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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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62123185246 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for self-normalized inference

The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.

problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.

Study improves self-normalized bounds for vector-valued processes beyond sub-Gaussianity.

problem Limited understanding of self-normalized concentration for vector-valued processes outside sub-Gaussian frameworks.
method Developed concentration inequalities for self-normalized processes with light tails (e.g., Bennett, Bernstein bounds) for vector-valued data.
result Provided new insights and bounds for self-normalized processes with non-sub-Gaussian distributions.

Calculation of the log-normalizer is a major computational obstacle in applications of log-linear models with large output spaces. The problem of fast normalizer computation has therefore attracted significant attention in the theoretical and applied machine learning literature. In this paper, we analyze a recently pro…

2015-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

New bounds on self-normalized martingales improve online linear regression performance.

problem Improving regret bounds in online linear regression.
method Characterizing scale-invariant bounds on self-normalized martingales.
result For d=1d=1, O(logT)O(\log T) doubly-uniform regret is possible; for d>1d>1, sublinear doubly-uniform regret is impossible.

This paper develops dimension-agnostic inference methods for high-dimensional data.

problem Understanding how classical inference methods behave in high-dimensional settings.
method Using variational representations, sample splitting, and self-normalization to create a refined test statistic.
result The resulting statistic has a Gaussian limiting distribution regardless of how dimensionality scales with sample size.

New method improves feature importance assessment in random forests.

problem Improving feature importance measures for random forests.
method Hypothesis testing via self-normalized feature-residual correlation test (FACT).
result The method provides theoretically justified feature importance tests with controlled type I error and appealing power.

High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…

2018-10-12abs ↗pdf ↗

A new linear contextual bandit algorithm with improved regret bound.

problem Efficiently solving linear contextual bandit problems with reduced regret.
method Proposes a novel estimator embedded with exploration and a self-normalized bound.
result Regret bound matches lower bound of Ω(dT)Ω(\sqrt{dT}) up to logarithmic factors.

We improve bounds for stochastic processes, especially those with heavy tails.

problem Bounding the concentration of sub-ψψ processes with heavy tails.
method Variational approach to concentration, focusing on sub-Gaussian and other tail conditions.
result First dimension-free self-normalized empirical Bernstein inequality.

Paper proposes a federated learning method for quantile inference with local differential privacy.

problem Federated learning of quantile inference under local differential privacy constraints.
method Local stochastic gradient descent with randomized mechanism for privacy and efficiency.
result Asymptotic normality and functional central limit theorem for the proposed estimator.

Self Normalizing Flows improve normalizing flows by reducing computational complexity.

problem Efficient gradient computation in normalizing flows, especially in Jacobian determinant terms.
method Introducing Self Normalizing Flows that replace expensive terms with learned approximate inverses.
result Models can be trained more quickly and perform better than functionally constrained counterparts.

A new method for evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits improves confidence intervals and policy quality.

problem Evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits with logged data.
method Self-normalized Importance Weighting (SN) estimator with Efron-Stein tail inequality and multiplicative bias control.
result The method provides tighter confidence intervals and better policy selection compared to competitors.

New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.

problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.

Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a mismatch between the model and inference. Motivated by this, we consider the sam…

2019-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves variational inference for better posterior approximation.

problem Challenges in minimizing inclusive KL divergence for amortized variational inference.
method Likelihood-tempered sequential Monte Carlo samplers to estimate inclusive KL gradient.
result SMC-Wake method fits variational distributions more accurately than existing methods.

Paper develops methods for statistical inference in SGD with infinite variance.

problem Challenges in statistical inference for SGD with infinite variance.
method Model-agnostic methodology based on weak convergence and subsampling calibration.
result Asymptotically valid confidence regions for SGD in both finite and infinite variance regimes.

New method uses Rashomon sets to improve Bayesian inference in factorial designs.

problem Combustion of model uncertainty in factorial designs leads to multimodal posterior and convergence issues.
method Rashomon-seeded annealing, integrating high-performing models as warm start for AIS.
result Restores full posterior inference without exhaustive enumeration of model space.

The paper proposes a method for constructing confidence sets that adapt to the cardinality of the smallest component of a mean vector.

problem Forming confidence sets for the smallest component of an unknown mean vector.
method Sample splitting and self-normalization approach to test each component for being the smallest, maintaining validity regardless of dd and nn.
result The proposed tests achieve the local minimax separation rate and robust to heavy-tailed distributions.

Current approaches to amortizing Bayesian inference focus solely on approximating the posterior distribution. Typically, this approximation is, in turn, used to calculate expectations for one or more target functions - a computational pipeline which is inefficient when the target function(s) are known upfront. In this …

2019-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Locally private online quantile regression method addresses privacy constraints.

problem Estimating and inferring quantile regression under local differential privacy constraints.
method Developed a finite-alphabet channel where users compute local contributions, apply randomized response, and send reports. A public decoder corrects distortion and reconstructs inputs for averaging.
result Established local privacy, decoder unbiasedness, consistency, asymptotic normality, and inference for scalar contrasts.

Deep Learning has revolutionized vision via convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and natural language processing via recurrent neural networks (RNNs). However, success stories of Deep Learning with standard feed-forward neural networks (FNNs) are rare. FNNs that perform well are typically shallow and, therefore cannot …

2017-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We provide a brief tutorial on the use of concentration inequalities as they apply to system identification of state-space parameters of linear time invariant systems, with a focus on the fully observed setting. We draw upon tools from the theories of large-deviations and self-normalized martingales, and provide both d…

2019-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces regret for logistic bandits without κκ dependency.

problem Logistic bandits have poor frequentist regret guarantees due to large κκ.
method Optimistic algorithm based on self-normalized martingale tail-inequality.
result Achieves ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret with no κκ dependency.

New methods improve memory efficiency for sampling from complex distributions.

problem Sampling from complex unnormalized distributions over discrete domains.
method Two novel training methods for discrete diffusion samplers.
result Achieve state-of-the-art results in unsupervised combinatorial optimization.

Improved sampling efficiency for inverse problems using variance-reduced diffusion methods.

problem Efficiently estimating noisy scores in inverse problems.
method Developed a nonparametric self-normalized importance sampling estimator and a state-dependent blending rule.
result Improved sample quality for fixed simulation budgets in synthetic targets and PDE-governed inverse problems.

Optimizes assortment decisions with a new OFU scheme for online choice problems.

problem Online assortment optimization under stochastic choice with revenue performance and inference quality considerations.
method Forced-exploration OFU scheme combining regularized estimators for decision making and inference.
result Explicit regret bound and error bounds for approximate optimistic actions, showing Pareto optimality.

A new method estimates rare events using tensor trains.

problem Estimating rare event probabilities in high-dimensional problems.
method Approximating optimal importance distribution via tensor-train decompositions and compositions.
result Better variance reduction and efficient computation of rare event probabilities.

New algorithm reduces reinforcement learning regret for linear MDPs with unknown transitions.

problem Adversarial linear mixture MDPs with bandit feedback and unknown transition.
method Proposes a new algorithm with a least square estimator and self-normalized concentration.
result Achieves improved regret bound with high probability.

Study finds racial bias in pulse oximeter readings has minimal impact on ICU ventilation rates.

problem Racial disparities in pulse oximeter readings affect clinical decisions in ICU settings.
method Causal inference using path-specific effects and doubly robust estimator.
result Minimal impact of racial discrepancies on invasive ventilation rates, but more pronounced on ventilation duration.

Multiplicative stochasticity such as Dropout improves the robustness and generalizability of deep neural networks. Here, we further demonstrate that always-on multiplicative stochasticity combined with simple threshold neurons are sufficient operations for deep neural networks. We call such models Neural Sampling Machi…

2019-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Online learning to rank is a core problem in machine learning. In Lattimore et al. (2018), a novel online learning algorithm was proposed based on topological sorting. In the paper they provided a set of self-normalized inequalities (a) in the algorithm as a criterion in iterations and (b) to provide an upper bound for…

2020-01-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework for evaluating ad auctions using stochastic modeling.

problem Challenges in evaluating deterministic ad auctions.
method Repurposed bid landscape model to approximate propensity scores, enabling robust OPE estimators.
result Remarkable alignment with online A/B test results, achieving 92% MDA in CTR prediction.

This paper studies semiparametric contextual bandits, a generalization of the linear stochastic bandit problem where the reward for an action is modeled as a linear function of known action features confounded by an non-linear action-independent term. We design new algorithms that achieve O~(dT)\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{T}) regret …

2018-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

The study reveals the efficiency of sampling from tilted distributions.

problem Sampling from a tilted distribution of an unknown underlying distribution.
method Self-normalized importance sampling to characterize accuracy.
result Polynomial vs super-polynomial sample complexity for bounded vs unbounded distributions.

New inequalities for matrix supermartingales converge under various conditions.

problem Convergence and maximal inequalities of supermartingales in positive semidefinite matrices.
method Developed new concentration inequalities for matrix supermartingales.
result New inequalities for matrix supermartingales under different tail conditions.

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without external inputs. The objective is to recover the system parameters as well as the Kalm…

2019-03-21abs ↗pdf ↗