A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper develops a method for inferring second opinions from experts using counterfactual inference.
The issue of disagreements amongst human experts is a ubiquitous one in both machine learning and medicine. In medicine, this often corresponds to doctor disagreements on a patient diagnosis. In this work, we show that machine learning models can be trained to give uncertainty scores to data instances that might result…
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature an…
The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users ove…
This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial…
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are bounded…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.
A new method combines experts' opinions to train regression models with noisy labels.
Online reviews have become a vital source of information in purchasing a service (product). Opinion spammers manipulate reviews, affecting the overall perception of the service. A key challenge in detecting opinion spam is obtaining ground truth. Though there exists a large set of reviews online, only a few of them hav…
The paper explains a geometry puzzle from Plato's Meno.
SINN combines social science and deep learning for predicting opinion dynamics.
Well-defined formal definitions for sentiment and opinion are extended to incorporate the necessary elements to provide a formal quantitative definition of reputation. This definition takes the form of a time-based index, in which each element is a function of a collection of opinions mined during a given time period. …
Study shows social reinforcement learning can lead to persistent but metastable polarization.
Few summaries enable automatic summarization of product reviews.
We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market, consisting of three particles, which represent the current price of the stock and the opinion of the buyers, respectively sellers, about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respec…
The article describes our submission to SemEval 2019 Task 8 on Fact-Checking in Community Forums. The systems under discussion participated in Subtask A: decide whether a question asks for factual information, opinion/advice or is just socializing. Our primary submission was ranked as the second one among all participa…
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the value of a stock. The model presented in this paper is suited for pricing of options…
Modeling financial market dynamics with noise and fundamentalist agents.
The proliferation of fake news and filter bubbles makes it increasingly difficult to form an unbiased, balanced opinion towards a topic. To ameliorate this, we propose 360° Stance Detection, a tool that aggregates news with multiple perspectives on a topic. It presents them on a spectrum ranging from support to opposit…
Financial statements contain quantitative information and manager's subjective evaluation of firm's financial status. Using information released in U.S. 10-K filings. Both qualitative and quantitative appraisals are crucial for quality financial decisions. To extract such opinioned statements from the reports, we built…
Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting ou…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
Motivated by Supervised Opinion Analysis, we propose a novel framework devoted to Structured Output Learning with Abstention (SOLA). The structure prediction model is able to abstain from predicting some labels in the structured output at a cost chosen by the user in a flexible way. For that purpose, we decompose the p…
An increasing number of people are using online social networking services (SNSs), and a significant amount of information related to experiences in consumption is shared in this new media form. Text mining is an emerging technique for mining useful information from the web. We aim at discovering in particular tweets s…
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
We propose a method to infer lead-lag networks of traders from the observation of their trade record as well as to reconstruct their state of supply and demand when they do not trade. The method relies on the Kinetic Ising model to describe how information propagates among traders, assigning a positive or negative "opi…
We propose a stochastic map model of economic dynamics. In the last decade, an array of observations in economics has been investigated in the econophysics literature, a major example being the universal features of inequality in terms of income and wealth. Another area of inquiry is the formation of opinion in a socie…
A new platform models how narratives influence financial markets.
This work uses variational inference to estimate parameters of opinion dynamics models.
Bayesian model fuses multiple classifiers with explicit correlation modeling.
To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this paper we suggest a new …
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
Despite the high interest for Machine Learning (ML) in academia and industry, many issues related to the application of ML to real-life problems are yet to be addressed. Here we put forward one limitation which arises from a lack of adaptation of ML models and datasets to specific applications. We formalise a new notio…
We proposed the agent-based model of financial markets where agents (or traders) are represented by three-state spins located on the plane lattice or social network. The spin variable represents only the individual opinion (advice) that each trader gives to his nearest neighbors. In the model the agents can be consider…
An important part of the information gathering and data analysis is to find out what people think about, either a product or an entity. Twitter is an opinion rich social networking site. The posts or tweets from this data can be used for mining people's opinions. The recent surge of activity in this area can be attribu…
Opinion summarization is the task of automatically creating summaries that reflect subjective information expressed in multiple documents, such as product reviews. While the majority of previous work has focused on the extractive setting, i.e., selecting fragments from input reviews to produce a summary, we let the mod…
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
Automated sentiment analysis and opinion mining is a complex process concerning the extraction of useful subjective information from text. The explosion of user generated content on the Web, especially the fact that millions of users, on a daily basis, express their opinions on products and services to blogs, wikis, so…
This paper presents a novel CNN-based approach for synthesizing high-resolution LiDAR point cloud data. Our approach generates semantically and perceptually realistic results with guidance from specialized loss-functions. First, we utilize a modified per-point loss that addresses missing LiDAR point measurements. Secon…
We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by match…
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.