Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Comparison of scoring rules (CRPS, fair global energy score, graph energy score) and analysis of their impact on forecast field spectra.
result Scale-awareness improves forecast realism, particularly in the tropics.
Study compares multivariate scoring rules for distribution forecasts.
problem Evaluating the discrimination ability of multivariate scoring rules.
method Simulation study comparing energy and variogram scores using historical data.
result Variogram score with p=0.5 outperforms other scores.
Prior-weighted logistic regression has become a standard tool for calibration in speaker recognition. Logistic regression is the optimization of the expected value of the logarithmic scoring rule. We generalize this via a parametric family of proper scoring rules. Our theoretical analysis shows how different members of…
In this paper we show that reporting a single performance score is insufficient to compare non-deterministic approaches. We demonstrate for common sequence tagging tasks that the seed value for the random number generator can result in statistically significant (p < 10^-4) differences for state-of-the-art systems. For …
Standardized fairness measures for continuous risk scores using Wasserstein distance.
problem Quantifying and interpreting group disparities in continuous risk scores.
method Proposes standardized fairness measures based on Wasserstein distance for continuous scores.
result Proposed measures outperform ROC-based fairness measures by being more explicit and quantifying significant biases.
Cost-effective method detects language model hallucinations.
problem Detecting unreliable outputs from LLMs.
method Pipeline including confidence score, input attributes calibration, and thresholding.
result Multi-scoring framework outperforms individual methods and reduces computational cost.
In this work, we addressed the issue of combining linear classifiers using their score functions. The value of the scoring function depends on the distance from the decision boundary. Two score functions have been tested and four different combination strategies were investigated. During the experimental study, the pro…
A new score SiNNE improves OAM efficiency and accuracy.
problem Comparing outlier scores across subspaces of different dimensions.
method Introducing SiNNE, a new score independent of subspace dimensionality.
result SiNNE produces better or at least as good results as existing scores and significantly improves runtime.
A new method optimizes anomaly scoring from score distribution to improve AD performance.
problem Vulnerability to anomaly contamination and lack of adaptability in existing AD methods.
method Optimizes anomaly scoring function from score distribution perspective, using Overlap loss.
result Overlap loss-based AD models significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes a method to measure similarity between anomaly scores from different methods.
problem Difficulty in directly comparing anomaly detection methods.
method A measure based on extremal similarity in scoring distributions using a novel upper quadrant modeling approach.
result Demonstrates the ability to detect clusters of anomaly detection algorithms and achieve an accurate ensemble algorithm.
Most multi-class classifiers make their prediction for a test sample by scoring the classes and selecting the one with the highest score. Analyzing these prediction scores is useful to understand the classifier behavior and to assess its reliability. We present an interactive visualization that facilitates per-class an…
MAS scores cluster size consistency from points, robust to label changes.
problem Desired uniformity in cluster sizes, stability under label perturbations.
method Mass Agreement Score (MAS) measures point-centric cluster size consistency, robust to label changes.
result MAS yields similar scores for partitions with similar bulk structure, sensitive to genuine redistribution of cluster mass.
The most important part of model selection and hyperparameter tuning is the evaluation of model performance. The most popular measures, such as AUC, F1, ACC for binary classification, or RMSE, MAD for regression, or cross-entropy for multilabel classification share two common weaknesses. First is, that they are not on …
This paper explores how to choose scoring rules for estimating properties with parametric assumptions.
problem Indirect elicitation of properties with parametric assumptions.
method Developed a framework for choosing proper scoring rules for indirect elicitation, considering constraints and optimal solutions.
result The optimal estimation of the target property changes monotonically with the increase of each weight, and often setting some weights as zero yields the best configuration.
We study strictly proper scoring rules in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. We propose a general Kernel Scoring rule and associated Kernel Divergence. We consider conditions under which the Kernel Score is strictly proper. We then demonstrate that the Kernel Score includes the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as a special …
We present a new method for computing ASR word confidences that effectively mitigates the effect of ASR errors for diverse downstream applications, improves the word error rate of the 1-best result, and allows better comparison of scores across different models. We propose 1) a new method for modeling word confidence u…
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
problem Fairness of risk score models in communicating uncertainty.
method Identified key fairness desiderata, developed metrics for quantitative assessment, and applied methodology in two case studies.
result Introduced a novel calibration error metric for meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes.
The present study proposes a deep learning model, named DeepSleepNet, for automatic sleep stage scoring based on raw single-channel EEG. Most of the existing methods rely on hand-engineered features which require prior knowledge of sleep analysis. Only a few of them encode the temporal information such as transition ru…
Proposes a new Bayesian score for learning network structure from related datasets.
problem Learning network structure from heterogeneous related data sets.
method Bayesian Hierarchical Dirichlet (BHD) score based on a hierarchical model.
result BHD outperforms BDeu in reconstruction accuracy and sparsity for related datasets.
Improved credit scoring model with explainability.
problem Making financial decisions based on loan applications.
method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with 360-degree explanation framework.
result Model achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides understandable explanations.
New scoring rules for multivariate distributions and level sets.
problem Evaluating forecast accuracy for multivariate distributions and level sets.
method Theoretical framework for scoring rules, decomposition of multivariate scoring functions, numerical algorithm for computation.
result New scoring functions for multivariate distributions and level sets, including density and cumulative distribution level sets.
New ESGM scores include a 'Missing' pillar to account for unpublished ESG data.
problem Unpublished ESG data affects the reliability of ESG scores.
method Formulated a new 'Missing' pillar and introduced ESGM scores.
result ESGM scores improve risk assessment and avoid exclusion of assets.
The study proposes a framework to accept OOD data based on competence scores.
problem Silent failures in Domain Generalization where models reject OOD data without proper justification.
method A learning to reject framework using proxy incompetence scores to predict trustworthiness.
result Increasing incompetence scores are predictive of reduced accuracy, but not always favorable for accuracy/rejection trade-off.
Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities output by the model map to the observed probabilities). In this study we cover the cu…
Unified view of score estimators for flexible densities.
problem Estimating the score from unknown distributions.
method Regularized nonparametric regression framework.
result Unified convergence analysis and new estimators with desirable properties.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
New method for generating images with conditional probability models.
problem Generating images with specific conditions.
method Score-based diffusion models with theoretical analysis and new estimator.
result New estimator for conditional score performs similarly to state-of-the-art.
Score matching method improves image generation quality.
problem Score matching method underperforms GANs in metrics like Fréchet Inception Distance.
method DSM-ALS with denoising and improved sampling techniques.
result Score matching methods can match GANs in image generation quality.
We introduce SADs to reveal how network architecture shapes score-based generative models.
problem Understanding and predicting the inductive biases of score-based generative models.
method Introducing Score Anisotropy Directions (SADs) to analyze network architecture.
result SADs reliably capture model behavior and correlate with performance.
Framework uses diffusion models to infer material properties from noisy mechanical measurements.
problem Inference of spatially varying material properties from noisy mechanical responses.
method Conditional score-based diffusion models approximating the score function of a conditional distribution.
result Framework can efficiently solve large-scale physics-based inverse problems.
Deconfounding scores improve causal effect estimation with weak overlap.
problem Challenges in causal treatment effect estimation due to weak overlap in high-dimensional data.
method Propose deconfounding scores to preserve identification and target estimation while improving overlap.
result Prognostic scores are overlap-optimal under a broad family of generalized linear models with Gaussian features.
Prognostic scores improve logistic regression analysis in RCTs with binary outcomes.
problem Non-collapsibility in logistic regression analysis of RCTs with binary endpoints.
method Prognostic score adjustment using AI predictions to address non-collapsibility.
result Prognostic score adjustment increases power or reduces sample size for estimating conditional odds ratios.
SciRE-Solver accelerates DMs sampling by recursively calculating the score function derivative.
problem Slow iterative process of diffusion models due to estimating the score function derivative.
method Recursive Difference (RD) method combined with truncated Taylor expansion of score-integrand.
result SciRE-Solver achieves state-of-the-art FIDs with significantly fewer score function evaluations.
Identifying customer segments in retail banking portfolios with different risk profiles can improve the accuracy of credit scoring. The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) has shown promising results in different research domains, and it has been documented the powerful information embedded in the latent space of the VAE. We…
We address the problem of learning vector representations for entities and relations in Knowledge Graphs (KGs) for Knowledge Base Completion (KBC). This problem has received significant attention in the past few years and multiple methods have been proposed. Most of the existing methods in the literature use a predefin…
New metric scores perturbations across populations, not cells, improving model comparison.
problem Single-cell perturbation data overlaps, making per-cell accuracy unreliable.
method Average per-cell probability vectors over all cells of a perturbation to form a population profile and rank candidate perturbations.
result Classifier Discrimination Score (CDS) identifies true perturbation more reliably than pseudobulk-based scores.
Paper proposes a method to reduce hallucinations in diffusion models using Laplacian score sharpening.
problem Hallucinations in diffusion models create incoherent or unrealistic samples.
method Post-hoc adjustment to the score function during inference using Laplacian approximation.
result Significantly reduces the rate of hallucinated samples across various data types.
Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's z score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that z score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional z score that can improve the predicti…
Improved image compression with diffusion models outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
problem Difficulties in replicating text-to-image success in image compression.
method Two-stage approach combining autoencoder targeting MSE followed by score-based decoder.
result Significantly improved perceptual quality at a given bit-rate, measured by FID score.
Paper tackles transparency and auditability of machine learning in credit scoring.
problem Missed potential in using modern machine learning for credit scoring due to lack of transparency.
method Develops a framework for making black box machine learning models transparent, auditable, and explainable.
result Comparable interpretability can be achieved with machine learning while maintaining predictive power.
To address Task 5 in the Detection and Classification of Acoustic Scenes and Events (DCASE) 2018 challenge, in this paper, we propose an ensemble learning system. The proposed system consists of three different models, based on convolutional neural network and long short memory recurrent neural network. With extracted …
A network may have weak signals and severe degree heterogeneity, and may be very sparse in one occurrence but very dense in another. SCORE (Jin, 2015) is a recent approach to network community detection. It accommodates severe degree heterogeneity and is adaptive to different levels of sparsity, but its performance for…
Human decision-makers often receive assistance from data-driven algorithmic systems that provide a score for evaluating objects, including individuals. The scores are generated by a function (mechanism) that takes a set of features as input and generates a score.The scoring functions are either machine-learned or human…
New bounds close the score matching gap for diffusion models.
problem The difference between sample quality and score matching loss in diffusion models.
method Theoretical analysis of score matching gap, developing tighter bounds for KL divergence, reverse KL divergence, and Wasserstein distance.
result The quality of score approximation impacts closing the score matching gap for low noise scales.
A new flow optimizes synthetic data alignment for generative modeling.
problem Optimizing synthetic data to match target distributions.
method Score difference (SD) flow to reduce KL divergence.
result SD flow provides a theoretical link between generative models.
Theory explains creativity in diffusion models generating novel images.
problem Diffusion models generate highly original images far from training data.
method Identified locality and equivariance as inductive biases to prevent optimal score-matching.
result Analytic models predict diffusion model outputs with high accuracy.
Model selection for time series forecasting can be biased by the distribution of scores.
problem Model selection for probabilistic forecasting on time series data.
method Using proper scoring rules to aggregate scores across multiple time series.
result The mean score is immune to the skewness of the score distribution.
Efficiently approximates higher-order derivatives for generative models.
problem Expensive computation of higher-order derivatives in generative models.
method Rewrite SM objective in terms of directional derivatives and use finite difference for efficient approximation.
result Comparable results to gradient-based methods but significantly more computationally efficient.