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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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15304560 · Oct 201919922001200920172026
48 results for semantic surprise

New framework detects near vs. far out-of-distribution samples for AI safety.

problem Binary OOD detection fails to distinguish between semantically close and distant unknown risks.
method Ternary classification based on Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds and Semantic Surprise Vector.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on ternary OOD detection task.

LLMs show surprising confidence in their answers, beyond just tokens.

problem LLMs lack meaningful confidence estimates for their responses.
method Semantic calibration test based on local loss optimality and equivalence classes.
result Base LLMs are semantically calibrated across tasks, contrary to expectations.

Auto-Surprise automates recommender system selection and optimization.

problem Finding the best algorithm and hyperparameters for recommender systems.
method Extends Surprise library with TPE optimization for algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning.
result Significantly faster in finding optimal hyperparameters compared to grid search.

iREPA shows spatial structure, not global semantic, drives generation performance in REPA.

problem Understanding what aspect of the target representation matters for generation.
method Empirical analysis of 27 vision encoders, two modifications to REPA.
result Spatial structure, not global semantic, drives generation performance.

Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree of commitment to a belief via the entropy of the belief distribution. We find th…

2016-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off between forgetting old observations and integrating them with the new ones. The mod…

2019-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.

problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.

EMIX minimizes surprise in multi-agent reinforcement learning.

problem Surprise and approximation bias in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Energy-based MIXer (EMIX) for minimizing surprise across multiple agents.
result EMIX demonstrates consistent stable performance in challenging StarCraft II scenarios.

The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.

problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.

DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.

problem Limited exploration in large action spaces when resources are scarce.
method Delight-gated exploration (DE) that limits exploration actions based on a gate price set by the product of expected improvement and surprise.
result DE outperforms ε\varepsilon-greedy and Thompson Sampling in terms of regret across various bandit and MDP settings.

Semantic TrueLearn uses semantic graphs to improve educational recommendation systems.

problem Challenges in handling semantic and hierarchical structure in knowledge areas.
method Introduces a novel learner model that exploits semantic relatedness between knowledge components using a Wikipedia link graph.
result Achieves statistically significant improvements in predictive performance for educational engagement.

TradeR uses RL to execute trades in real markets, minimizing surprise and catastrophe.

problem Minimizing surprise and catastrophe in high-frequency trading.
method Hierarchical RL with energy-based surprise value function.
result TradeR outperforms in abrupt price changes and maintains profitability.

In this paper, we describe a new surprising example of a fibration of the Clifford torus S3 x S3 in the 7-sphere by great 3-spheres, which is fiberwise homogeneous but whose fibers are not parallel to one another. In particular it is not part of a Hopf fibration. A fibration is fiberwise homogeneous when for any two fi…

2014-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

The purpose of the present paper is to introduce and explore two surprises that arise when we apply a standard procedure to study the number of finite type invariants of 3-manifolds introduced independently by M. Goussarov and K. Habiro based on surgery on claspers, Y-graphs or clovers, \cite{Gu,Ha,GGP}. One surprise i…

2000-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Transfer learning aims at building robust prediction models by transferring knowledge gained from one problem to another. In the semantic Web, learning tasks are enhanced with semantic representations. We exploit their semantics to augment transfer learning by dealing with when to transfer with semantic measurements an…

2019-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper shows how integrating categorical semantics can enhance unsupervised domain translation.

problem Improving unsupervised domain translation between perceptually different domains.
method Learning invariant categorical semantic features in an unsupervised manner and conditioning them on the style encoder.
result Conditioning the style encoder on learned categorical semantics improves translation and stylization.

SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.

problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.

This work provides uncertainty intervals for semantic latent variables in disentangled latent spaces.

problem Challenges in providing meaningful uncertainty quantification for semantic information in disentangled latent spaces.
method Uses quantile regression to output heuristic uncertainty intervals, calibrates these intervals to contain true latent values, and propagates them through the generator.
result Reliably communicates semantically meaningful, principled, and instance-adaptive uncertainty in image super-resolution and image completion.

New diffusion models improve counterfactual image generation with semantic control.

problem Challenges in preserving identity, maintaining quality, and ensuring causal model faithfulness in counterfactual image generation.
method Integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through Pearlian causality, introducing spatial, semantic, and dynamic abduction.
result Demonstrates high-level semantic identity preservation and principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.

New approach uses SPG for semantic communication without a known channel model.

problem Designing efficient semantic communication systems without a known channel model.
method Applying Stochastic Policy Gradient (SPG) for reinforcement learning.
result Achieves comparable performance to model-aware approaches with a decreased convergence rate.

Unsupervised scheme ranks sentences in text documents based on semantic importance.

problem Ranking sentences in text documents without labeled data.
method Extracts essential words and phrases, constructs semantic phrase and sentence graphs, applies PageRank, combines scores, and optimizes for topic diversity.
result SSR outperforms individual judges and compares favorably with combined rankings on benchmarks.

A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.

problem Understanding how various market participants respond to macroeconomic surprises.
method Developed a calibrated data generation process (DGP) with four trader archetypes and a Monte Carlo simulation.
result Higher information and lower risk-averse traders take larger positions and achieve higher average wealth.

SPAT improves adversarial robustness by preserving semantics in adversarial training.

problem Adversarial examples often have different semantics than original data, introducing unintended biases.
method Semantics-preserving adversarial training (SPAT) that encourages pixel perturbation shared among all classes.
result SPAT improves adversarial robustness and achieves state-of-the-art results in CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100.

Proposes CSG model to separate semantic and variation factors for OOD prediction.

problem Out-of-distribution examples cause conventional models to mix semantic and variation factors, leading to poor performance.
method Causal Semantic Generative model (CSG) based on causal reasoning, using variational Bayes for efficient learning and prediction.
result CSG can identify semantic factor and improve OOD prediction performance.

Building deep reinforcement learning agents that can generalize and adapt to unseen environments remains a fundamental challenge for AI. This paper describes progresses on this challenge in the context of man-made environments, which are visually diverse but contain intrinsic semantic regularities. We propose a hybrid …

2018-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Embodied cognition states that semantics is encoded in the brain as firing patterns of neural circuits, which are learned according to the statistical structure of human multimodal experience. However, each human brain is idiosyncratically biased, according to its subjective experience history, making this biological s…

2019-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

It is very useful to integrate human knowledge and experience into traditional neural networks for faster learning speed, fewer training samples and better interpretability. However, due to the obscured and indescribable black box model of neural networks, it is very difficult to design its architecture, interpret its …

2018-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have obtained extraordinary success in the generation of realistic images, a domain where a lower pixel-level accuracy is acceptable. We study the problem, not yet tackled in the literature, of generating semantic images starting from a prior distribution. Intuitively this problem…

2019-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Unsupervised segmentation learns features without labels, improving accuracy.

problem Discover and localize semantically meaningful categories in images without annotations.
method Separates feature learning from cluster compactification; distills unsupervised features into discrete semantic labels using a contrastive loss function.
result Significant improvement over prior state of the art on semantic segmentation challenges.

Semantic inpainting is the task of inferring missing pixels in an image given surrounding pixels and high level image semantics. Most semantic inpainting algorithms are deterministic: given an image with missing regions, a single inpainted image is generated. However, there are often several plausible inpaintings for a…

2018-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

In iterative supervised learning algorithms it is common to reach a point in the search where no further induction seems to be possible with the available data. If the search is continued beyond this point, the risk of overfitting increases significantly. Following the recent developments in inductive semantic stochast…

2017-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗