A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study optimal reward schemes for inducing desired player performance in risky contests.
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty associated with failure to follow a winning strategy. The Seel & Strack model c…
New framework for contesting algorithmic decisions, not just explaining them.
Models analyze strategic risk-taking in continuous action games.
We introduce a two-player contest for evaluating the safety and robustness of machine learning systems, with a large prize pool. Unlike most prior work in ML robustness, which studies norm-constrained adversaries, we shift our focus to unconstrained adversaries. Defenders submit machine learning models, and try to achi…
We propose a mathematical model of momentum risk-taking, which is essentially real-time risk management focused on short-term volatility of stock markets. Its implementation, our fully automated momentum equity trading system presented systematically, proved to be successful in extensive historical and real-time experi…
Proposes a method for neural networks to learn causal relationships and humans to contest and modify them.
The Wikimedia Foundation has recently observed that newly joining editors on Wikipedia are increasingly failing to integrate into the Wikipedia editors' community, i.e. the community is becoming increasingly harder to penetrate. To sustain healthy growth of the community, the Wikimedia Foundation aims to quantitatively…
In matrix factorization, available graph side-information may not be well suited for the matrix completion problem, having edges that disagree with the latent-feature relations learnt from the incomplete data matrix. We show that removing these edges improves prediction accuracy and scalability. We…
We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions are prone to excess risk-taking.
Dynamic risk constraints help limit risky behavior in financial portfolios.
Recently, sentiment analysis has received a lot of attention due to the interest in mining opinions of social media users. Sentiment analysis consists in determining the polarity of a given text, i.e., its degree of positiveness or negativeness. Traditionally, Sentiment Analysis algorithms have been tailored to a speci…
We introduce a new molecular dataset, named Alchemy, for developing machine learning models useful in chemistry and material science. As of June 20th 2019, the dataset comprises of 12 quantum mechanical properties of 119,487 organic molecules with up to 14 heavy atoms, sampled from the GDB MedChem database. The Alchemy…
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
This paper presents regression models obtained from a process of blind prediction of peptide binding affinity from provided descriptors for several distinct datasets as part of the 2006 Comparative Evaluation of Prediction Algorithms (COEPRA) contest. This paper finds that kernel partial least squares, a nonlinear part…
Traders and investors involved in an option contract having the underlying stock in range bound are likely to lose their initial investment. Timing in buying an option contract is of capital importance. In a recent article [1] the hypothesis of range bound market is used in conjunction to Black-Scholes equation to find…
DisCoveR efficiently discovers declarative process models from event logs.
The ICML 2013 Workshop on Challenges in Representation Learning focused on three challenges: the black box learning challenge, the facial expression recognition challenge, and the multimodal learning challenge. We describe the datasets created for these challenges and summarize the results of the competitions. We provi…
Paper improves financial trading models using GPU parallelism.
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
Prompted by a recent experiment by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, this note generalises the Kelly strategy (optimal for simple investment games with log utility) to a large class of practical utility functions and including the effect of extraneous wealth. A counterintuitive result is proved : for any continuous, co…
This paper proposes a definition of system health in the context of multiple agents optimizing a joint reward function. We use this definition as a credit assignment term in a policy gradient algorithm to distinguish the contributions of individual agents to the global reward. The health-informed credit assignment is t…
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
New algorithm selects variables from large datasets.
Machine learning competitions such as those organized by Kaggle or KDD represent a useful benchmark for data science research. In this work, we present our winning solution to the Game Data Mining competition hosted at the 2017 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG 2017). The contest consisted of…
This paper presents a general framework for studying diverse beliefs in dynamic economies. Within this general framework, the characterization of a central-planner general equilbrium turns out to be very easy to derive, and leads to a range of interesting applications. We show how for an economy with log investors hold…
Improved fMRI analysis models enhance classification performance and select relevant brain regions.
Study predicts individual treatment effects in ride-sharing competitions.
Short-term incentives lead to riskier trading strategies.
This paper proposes a novel framework for fusing multi-temporal, multispectral satellite images and OpenStreetMap (OSM) data for the classification of local climate zones (LCZs). Feature stacking is the most commonly-used method of data fusion but does not consider the heterogeneity of multimodal optical images and OSM…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
Study nonconcave portfolio choice with smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
Study analyzes neural network models to understand generalization performance.
Research identifies four motivational groups for crypto-metaverse landowners.
In this paper we study some aspects of knots and links in lens spaces. Namely, if we consider lens spaces as quotient of the unit ball with suitable identification of boundary points, then we can project the links on the equatorial disk of , obtaining a regular diagram for them. In this contest, we obtai…
The New Yorker publishes a weekly captionless cartoon. More than 5,000 readers submit captions for it. The editors select three of them and ask the readers to pick the funniest one. We describe an experiment that compares a dozen automatic methods for selecting the funniest caption. We show that negative sentiment, hum…
Survival analysis models predict economic convergence across Americas.
Bitcoin fails to prove safe haven status during pandemic.
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution of the underlying asset returns is fully known. In practice, both the performance…
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with empirical data. At the same time, it is desirable to still preserve some analytical tra…
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
Contingent Convertible bonds (CoCos) are debt instruments that convert into equity or are written down in times of distress. Existing pricing models assume conversion triggers based on market prices and on the assumption that markets can always observe all relevant firm information. But all Cocos issued so far have tri…
The paper examines the potential of deep learning to support decisions in financial risk management. We develop a deep learning model for predicting whether individual spread traders secure profits from future trades. This task embodies typical modeling challenges faced in risk and behavior forecasting. Conventional ma…
This paper studies how relative performance concerns affect stock prices in a tree-like market model.
Unified formula for optimal portfolio under piecewise hyperbolic risk aversion.