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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for selection rules

Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.

problem Challenges of handling asymmetric selection mechanisms in online selective conformal prediction.
method PEMI: permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules.
result Achieves exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model.

The paper proves generalization bounds and stopping rules for self-selected data in reciprocal learning.

problem Generalization of learning algorithms using self-selected data.
method Proves universal generalization bounds using covering numbers and Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result Provides stopping rules for reciprocal learning algorithms to ensure out-of-sample performance.

A new model shows fairness mechanisms can improve selection utility even without implicit bias.

problem Improving selection fairness without introducing a utility trade-off.
method A model with latent quality and group-dependent variance, comparing fairness mechanisms to group-oblivious selection.
result Demographic parity always increases selection utility, while γγ-rules weakly increase it.

Abstraction and realization are bilateral processes that are key in deriving intelligence and creativity. In many domains, the two processes are approached through rules: high-level principles that reveal invariances within similar yet diverse examples. Under a probabilistic setting for discrete input spaces, we focus …

2017-09-06abs ↗pdf ↗

New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.

problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.

Coordinate descent methods employ random partial updates of decision variables in order to solve huge-scale convex optimization problems. In this work, we introduce new adaptive rules for the random selection of their updates. By adaptive, we mean that our selection rules are based on the dual residual or the primal-du…

2017-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…

2017-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.

problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.

Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such mo…

2019-05-01abs ↗pdf ↗

CRL approach improves understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
method Causal rule learning (CRL) workflow consisting of rule discovery, selection, and analysis.
result CRL outperforms other methods in providing interpretable estimates of HTE.

Time series forecasting models fail to consistently select the best model across different datasets.

problem Inconsistency in model selection for time series forecasting across varying data regimes.
method Characterized time series using descriptors like trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Developed a rule-based selection mechanism to map data regimes to candidate models.
result Rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases.

We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from these alternative selection criteria are superior not only in forecasting directio…

2014-03-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes sparse local and regional counterfactual rules for robust recourses.

problem Challenges in counterfactual explanations, especially stability, synthesis, and implementation.
method Probabilistic framework using Random Forest to derive sparse local and regional counterfactual rules.
result Effective recourses derived from high-density regions, providing sparse and robust counterfactual rules.

Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.

problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.

This paper improves fraud prevention rule sets in fintech by generating diverse rules and finding Pareto-optimal subsets.

problem Improving the quality and flexibility of fraud prevention rule sets in fintech.
method Introducing SpectralRules for generating diverse rules, and PORS for finding Pareto-optimal subsets.
result SpectralRules generates diverse rules that improve the quality of final rule subsets.

New methods optimize experiment selection for sequential data, improving model accuracy.

problem Optimizing experiment selection for sequential data in multidimensional cases.
method Adopting greedy experiment selection methods for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proposed methods produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.

Model selection for time series forecasting can be biased by the distribution of scores.

problem Model selection for probabilistic forecasting on time series data.
method Using proper scoring rules to aggregate scores across multiple time series.
result The mean score is immune to the skewness of the score distribution.

The paper addresses selection bias in conformal prediction for focal units.

problem Selection bias in marginally valid conformal prediction intervals for focal units.
method A general framework for constructing selection-conditional coverage prediction sets.
result Efficient methods for various selection rules with exact finite-sample coverage.

The study evaluates different parameter selection methods for Gaussian process interpolation.

problem Choosing optimal parameters for Gaussian process interpolation.
method Empirical study using scoring rules and leave-one-out selection criteria.
result The choice of model family is often more important than the selection criterion.

Optimal allocation of human effort to correct AI assessments in decision-making.

problem How to allocate costly human effort to correct noisy or biased AI-generated assessments.
method Decision-theoretic framework treating AI assessments as signals and human judgments as costly information. Developed estimation procedures under nonparametric and linear models.
result Our approach substantially outperforms LLM-only predictions and achieves performance comparable to full human review while using only 20-30% of the human information.

Flexible Cox model for time-dependent covariates with complex sparsity patterns.

problem Lack of flexibility in enforcing specific sparsity patterns in time-dependent Cox models.
method Proposes a flexible framework for variable selection in time-dependent Cox models, accommodating complex selection rules.
result Achieves accurate estimation with low false alarm rates for complex covariate structures.

Estimates funding impact from an algorithmic relief rule, finding little effect on hospital activities.

problem Evaluating the impact of algorithmic policy decisions.
method Developed a treatment-effect estimator using algorithmic decisions as instruments.
result Funding from an algorithmic relief rule had little effect on COVID-19-related hospital activities.

A new ensemble method improves kNN performance by extending the neighborhood rule.

problem Traditional kNN's limitations when test points are outside the spherical region and ensemble's high errors.
method Determines neighbors in k steps, using bootstrap samples and optimal models selection.
result The proposed ensemble method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on 17 benchmark datasets.

New method improves IV estimation with many weak and invalid instruments.

problem Identification in linear IV models with unknown validity.
method Non-convex penalized approaches, surrogate sparsest penalty.
result Advantages over other IV estimators in selection consistency and weak IV strength conditions.

WiGS improves active learning for regression by dynamically selecting informative samples.

problem Reducing labeling costs in regression tasks.
method Formulated as a reinforcement learning problem, WiGS adapts the exploration-investigation balance.
result WiGS outperforms static methods in accuracy and labeling efficiency, especially in irregular data density.

Coordinate descent with random coordinate selection is the current state of the art for many large scale optimization problems. However, greedy selection of the steepest coordinate on smooth problems can yield convergence rates independent of the dimension nn, and requiring upto nn times fewer iterations. In this pap…

2018-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.

We consider the problem of learning a sparse rule model, a prediction model in the form of a sparse linear combination of rules, where a rule is an indicator function defined over a hyper-rectangle in the input space. Since the number of all possible such rules is extremely large, it has been computationally intractabl…

2018-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Safe screening rules reduce 0\ell_0-regression computation by fixing 76% of variables.

problem Efficiently solving 0\ell_0-regression problems with large datasets.
method Convex relaxation and safe screening rules to eliminate variables.
result 76% of variables can be fixed to their optimal values, reducing computational burden.

One of the key elements in the banking industry rely on the appropriate selection of customers. In order to manage credit risk, banks dedicate special efforts in order to classify customers according to their risk. The usual decision making process consists in gathering personal and financial information about the borr…

2017-04-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A new principle for optimizer selection improves training speed and performance.

problem Finding the best optimizer hyperparameters for faster training.
method Formulate optimizer selection as maximizing the expected drop rate in loss, treating gradients and updates as signals and an optimizer as a causal filter.
result Greedy optimizer selection yields stable and effective momentum rules.

Here, we study different update rules in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for online forecasting problems. The selection of the learning rate parameter is critical in SGD. However, it may not be feasible to tune this parameter in online learning. Therefore, it is necessary to have an update rule that is not sensitive …

2019-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗