all clusters simultaneously. Commonly used examples are the Rand index and the adjusted Rand index. …
Proposes FOAGP for efficient orthogonal effect decomposition of black-box computer experiments.
problem Challenges in sensitivity analysis of black-box computer experiments with complex, nonlinear functional outputs.
method Functional-output orthogonal additive Gaussian process (FOAGP) with conditional orthogonality constraint.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in orthogonal effect decomposition and variance decomposition through simulations and real-world application.
Proposes counterfactual explainability for causal attribution, extending variance analysis methods.
problem Lack of mechanistic understanding in existing tools for explaining complex models.
method Extends global sensitivity analysis methods to causal explanations using directed acyclic graphs.
result Developed methods to estimate counterfactual explainability and applied to income inequality analysis.
Active learning method improves sensitivity analysis of complex models.
problem Limited model evaluations in global sensitivity analysis.
method Gradient-based active learning with Gaussian process.
result Improves sensitivity analysis accuracy with reduced evaluations.
We present a proxy dataset of vital signs with class labels indicating patient transitions from the ward to intensive care units called Ward2ICU. Patient privacy is protected using a Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network to implicitly learn an approximation of the data distribution, allowing us to sample synthetic…
The paper examines stability of ReLU networks in tangent space and activation regions.
problem Stability and sensitivity of ReLU networks to small changes.
method Tangent sensitivity measure for ReLU networks, focusing on stability induced by individual examples.
result Tangent sensitivity correlates with the distribution of activation regions and generalization gap.
Neural framework for conditional OT maps learns from categorical and continuous variables.
problem Learning conditional optimal transport maps between complex distributions.
method Hypernetwork generates adaptive transport layer parameters based on conditioning variables.
result Our method outperforms simpler conditioning methods in comprehensive ablation studies.
Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space H of real-valued functions and a suitable measure mu over the source space D (subset of R), we decompose H as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for mu and its orthogonal in H. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA r…
Bayesian approach improves AdaLoRA's performance and efficiency.
problem Improving the efficiency and performance of adaptive low-rank adaptation.
method Utilized Bayesian metrics and the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer for adaptive parameter budget allocation.
result Bayesian counterpart outperforms sensitivity-based importance metric and is faster than AdaLoRA.
This study prioritizes temporal resolution over spatial in energy systems models due to higher influence.
problem The impact of spatial and temporal resolution on energy system models.
method Global sensitivity analysis to compare structural aspects, spatial, and temporal resolution.
result Temporal resolution has a higher influence on all results parameters compared to spatial resolution.
The paper develops a method to achieve fairness in predictions using Wasserstein barycenters.
problem Learning a fair real-valued function independent of sensitive attributes.
method Establishing a connection between fair regression and optimal transport theory, deriving a close form expression for the optimal fair predictor as the Wasserstein barycenter of sensitive groups.
result The optimal fair predictor's distribution is the Wasserstein barycenter of sensitive groups' distributions, offering an intuitive interpretation and a simple post-processing algorithm.
The development of global sensitivity analysis of numerical model outputs has recently raised new issues on 1-dimensional Poincaré inequalities. Typically two kind of sensitivity indices are linked by a Poincaré type inequality, which provide upper bounds of the most interpretable index by using the other one, cheaper …
This study compares microscopic and macroscopic models for commodity index derivatives pricing.
problem Lack of accurate futures curve dynamics in macroscopic models for real scenarios.
method Calibrated both microscopic and macroscopic models using S\&P GSCI Crude Oil excess-return index derivatives.
result Macroscopic models struggle to capture futures curve dynamics, affecting pricing and sensitivities.
Paper introduces DP TDA for near-optimal private persistence diagrams.
problem Challenges in privatizing topological data analysis.
method Sensitivity analysis of persistence diagrams, use of exponential mechanism.
result Proposes near-optimal privacy mechanism for TDA.
We develop three efficient approaches for generating visual explanations from 3D convolutional neural networks (3D-CNNs) for Alzheimer's disease classification. One approach conducts sensitivity analysis on hierarchical 3D image segmentation, and the other two visualize network activations on a spatial map. Visual chec…
Bayesian analysis reveals asymmetry in financial data.
problem Quantifying asymmetry in financial time series data.
method Bayesian approach, t-Test generalization, two data distribution models, sensitivity analysis.
result Statistical significance of gain/loss asymmetry amounts.
Study enhances financial forecasting with machine learning and fuzzy MCDM.
problem Increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity.
method Integrates machine learning (XGBoost, LSTM, GNN) and intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM.
result High forecasting accuracy with low MAPE and narrow confidence intervals.
A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for hybrid uncertainty sensitivity analysis.
problem Quantifying the influence of hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on high-dimensional system responses.
method A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for sensitivity analysis under hybrid uncertainty.
result Concurrent double Möbius inversion orthogonally decomposes global dependence measure into pure aleatory effects, pure epistemic effects, and their interaction contributions.
We address the problem of algorithmic fairness: ensuring that sensitive variables do not unfairly influence the outcome of a classifier. We present an approach based on empirical risk minimization, which incorporates a fairness constraint into the learning problem. It encourages the conditional risk of the learned clas…
Proposes ICE-based metric for better understanding interactions in black-box models.
problem Misleading global sensitivity metrics in black-box models due to interaction effects.
method Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves to compute feature importance and interactions.
result ICE-based metric provides richer insights into feature importance and interactions.
Study finds phase transition in context-sensitive language model with short-range interactions.
problem Understanding phase transitions in language models with short-range interactions.
method Constructed a random language model with short-range interactions and investigated its statistical properties.
result Phase transition occurs in context-sensitive language models with constant context length.
Deep learning optimizes portfolio Sharpe ratio without forecasting returns.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights without accurate expected returns forecasts.
method Using deep learning models to directly optimize ETF portfolios based on market indices.
result Our model outperformed other algorithms over the 2011-2020 period, including financial instabilities.
Extensions to given-data Sobol' index estimators for large models.
problem Efficiently compute Sobol' indices for models with many inputs.
method General definition, streaming algorithm, heuristic filtering.
result Comparable accuracy and lower memory usage for large models.
The K-means algorithm is arguably the most popular data clustering method, commonly applied to processed datasets in some "feature spaces", as is in spectral clustering. Highly sensitive to initializations, however, K-means encounters a scalability bottleneck with respect to the number of clusters K as this number grow…
Study on adversarial training's impact on deep neural reinforcement learning policies.
problem Vulnerability of deep neural reinforcement learning policies to imperceptible adversarial perturbations.
method Two parallel approaches: Fourier spectrum analysis and feature sensitivity measurement.
result Adversarially trained policies are more sensitive to low frequency perturbations.