A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study explores rumor spread on Twitter using supervised learning.
With the pervasiveness of online media data as a source of information verifying the validity of this information is becoming even more important yet quite challenging. Rumors spread a large quantity of misinformation on microblogs. In this study we address two common issues within the context of microblog social media…
Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we inv…
We provide a systematic study of the problem of finding the source of a rumor in a network. We model rumor spreading in a network with a variant of the popular SIR model and then construct an estimator for the rumor source. This estimator is based upon a novel topological quantity which we term \textbf{rumor centrality…
Deep learning ensemble detects social media rumors faster.
The prevalence of social media has made information sharing possible across the globe. The downside, unfortunately, is the wide spread of misinformation. Methods applied in most previous rumor classifiers give an equal weight, or attention, to words in the microblog, and do not take the context beyond microblog content…
Speech Acts (SAs) are one of the important areas of pragmatics, which give us a better understanding of the state of mind of the people and convey an intended language function. Knowledge of the SA of a text can be helpful in analyzing that text in natural language processing applications. This study presents a diction…
New algorithm estimates past and future diffusion processes on networks.
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an…
Structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely adopted for inference of causal interactions in complex networks. Recent examples include unveiling topologies of hidden causal networks over which processes such as spreading diseases, or rumors propagate. The appeal of SEMs in these settings stems from their simplici…
CovidSens uses social media to track COVID-19 spread.
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
A susceptibility propagation that is constructed by combining a belief propagation and a linear response method is used for approximate computation for Markov random fields. Herein, we formulate a new, improved susceptibility propagation by using the concept of a diagonal matching method that is based on mean-field app…
The viral spread of fake news has caused great social harm, making fake news detection an urgent task. Current fake news detection methods rely heavily on text information by learning the extracted news content or writing style of internal knowledge. However, deliberate rumors can mask writing style, bypassing language…
We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a …
Variational inference is a powerful concept that underlies many iterative approximation algorithms; expectation propagation, mean-field methods and belief propagations were all central themes at the school that can be perceived from this unifying framework. The lectures of Manfred Opper introduce the archetypal example…
This paper proposes an alternating back-propagation algorithm for learning the generator network model. The model is a non-linear generalization of factor analysis. In this model, the mapping from the continuous latent factors to the observed signal is parametrized by a convolutional neural network. The alternating bac…
Study reveals decurve flows in graph propagation models.
Unified model combines feature and label propagation for semi-supervised classification.
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
Stock trend prediction plays a critical role in seeking maximized profit from stock investment. However, precise trend prediction is very difficult since the highly volatile and non-stationary nature of stock market. Exploding information on Internet together with advancing development of natural language processing an…
A new approach estimates propagators for trading risky assets.
Botnet, a group of coordinated bots, is becoming the main platform of malicious Internet activities like DDOS, click fraud, web scraping, spam/rumor distribution, etc. This paper focuses on design and experiment of a new approach for botnet detection from streaming web server logs, motivated by its wide applicability, …
This thesis investigates belief propagation's performance in graphical models with loops.
LNPE enhances local connections in embeddings using extended neighbor propagation.
Decoupled GCN is shown to be equivalent to label propagation.
The back-propagation algorithm is the cornerstone of deep learning. Despite its importance, few variations of the algorithm have been attempted. This work presents an approach to discover new variations of the back-propagation equation. We use a domain specific lan- guage to describe update equations as a list of primi…
Gringotts Wizarding Bank is well known as the only financial institution in all of the Wizarding UK as documented in the works recounting the heroics of Harry Potter. The concentration of power and wealth in this single bank needs to be weighed against the financial stability of the entire Wizarding economy. This study…
A new method for target propagation using iterative approximations converges fast and is more biologically plausible.
Belief Propagation algorithms are instruments used broadly to solve graphical model optimization and statistical inference problems. In the general case of a loopy Graphical Model, Belief Propagation is a heuristic which is quite successful in practice, even though its empirical success, typically, lacks theoretical gu…
Global propagator for massless Dirac operator defined and analyzed.
Many real-world graphs or networks are temporal, e.g., in a social network persons only interact at specific points in time. This information directs dissemination processes on the network, such as the spread of rumors, fake news, or diseases. However, the current state-of-the-art methods for supervised graph classific…
The article constructs Feynman propagators for normally hyperbolic operators on curved spacetimes.
The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
We introduce propagation kernels, a general graph-kernel framework for efficiently measuring the similarity of structured data. Propagation kernels are based on monitoring how information spreads through a set of given graphs. They leverage early-stage distributions from propagation schemes such as random walks to capt…
Inspired by recent interests of developing machine learning and data mining algorithms on hypergraphs, we investigate in this paper the semi-supervised learning algorithm of propagating "soft labels" (e.g. probability distributions, class membership scores) over hypergraphs, by means of optimal transportation. Borrowin…
Fan tokens surged before World Cup matches, but declined during them, revealing cognitive biases.
New method identifies diffusion sources on networks with statistical confidence.
Human decision making by professionals trading daily in the stock market can be a daunting task. It includes decisions on whether to keep on investing or to exit a market subject to huge price swings, and how to price in news or rumors attributed to a specific stock. The question then arises how professional traders, w…
SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of the DebtRank algorithm, recently introduced in the literature. The mechanics of di…
New -BP algorithm improves belief propagation for graphs with loops.
New group testing method uses Belief Propagation for accurate screening.
Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is actually minimization of a localized -divergence. We term this algorithm as $α…
We discuss positivity properties of `distinguished propagators', i.e. distinguished inverses of operators that frequently occur in scattering theory and wave propagation. We relate this to the work of Duistermaat and Hörmander on distinguished parametrices (approximate inverses), which has played a major role in quantu…
Study shows uniform-time chaos propagation in mean field Langevin dynamics.
As one of the most important types of (weaker) supervised information in machine learning and pattern recognition, pairwise constraint, which specifies whether a pair of data points occur together, has recently received significant attention, especially the problem of pairwise constraint propagation. At least two reaso…