Proposes a method to simulate data for testing credit risk scorecard stability.
problem Ensuring credit risk scorecards remain representative of the population over time.
method Specification of bad ratios to generate parameter values for scorecards.
result Simulated data adheres closely to specified bad ratios.
The paper tackles sampling bias in credit scoring models and proposes methods to improve their training and evaluation.
problem Sampling bias in credit scoring models leads to an incomplete representation of the borrower population.
method Bias-aware self-learning framework and Bayesian evaluation method to correct for bias.
result Bayesian evaluation outperforms standard accuracy measures in predicting future performance.
A new method combines federated learning and logistic regression for better credit scoring.
problem Improving credit scoring models while protecting data privacy.
method Projected gradient-based vertical federated learning (FL-LRBC) for logistic regression.
result Significant improvement in AUC and KS statistics due to data enrichment.
The paper explores fairness in credit scoring using machine learning.
problem The lack of research on fair machine learning in credit scoring.
method Revisits statistical fairness criteria, catalogs algorithmic options, and empirically compares fairness processors.
result Multiple fairness criteria can be approximately satisfied at once, and fair processors deliver a good balance between profit and fairness.
This paper aims to present a general idea of method comparison of Credit Scoring techniques. Any scorecard can be made in various methods based on variable transformations in the logistic regression model. To make a comparison and come up with the proof that one technique is better than another is a big challenge due t…
In this pedagogical study, carried out by adopting standard mathematical methods of nonlinear dynamics, we have presented some simple analytical models to understand terminal behaviour in industrial growth. This issue has also been addressed from a dynamical systems perspective, with especial emphasis on the concept of…
We describe a method to identify poor households in data-scarce countries by leveraging information contained in nationally representative household surveys. It employs standard statistical learning techniques---cross-validation and parameter regularization---which together reduce the extent to which the model is over-…
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.
LOT improves optimal transport for large datasets.
problem Efficient optimal transport for large datasets.
method Low-rank optimal transport (LOT) restricts search to low-nonnegative rank couplings.
result LOT complements and improves upon entropic regularization.
Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks affect sovereign risk differently, with distinct transmission channels.
problem Understanding how geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks impact sovereign credit risk.
method Daily panel data of 42 economies over 2018-2025; semistructural framework; Shapley-Taylor decomposition; machine learning predictions; placebo and sign-restricted SVAR evidence.
result Geopolitical shocks primarily increase sovereign credit spreads through direct repricing, while geoeconomic shocks mainly affect spreads through financial conditions and policy uncertainty.
Study reveals which startup valuation factors are most critical.
problem Understanding the complex factors influencing startup valuations.
method Hierarchical prediction models using decision trees and random forests.
result Identifies which factors most significantly impact startup valuations.
Unified framework connects credit risk metrics with information theory.
problem Disconnection between industry-standard metrics and statistical theory.
method Unified information-theoretic framework, proving IV equals PSI, deriving standard errors, formalizing trade-off, automated binning with XGBoost.
result Unified framework connects IV and PSI, providing statistical foundation for metrics.
Big data from phone calls improves credit scoring models and profits.
problem Improving credit scoring models to enhance financial inclusion.
method Combining call-detail records and traditional data to build scorecards using social network analytics.
result Combining call-detail records with traditional data significantly increases model performance and profit.
New framework explains ML credit scoring models using counterfactual examples.
problem Explaining complex ML models in finance for credit scoring.
method Adversarial counterfactual examples for tabular data.
result Proposes a method to generate realistic counterfactual examples for tabular data.
CLQT benchmarks LLM portfolio managers by evaluating their decision-making process, not just returns.
problem Most benchmarks rank LLMs by returns, ignoring their decision-making process and potential for look-ahead leakage.
method CLQT reframes evaluation as diagnosis, using a closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent environment with a five-stage cycle.
result CLQT provides a durable map of agent competencies and limitations, separating outcome from process.