A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes extensions to semi-parametric models using BART for shared covariates.
Semi-parametric survival analysis methods like the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) regression (Cox, 1972) are a popular approach for survival analysis. These methods involve fitting of the log-proportional hazard as a function of the covariates and are convenient as they do not require estimation of the baseline hazard …
This research uses DPPs to improve semi-parametric regression models.
Physical modeling of robotic system behavior is the foundation for controlling many robotic mechanisms to a satisfactory degree. Mechanisms are also typically designed in a way that good model accuracy can be achieved with relatively simple models and model identification strategies. If the modeling accuracy using phys…
The paper proposes a semi-parametric Bayesian network model using Gaussian Processes and Horseshoe priors.
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
Proposes a new algorithm for graph-based semi-parametric contextual bandits.
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
The paper studies binary classification and aims at estimating the underlying regression function which is the conditional expectation of the class labels given the inputs. The regression function is the key component of the Bayes optimal classifier, moreover, besides providing optimal predictions, it can also assess t…
This paper presents a semi-parametric algorithm for online learning of a robot inverse dynamics model. It combines the strength of the parametric and non-parametric modeling. The former exploits the rigid body dynamics equa- tion, while the latter exploits a suitable kernel function. We provide an extensive comparison …
In the compressive learning theory, instead of solving a statistical learning problem from the input data, a so-called sketch is computed from the data prior to learning. The sketch has to capture enough information to solve the problem directly from it, allowing to discard the dataset from the memory. This is useful w…
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
The paper connects semi-parametric estimates to European option pricing.
Paper compares different models for time-to-event analysis.
We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value function takes a known parametric form in the treatment, but we are agnostic on how i…
Semi-parametric framework for nonlinear system identification
New method removes interference bias in causal models.
We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance in…
PGF kernels analyze spherical data using generalized RBF kernels.
DebiNet uses over-parameterized neural networks to improve linear model performance and debiasing.
Develops a new framework for joint portfolio risk forecasting.
Study optimizes estimating linear functionals from observational data without strict overlap.
The paper tackles robust policy learning in MDPs using statistical methods.
Develops coresets for scalable multivariate distribution estimation.
SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.
Proposes methods to include distributional information in MV-SDEs for better modeling of interacting particle systems.
Generalizes prediction-powered inference for binary classifier evaluation.
Estimating linear, mean-square continuous functionals is a pivotal challenge in statistics. In high-dimensional contexts, this estimation is often performed under the assumption of exact model sparsity, meaning that only a small number of parameters are precisely non-zero. This excludes models where linear formulations…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…
The paper develops efficient estimators for semi-parametric binary models in distributed computing.
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
This work uses diffusion models for accurate signal recovery from semi-parametric models.
In this paper we address the problem of learning the structure of a Bayesian network in domains with continuous variables. This task requires a procedure for comparing different candidate structures. In the Bayesian framework, this is done by evaluating the {em marginal likelihood/} of the data given a candidate struct…
In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by a non-parametric autocopula and parametric marginals. One advantage of using au…
In this paper, we consider a generalized multivariate regression problem where the responses are monotonic functions of linear transformations of predictors. We propose a semi-parametric algorithm based on the ordering of the responses which is invariant to the functional form of the transformation function. We prove t…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo m…
Highly Autonomous Driving (HAD) systems rely on deep neural networks for the visual perception of the driving environment. Such networks are trained on large manually annotated databases. In this work, a semi-parametric approach to one-shot learning is proposed, with the aim of bypassing the manual annotation step requ…
Motivated by the application of real-time pricing in e-commerce platforms, we consider the problem of revenue-maximization in a setting where the seller can leverage contextual information describing the customer's history and the product's type to predict her valuation of the product. However, her true valuation is un…
Optimizes AI learning with limited human feedback budgets.
Study dynamic pricing with semi-parametric models to minimize regret.
Missing data is an important challenge when dealing with high dimensional data arranged in the form of an array. In this paper, we propose methods for estimation of the parameters of array variate normal probability model from partially observed multiway data. The methods developed here are useful for missing data impu…
PGAE uses predictions to guide active experimentation.
This paper develops DRO estimators for EVT statistics using point processes.
A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and the latent conditional expectile. Nonlinear threshold specification is further i…
We introduce a balloon estimator in a generalized expectation-maximization method for estimating all parameters of a Gaussian mixture model given one data sample per mixture component. Instead of limiting explicitly the model size, this regularization strategy yields low-complexity sparse models where the number of eff…
In this paper we tackle the problem of estimating the power-law tail exponent of income distributions by using the Hill's estimator. A subsample semi-parametric bootstrap procedure minimising the mean squared error is used to choose the power-law cutoff value optimally. This technique is applied to personal income data…
RESPIRE calibrates low-cost air-quality sensors for CO levels, resistant to outliers.
Develops a new model for network estimation from multi-variate data.