Investing in high quality firms yields excess returns, contrary to risk or behavioral explanations.
problem Excess returns of quality stocks despite risk and behavioral explanations.
method Investigated two explanations: risk and behavioral views; provided novel evidence for the behavioral view.
result Excess returns of quality stocks are not due to risk, but due to systematic underestimation by analysts.
A new game-theoretic approach balances downside risk with expected reward.
problem Traditional game theory views risk only from the upside perspective, ignoring downside risk.
method Introduces downside risk aware equilibria (DRAE) based on lower partial moments.
result Successfully finds equilibria that balance downside risk with expected reward.
This paper tackles incomplete multi-view clustering with spectral perturbation theory.
problem Realistic clustering scenario where data instances are missing in certain views.
method Spectral perturbation theory and matrix completion method for incomplete similarity matrix.
result The minimization of perturbation risk bounds maximizes the final fusion result across all views.
A new CoVaR framework integrates expert views using entropy pooling.
problem Risk assessment and spillover effects from diverse expert views.
method Entropy pooling method to integrate expert views and compute general CoVaR.
result General CoVaR shows linear relationships with expectations and differences in expectations, and nonlinear dependencies with variance, quantiles, and correlation.
Entropy based ideas find wide-ranging applications in finance for calibrating models of portfolio risk as well as options pricing. The abstracted problem, extensively studied in the literature, corresponds to finding a probability measure that minimizes relative entropy with respect to a specified measure while satisfy…
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in modeling decisions.
method Subjective risk decomposition using strictly proper loss.
result Recovery of classic uncertainty measures and new learning-theoretic connections.
Proposes a novel model for healthcare and SME credit risk prediction.
problem Lack of guidance from global view in sequence representation learning for time series modeling.
method Hierarchical Global View-guided (HGV) sequence representation learning framework with GGE and β-Attn modules. result Competitive prediction performance compared with other known baselines.
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
Mixup helps learn both features in multi-view classification problems.
problem Learning both features in multi-view classification problems.
method Training with a specific instantiation of Mixup.
result Training with Mixup leads to learning both features for every class.
Regulation and risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss distribution function for a financial entity. We demonstrate that a lack of suffi…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear different levels of risk --- is indeed shown to have much better properties than …
Investigates risk measures for DC pension decumulation.
problem Develop optimal decumulation strategies for DC plan holders.
method Formulates decumulation as a control problem, studies risk measures (expected shortfall, linear shortfall, probability of shortfall).
result Optimal controls for expected reward and expected shortfall are identical to those for expected reward and linear shortfall.
The problem of estimation error of Expected Shortfall is analyzed, with a view of its introduction as a global regulatory risk measure.
Systemic risks characterizing the Russian overnight interbank market from the network point of view are analyzed.
A framework converts spatial data into embeddings for insurance risk modelling.
problem Improving underwriting precision and risk management in insurance with spatial data.
method Multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings.
result Spatial embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across various models.
Gradient flow in least squares regression is at least 1.69 times riskier than ridge regression.
problem Comparing the risk of gradient descent iterates to ridge regression in least squares regression.
method Continuous-time view of gradient descent, proving risk bounds.
result Gradient flow's risk is at least 1.69 times that of ridge regression.
New approach combines multi-view learning for improved convergence in knowledge transfer.
problem Improving convergence in knowledge transfer settings like learning with privileged information and distillation.
method Adopting a multi-view approach under reasonable assumptions about hypothesis spaces, encouraging agreement between teacher and student.
result Improved convergence rate achieved with regularized empirical risk minimization.
Study finds stocks with higher cyber risk scores outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
problem Identifying and quantifying firms' cyber risks and their impact on stock performance.
method Machine learning algorithm to analyze disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus.
result High cyber risk stocks significantly outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
A trader optimizes robust superhedging under subjective market views.
problem Optimizing robust superhedging with subjective market views.
method Dynamic programming and robust maximization under new measures.
result Existence and uniqueness of optimal investment and consumption strategies.
New fair risk allocation method for banks.
problem Fair allocation of systemic risk measures.
method Dual representation and utility maximization problem.
result Optimal risk allocation is fair for individual banks.
Bayesian market views improve asset allocation performance.
problem Leveraging public mood for trusted and interpretable asset allocation.
method Formalize public mood into market views, use Bayesian asset allocation model, train neural models.
result Formalized market views increase portfolio profitability by 5-10% annually.
The article develops a model for skewness risk in risk parity portfolios.
problem Managing skewness risk in asset allocation models.
method Modeling asset returns with skewness and jumps, deriving analytical formulas for risk contributions.
result Skewness-based risk parity portfolios outperform volatility-based portfolios in managing jump risks.
A method for combining classifiers from multiple views using Bregman divergences.
problem Combining classifiers from multiple views with limited labeled data.
method Jointly learns view-specific and overall weighted majority vote classifiers using Bregman divergences.
result Empirical results show improved classifier performance with limited labeled data.
Optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks are derived without specific dependency assumptions.
problem Finding optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks without assuming their dependency structure.
method Assumes maximal expected utility criterion and independent negotiation of reinsurance for each risk. Derives optimality conditions and shows that under mild assumptions, optimal contracts are classical (non-randomized) type.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts exist and can be classical (non-randomized) type under mild assumptions.
Study proposes a new risk measure for optimal portfolio allocation.
problem Challenges in estimating optimal portfolios based on pessimistic risk.
method Introduces uniform pessimistic risk and computational algorithm.
result Demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed risk and portfolio model with real data analysis.
Study asymptotic properties of generalized shortfall risk measures for heavy-tailed risks.
problem Understanding risk measures for heavy-tailed risks.
method Derive asymptotic expansions for generalized shortfall risk measures.
result Unified theory for risk measures including distortion and utility-based measures.
Paper models Alzheimer's disease using genotypic, phenotypic, and cognitive data.
problem Early detection and risk factor identification for Alzheimer's disease.
method Probabilistic generative subspace learning from multi-view medical data.
result Proposes a method to model Alzheimer's disease that combines genotypic, phenotypic, and cognitive data.
Paper tackles modal regression using statistical learning methods.
problem Nonparametric modal regression problem.
method Empirical risk minimization approach.
result Modal regression function and risk defined, function estimation consistency achieved.
New framework for calculating multivariate risk measures using Wishart process.
problem Quantifying multivariate risk measures in financial markets.
method Introducing a new analytical framework based on the Wishart process.
result Explicit computation of conditional tail risk measures up to two dimensions.
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
problem Risk assessment and management in industrial enterprises.
method Qualitative and quantitative analysis, systematic risk classification, dynamic system development.
result Effective risk management strategies formed through dynamic risk management system and risk assessment methods.
PAC-Bayesian analysis improves multiview learning by controlling diversity and accuracy trade-off.
problem Improving multiview learning by combining classifiers from multiple views.
method PAC-Bayesian framework for a two-step hierarchical multiview learning approach.
result Generalization bound on the risk of the majority vote with a diversity term in predictions.
Bayesian CRM improves offline learning from logged bandit data.
problem Offline learning from logged bandit feedback.
method PAC-Bayesian analysis for a new generalization bound, novel regularization technique.
result New technique outperforms standard L2 regularization and is competitive with variance regularization. We introduce and compare new variability measures based on risk quantiles.
problem Comparing variability measures in risk management.
method Developed a framework for one-parameter families of inter-Expected Shortfall differences and inter-expectile differences.
result Characterized symmetric and comonotonic variability measures as mixtures of inter-Expected Shortfall differences.
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
The paper introduces Lambda VaR, a new risk measure, and develops three backtesting methods.
problem Theoretical limitations and practical challenges of VaR in risk management.
method Three nonparametric backtesting methodologies for Lambda VaR.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Lambda VaR and its backtesting methods.
A modified Black-Litterman model using intuitionistic fuzzy returns.
problem Quantifying expert views under uncertainty.
method Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to represent expert views, proving posterior return as an intuitionistic fuzzy probabilistic set.
result Existence and properties of the posterior return in the modified model.
New tensor approach models global fixed income risks across maturities and economies.
problem Lack of models capturing multi-dimensional data in global fixed income markets.
method Introduces tensor-valued approach to model shared risks among multiple interest rate curves.
result Estimates risk factors decomposable into maturity and country domains, enabling tailored portfolio management.
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to asymmetrical views.
The paper finds socially optimal reinsurance treaties using Value-at-Risk and Range-Value-at-Risk.
problem Finding socially optimal reinsurance treaties in a network of insurance companies.
method Optimization problem with Value-at-Risk and Range-Value-at-Risk, considering monotonicity and stochastic ordering.
result Layer reinsurance treaties are socially optimal under certain conditions.
Paper presents efficient IS for tail risk estimation with machine learning features.
problem Estimating Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk with black-box access.
method Efficient Importance Sampling algorithm with self-structuring transformation.
result Asymptotically optimal variance reduction in logarithmic scale.
Monitoring means to observe a system for any changes which may occur over time, using a monitor or measuring device of some sort. In this paper we formulate a problem of monitoring dates of maximal risk of a financial position. Thus, the systems we are going to observe arise from situations in finance. The measuring de…
Introduces an artificial cyber lab to test and identify cyber resilience measures.
problem Systemic cyber risks and their control methods.
method Classical contagion models and artificial cyber lab simulations.
result Identified two classes of measures: security- and topology-based interventions.
The paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach for operational risk and advocates for maintaining the Advanced Measurement Approach.
problem The weaknesses and pitfalls of the Standardized Measurement Approach for operational risk.
method Discussion and study of the weaknesses and pitfalls of the Standardized Measurement Approach.
result Advocates for maintaining the Advanced Measurement Approach and suggests standardization recommendations.
We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the guaranteed level, a third party will refund the investor up to the guarantee. In ex…
VIB balances empirical and Bayesian approaches in predictive models.
problem Balancing empirical and Bayesian methods in predictive models.
method VIB as a compromise between empirical and Bayesian objectives.
result VIB minimizes risks due to finite sampling of targets.
Paper shows robust estimators converge to true risk minimizers at optimal rates.
problem Understanding asymptotic properties of robust risk minimizers.
method Investigates robust analogues of empirical risk minimization, focusing on median of means estimator.
result Robust minimizers converge to true minimizers at optimal rates and have similar asymptotic variance.
New risk measures adjust for tail risk inadequacies.
problem Tail risk inadequacy in classical risk measures.
method Developed a family of adjusted risk measures using target risk profiles.
result Analyzed and derived properties of adjusted risk measures.