arXiv research

Quantum Portfolios of quantum algorithms encoded on qbits have recently been reported. In this paper a discussion of the continuous variables version of quantum portfolios is presented. A risk neutral valuation model for options dependent on the measured values of the observables, analogous to the traditional Black-Sch…

This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples of annuity products, one having annual payments linked to a mortality index and…

Enhanced Gordon growth model for valuing financial products.

This paper surveys options pricing under arithmetic Brownian motion and derives formulas for various types of options.

A risk-neutral valuation framework is developed for pricing and hedging in-play football bets based on modelling scores by independent Poisson processes with constant intensities. The Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing are applied to this set-up which enables us to derive novel arbitrage-free valuation formulæ for c…

The study finds that specific distributions can be used for risk-neutral valuation in Heston's SV model.

The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.

This paper studies the valuation of European contingent claims with short selling bans under the equal risk pricing (ERP) framework proposed in Guo and Zhu (2017) where analytical pricing formulae were derived in the case of monotonic payoffs under risk-neutral measures. We establish a unified framework for this new pr…

Reflected geometric Brownian motion models are not arbitrage-free.

We propose a model for the joint evolution of European inflation, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for a contingent claim depending potentially on all three factors. This valuation equation reduc…

We develop a unified valuation theory that incorporates credit risk (defaults), collateralization and funding costs, by expanding the replication approach to a generality that has not yet been studied previously and reaching valuation when replication is not assumed. This unifying theoretical framework clarifies the re…

This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive marginal quantization (JRMQ) algorithms outside the framework of traditional ri…

This paper highlights the role of risk neutral investors in generating endogenous bubbles in derivatives markets. We find that a market for derivatives, which has all the features of a perfect market except completeness and has some risk neutral investors, can exhibit extreme price movements which represent a violation…

Generative model uses DDPMs for risk-neutral derivative pricing.

Develops a binary tree model for option pricing with skew dynamics.

Unified methods for hedging impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges.

A very brief history of relative valuation in neoclassical finance since 1973 is presented, with attention to core currency issues for emerging economies. Price formation is considered in the context of hierarchical causality, with discussion focussed on identifying mathematical modelling challenges for robust and tran…

We study the formation of derivative prices in equilibrium between risk-neutral agents with heterogeneous beliefs about the dynamics of the underlying. Under the condition that the derivative cannot be shorted, we prove the existence of a unique equilibrium price and show that it incorporates the speculative value of p…

Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton …

Study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives, aligning with replication strategy and addressing timing frictions.

Much research in systemic risk is focused on default contagion. While this demands an understanding of valuation, fewer articles specifically deal with the existence, the uniqueness, and the computation of equilibrium prices in structural models of interconnected financial systems. However, beyond contagion research, t…

We study robust notions of good-deal hedging and valuation under combined uncertainty about the drifts and volatilities of asset prices. Good-deal bounds are determined by a subset of risk-neutral pricing measures such that not only opportunities for arbitrage are excluded but also deals that are too good, by restricti…

The importance of counterparty credit risk to the derivative contracts was demonstrated consistently throughout the financial crisis of 2008. Accurate valuation of Credit value adjustment (CVA) is essential to reflect the economic values of these risks. In the present article, we reviewed several different approaches f…

Quantum algorithm reduces CVA risk-neutral expectation estimation costs.

The study uses historical revenue data to forecast music catalog cashflows and multipliers.

Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.

Extended Jarrow-Rudd model with skewness and kurtosis for option pricing.

Bayesian MS-VAR process improves option pricing models.

Derives pricing formulas for liquidity tokens in CPMMs, showing riskless growth.

We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship…

The paper models rating transitions and calibrates them to market data for XVA calculations.

We study conditions for existence, uniqueness and invariance of the comprehensive nonlinear valuation equations first introduced in Pallavicini et al (2011). These equations take the form of semilinear PDEs and Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDEs). After summarizing the cash flows definitions all…

In this paper we describe how to include funding and margining costs into a risk-neutral pricing framework for counterparty credit risk. We consider realistic settings and we include in our models the common market practices suggested by the ISDA documentation without assuming restrictive constraints on margining proce…

Develops a new option pricing model under G-expectation framework.

In general it is not clear which kind of information is supposed to be used for calculating the fair value of a contingent claim. Even if the information is specified, it is not guaranteed that the fair value is uniquely determined by the given information. A further problem is that asset prices are typically expressed…

The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.

We develop an arbitrage-free framework for consistent valuation of derivative trades with collateralization, counterparty credit gap risk, and funding costs, following the approach first proposed by Pallavicini and co-authors in 2011. Based on the risk-neutral pricing principle, we derive a general pricing equation whe…

This paper introduces an intermediary between conditional expectation and conditional sublinear expectation, called R-conditioning. The R-conditioning of a random-vector in $L^2$ is defined as the best $L^2$-estimate, given a $σ$-subalgebra and a degree of model uncertainty. When the random vector represents the payoff…

New option type preserves fungibility by amortizing payments over time.

The main result of this paper is a collateralized counterparty valuation adjusted pricing equation, which allows to price a deal while taking into account credit and debit valuation adjustments (CVA, DVA) along with margining and funding costs, all in a consistent way. Funding risk breaks the bilateral nature of the va…

Paper introduces a new pricing model for Uniswap V3 positions.

This paper studies the optimal timing to liquidate credit derivatives in a general intensity-based credit risk model under stochastic interest rate. We incorporate the potential price discrepancy between the market and investors, which is characterized by risk-neutral valuation under different default risk premia speci…

The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.

We propose a continuous-time model of trading with heterogeneous beliefs. Risk-neutral agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on positions and thus their marginal valuations decrease with the size of their position, as it would be the case for risk-averse agents. In the equilibrium models of heterogeneous beliefs that fo…

Credit risk may be warehoused by choice, or because of limited hedging possibilities. Credit risk warehousing increases capital requirements and leaves open risk. Open risk must be priced in the physical measure, rather than the risk neutral measure, and implies profits and losses. Furthermore the rate of return on cap…

Study shows priority access in ELA auctions is less valuable due to volatility risks.

This paper proposes a new geometric framework for asset pricing.

This study compares direct and indirect methods for estimating own funds in life insurance, finding indirect methods more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling.