The paper proposes a method to identify root causes of anomalies in time series data.
problem Challenges in identifying the root cause of anomalies in complex software systems.
method Analyzes time series fluctuations to track the propagation of effects through hidden states.
result Identifies causal patterns among observed fluctuations to isolate root causes.
CROC identifies the earliest-changing stream as the root cause in multi-stream data.
problem Distribution-free root cause analysis in multi-stream data with unknown distributional changes.
method Conformal p-values and finite-sample valid confidence sets.
result CROC efficiently isolates the root cause under minimal assumptions.
RAID algorithm detects anomalies in real-time IoT systems.
problem Anomaly detection limitations in multivariate dynamic processes.
method Adapts to non-stationary effects and handles data drift.
result Improved detection accuracy and root cause isolation.
Method identifies root causes of anomalies in causal processes.
problem Identifying root causes of anomalies in causal processes.
method Noisy functional causal model, Bayesian learning, gradient-based attribution.
result Proposes efficient method to compute anomaly attribution scores.
Identifies root causes of outliers in unknown cyclic graphs.
problem Outliers in unknown cyclic graphs with linear structural equations.
method Identifies a short list of potential root causes based on strong perturbation and structural equations.
result The shortlist includes true root causes and their parents on the cycle.
New definition of patient-specific root causes of disease using counterfactuals.
problem Lack of rigorous mathematical formulation for automatic detection of root causes.
method Proposes a counterfactual definition matching clinical intuition and uses Shapley values for causal contribution scores.
result Adapts to disease prevalence, accounts for noisy labels, and admits fast computation.
New model identifies patient-specific disease root causes.
problem Identifying root causes of complex diseases varying between patients.
method Generalized Root Causal Inference (GRCI) algorithm for heteroscedastic noise model.
result GRCI accurately extracts patient-specific root causes.
This paper presents a new insight into improving the performance of Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE) by using Isolation kernel instead of Gaussian kernel. Isolation kernel outperforms Gaussian kernel in two aspects. First, the use of Isolation kernel in t-SNE overcomes the drawback of misrepresenting some structu…
Identifies patient-specific root causes of disease using structural equation models.
problem Detecting significant variables in complex diseases that differ between patients.
method Defining patient-specific root causes as exogenous errors in a structural equation model, quantifying predictivity using Shapley values, and developing a fast algorithm called Root Causal Inference.
result Significant improvements in accuracy by uncovering root causes with large effect sizes at the individual level but clinically insignificant effect sizes at the group level.
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
Polynomials' roots count tied to surface umbilics.
problem Relating roots of polynomials to umbilics on surfaces.
method Constructing a convex surface from a polynomial, determining umbilic index, and applying Hamburger's bound.
result Bounding the number of roots inside the unit circle for polynomials with self-inversive second derivatives.
New method identifies root causes in presence of latent confounding.
problem Identifying root causes in the presence of latent variables.
method Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) procedure for inferring root causes.
result Superior accuracy and robustness compared to previous methods.
Paper tackles anomaly detection with missing causal knowledge.
problem Detect anomalies with missing structural knowledge.
method Simple, efficient methods for polytree causal graphs.
result Heuristic identifies root causes based on anomaly scores.
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
Performance monitoring, anomaly detection, and root-cause analysis in complex cyber-physical systems (CPSs) are often highly intractable due to widely diverse operational modes, disparate data types, and complex fault propagation mechanisms. This paper presents a new data-driven framework for root-cause analysis, based…
Paper adapts causal analysis for time-dependent systems, especially energy management.
problem Challenges in root-cause analysis for systems with lagged time-dependencies, particularly in energy management.
method Adapts causal root-cause analysis method to time-dependent systems, discusses two truncation approaches.
result Extension effectively localizes root-causes in feature and time domain with enough lags.
Enhanced Extended Isolation Forest (EIF+) improves anomaly detection and provides interpretable explanations.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex datasets and explaining model predictions.
method Extended Isolation Forest (EIF) and Extended Isolation Forest Feature Importance (ExIFFI) methods.
result EIF+ outperforms EIF in detecting unseen anomalies and provides better generalization.
Paper tackles anomaly detection and RCA in dynamical systems using ICODE Networks.
problem Anomalies in dynamical systems impact performance and reliability.
method Proposes ICODE Networks for anomaly detection, RCA, and type classification.
result Demonstrates the ability to accurately detect anomalies, classify types, and pinpoint origins.
CD-RCA method identifies causal relationships in prediction errors without predefined graphs.
problem Challenges in diagnosing prediction errors due to lack of transparency in black-box models.
method Causal-Discovery-based Root-Cause Analysis (CD-RCA) method that estimates causal relationships without predefined causal graphs.
result CD-RCA outperforms heuristic attribution methods in identifying variable contributions to prediction errors.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are shown to be promising solutions in many challenging artificial intelligence tasks. However, it is very hard to figure out whether the low precision of a DNN model is an inevitable result, or caused by defects. This paper aims at addressing this challenging problem. We find that the inter…
Root cause analysis in a large-scale production environment is challenging due to the complexity of services running across global data centers. Due to the distributed nature of a large-scale system, the various hardware, software, and tooling logs are often maintained separately, making it difficult to review the logs…
Root Cause Analysis for Anomalies is challenging because of the trade-off between the accuracy and its explanatory friendliness, required for industrial applications. In this paper we propose a framework for simple and friendly RCA within the Bayesian regime under certain restrictions (that Hessian at the mode is diago…
Unlike traditional programs (such as operating systems or word processors) which have large amounts of code, machine learning tasks use programs with relatively small amounts of code (written in machine learning libraries), but voluminous amounts of data. Just like developers of traditional programs debug errors in the…
NetRCA algorithm locates network faults by analyzing derived features and leveraging unlabeled data.
problem Locating the true root cause of network faults is challenging due to complex architectures and limited labeled data.
method NetRCA algorithm extracts derived features, generates new training data, and combines multiple models to enhance performance.
result NetRCA outperforms existing methods in fault cause localization on real-world data.
New method falsifies causal graphs using outlier events.
problem Inferring causal relationships from data is hard.
method Falsify candidate causal graphs based on outlier propagation.
result Statistical tests control false positives and have power guarantees.
We describe a formal approach to identify 'root causes' of outliers observed in n variables X1,…,Xn in a scenario where the causal relation between the variables is a known directed acyclic graph (DAG). To this end, we first introduce a systematic way to define outlier scores. Further, we introduce the concep…
New approach identifies and explains errors in machine learning pipelines.
problem Challenges in identifying and explaining errors in complex machine learning pipelines.
method Uses iteration and provenance to automatically infer root causes of failures.
result Significantly improves precision and recall compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper proposes a new probability distribution for rooted trees.
problem Overfitting in tree selection for statistical models.
method Bayesian approach with a generalized probability distribution for rooted trees.
result Recursive methods to evaluate the probability distribution without approximations.
Paper tackles RCA in complex networks with unknown interdependencies.
problem Difficult RCA in networked systems due to unknown interdependencies.
method Federated learning for feature-partitioned, nonlinear data without modifying client models.
result Established theoretical convergence guarantees and validated on real-world data.
New method uses mosaics to study wild knots.
problem Classifying wild knots with infinite knotting behavior.
method Extending knot mosaic theory to represent wild knots with isolated wild points.
result Developed a framework for mosaic tangles and mosaic rigid vertex spatial graphs.
We prove that the density of a topologically nontrivial, area-minimizing hypercone with an isolated singularity must be greater than the square root of 2. The Simons' cones show that this is the best possible constant. If one of the components of the complement of the cone has nontrivial kth homotopy group, we prove a …
VEGN uses graph neural networks to predict disease-causing mutations from genetic variants.
problem Identifying disease-causing mutations from millions of genetic variants.
method VEGN employs a graph neural network on a heterogeneous graph of genes and variants, learning gene-gene interactions.
result VEGN outperforms existing state-of-the-art models in variant effect prediction.
NestedVAE isolates common factors from paired images without additional supervision.
problem Reduction of data-driven biases in machine learning models.
method Combines deep latent variable models with information bottleneck theory.
result NestedVAE significantly outperforms alternative methods in various tasks.
Researchers identify knot groups with generalized torsion of order two.
problem Understanding knot groups with specific algebraic properties.
method Analyzing knot groups through generalized torsion, unique root property, and Baumslag-Solitar relations.
result Knot groups with generalized torsion of order two are R-groups and $ar{R}$-groups. Local convolutions bias neural networks towards high-frequency adversarial examples.
problem High-frequency adversarial examples in neural networks.
method Analysis of different linear and nonlinear architectures, focusing on the impact of local convolution operations.
result Local convolutions induce an implicit bias towards high frequency features, leading to high-frequency adversarial examples.
New method differentiates square-root Kalman filters robustly.
problem Gradient calculation issues in square-root Kalman filters.
method Closed-form chain rule derived from Gramian identity, resolves non-orthogonal and rank-deficient issues.
result Robust automatic differentiation for Kalman filters, resolving numerical stability and gradient issues.
Model identifies order splitting and liquidity replenishment as necessary for the square-root law of market impact.
problem Quantifying the square-root law of market impact and identifying its underlying mechanisms.
method Minimal limit-order-book model with heterogeneous interacting agents calibrated against real data. Counterfactual ablation to isolate mechanisms.
result Order splitting and liquidity replenishment are necessary for the square-root law of market impact.
The square root of Fredholm determinants causes numerical instabilities in option pricing models.
problem Numerical instabilities in Fourier-based option pricing for the Volterra Stein-Stein model.
method Characterization of determinant crossing behavior, derivation of transform to handle crossings, efficient algorithms.
result Significant improvement in accuracy and reduction in computational cost for Fourier-based pricing.
In this paper we propose a new method to assist in labeling data arriving from fast running processes using anomaly detection. A result is the possibility to manually classify data arriving at a high rates to train machine learning models. To circumvent the problem of not having a real ground truth we propose specific …
In an effort to better understand the different ways in which the discount factor affects the optimization process in reinforcement learning, we designed a set of experiments to study each effect in isolation. Our analysis reveals that the common perception that poor performance of low discount factors is caused by (to…
We consider the problem of classifying business process instances based on structural features derived from event logs. The main motivation is to provide machine learning based techniques with quick response times for interactive computer assisted root cause analysis. In particular, we create structural features from p…
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
problem Boundary-induced acquisition bias in Gaussian processes.
method Traced root cause to geometric mechanism of kernel truncation at domain boundaries.
result Boundary effects create distortion that worsens with dimensionality, affecting acquisition behavior.
In practice daily volatility of portfolio returns is transformed to longer holding periods by multiplying by the square-root of time which assumes that returns are not serially correlated. Under this assumption this procedure of scaling can also be applied to contributions to volatility of the assets in the portfolio. …
Unified framework for generating data by modeling causal and correlational dependencies.
problem Modeling both causal and correlational dependencies among latent factors.
method Causal-Correlation Variational Autoencoder (C2VAE) framework.
result Improves generation quality, disentanglement, and intervention fidelity.
Although modern portfolio theory has been in existence for over 60 years, fund managers often struggle to get its models to produce reliable portfolio allocations without strongly constraining the decision vector by tight bands of strategic allocation targets. The two main root causes to this problem are inadequate par…
DoWhy-GCM extends causal inference in graphical models for diverse queries.
problem Addressing diverse causal queries in graphical causal models.
method Specify cause-effect relations via a causal graph, fit causal mechanisms, pose causal queries.
result Identification of root causes, attribution of causal influences, diagnosis of causal structures.
We consider predicting the user's head motion in 360-degree videos, with 2 modalities only: the past user's positions and the video content (not knowing other users' traces). We make two main contributions. First, we re-examine existing deep-learning approaches for this problem and identify hidden flaws from a thorough…
Study shows market volatility affects optimal communication design for trading strategies.
problem Investigating how communication impacts trading strategy performance in multi-agent systems.
method 5-agent LLM-based trading systems across 450 experiments spanning 21 months, comparing 5 organizational structures.
result Communication improves performance but depends on market characteristics, with competitive conversation excelling in volatile tech stocks.