This work presents an asset pricing model that under rational expectation equilibrium perspective shows how, depending on risk aversion and noise volatility, a risky-asset has one equilibrium price that differs in term of efficiency: an informational efficient one (similar to Campbell and Kyle (1993)), and another one …
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48 results for “risk perception”
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false definition of risk-perception, which we correct by introducing Expected Downside Ris…
Perception Learning: A Formal Separation of Sensory Representation Learning from Decision Learningcs.LG
PeL separates sensory interface optimization from decision learning.
problem Optimizing sensory interfaces without task-specific information.
method Formal separation of perception and decision learning, using metrics for stability, informativeness, and geometry.
result Updates preserving invariants are orthogonal to decision gradients.
We provide analytical results for a static portfolio optimization problem with two coherent risk measures. The use of two risk measures is motivated by joint decision-making for portfolio selection where the risk perception of the portfolio manager is of primary concern, hence, it appears in the objective function, and…
Survey examines types of systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial networks.
method Taxonomy of systemic risk types and regulatory measures.
result Different types of systemic risk identified.
Neilson's Weak vs. Strong Loss Aversion: A Characterization and a Generalized CPT-Utility Functionq-fin.MF
This paper analyzes risk perception and aversion in decision-making.
problem Understanding and quantifying risk perception and aversion in decision-making.
method Theoretical analysis and generalized CPT-utility function development.
result A generalized CPT-utility function that captures risk perception and aversion.
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
problem Risk management and actuarial modeling for autonomous vehicles.
method Examines technical difficulties and proposes a novel risk model.
result The new model better reflects real-world driving safety.
"Digitwashing": The Gap between Words and Deeds in Digital Transformation and Stock Price Crash Riskq-fin.ST
Digitwashing gap boosts stock crash risk, study finds.
problem The gap between companies' digital promises and actual performance increases stock crash risk.
method Empirical analysis of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share companies from 2010 to 2021, robustness tests conducted.
result GDT significantly increases stock price crash risk, confirmed by robust tests.
What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk. The first is a common-sense…
Residual Networks (ResNets) have become state-of-the-art models in deep learning and several theoretical studies have been devoted to understanding why ResNet works so well. One attractive viewpoint on ResNet is that it is optimizing the risk in a functional space by combining an ensemble of effective features. In this…
Model predicts internal fraud in retail banking is cyclical and influenced by corruption.
problem Predicting and mitigating internal fraud losses in retail banking.
method Developed a dynamic model considering internal factors and macroeconomic indicators.
result Internal fraud losses are pro-cyclical and positively affected by corruption perceptions.
Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubblescond-mat.stat-mech
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …
Information of Interestq-fin.PR
A pricing formula for discount bonds, based on the consideration of the market perception of future liquidity risk, is established. An information-based model for liquidity is then introduced, which is used to obtain an expression for the bond price. Analysis of the bond price dynamics shows that the bond volatility is…
Existing model-based reinforcement learning methods often study perception modeling and decision making separately. We introduce joint Perception and Control as Inference (PCI), a general framework to combine perception and control for partially observable environments through Bayesian inference. Based on the fact that…
Characterization of the Distortion-Perception Tradeoff for Finite Channels with Arbitrary Metricscs.IT
Study the tradeoff between signal distortion and human perception over finite channels.
problem Characterize the distortion-perception tradeoff for finite channels with arbitrary metrics.
method Solve linear programming problems to compute the distortion-perception function and optimal reconstructions.
result DP function is piecewise linear in the perception index.
A framework isolates VQA reasoning from perception for better model evaluation.
problem Improper separation of visual perception and reasoning in VQA models.
method Introducing a framework and a top-down calibration technique to decouple reasoning from perception.
result Improved evaluation of VQA models by separating reasoning from perception.
End-to-end autonomous driving perception learns latent features for better performance.
problem Current autonomous driving systems are complex and require human engineering.
method Sequential latent representation learning for end-to-end perception.
result End-to-end perception model solves detection, tracking, localization, and mapping problems.
Geometry of Music Perceptionmath.DG
Geometric model explains music perception combining neuroscience and acoustics.
problem Rationalize and predict psycho-acoustic phenomena in music perception.
method Combining neuroscientific theories with acoustic observations, a geometric model of the space of all chords is created.
result The geometric model allows for rigorous studies of psychoacoustic quantities like roughness and harmonicity.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
We investigate the effects of the social interactions of a finite set of agents on an equilibrium pricing mechanism. A derivative written on non-tradable underlyings is introduced to the market and priced in an equilibrium framework by agents who assess risk using convex dynamic risk measures expressed by Backward Stoc…
RETR improves indoor radar perception with a novel transformer model.
problem Indoor radar perception lacks models tailored for multi-view radar settings.
method RETR extends DETR architecture with depth-prioritized feature similarity, tri-plane loss, and radar-to-camera transformation.
result RETR outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 15.38+ AP for object detection and 11.91+ IoU for instance segmentation.
Researchers study how teachers' advising relationships influence their perceptions of satisfaction and students, not policy influence.
problem Understanding the relationship between teachers' advising relationships and their perceptions of satisfaction and students.
method Proposed a novel joint model of network and item responses (JNIRM) with correlated latent variables.
result Teachers' advising relationships contribute more to satisfaction and students than to influence over educational policies.
Study how actions affect perception in embodied agents using group theory.
problem Understanding how actions influence perception in autonomous agents.
method Mathematical formalism of group theory applied to sensory commutativity of action sequences.
result Introduced Sensory Commutativity Probability (SCP) to measure action effects on perception.
Reconstruction-based learning produces uninformative features for perception tasks.
problem Misalignment between reconstruction-based learning and perception tasks.
method Investigated the impact of input space reconstruction on feature learning for perception tasks.
result Reconstruction-based learning allocates model capacity to a subspace with uninformative features for perception tasks.
Tensor models decode human perception and memory using SPO triples.
problem Understanding implicit and explicit perception and memory in the brain.
method Tensor models with SPO triples, dual representations, and four layers.
result Semantic memory is crucial for explicit perception and declarative memories.
Logical scaffolds enhance AI software quality.
problem Improving AI component quality in software.
method Logical scaffolds as a method to improve AI components.
result Logical scaffolds can improve AI beyond perception systems.
PERCEPT detects changes in high-dimensional data streams using topological data analysis.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data streams, especially when embedded in a low-dimensional space.
method Leverages topological data analysis to learn embedded topology as a point cloud via persistence diagrams, then applies non-parametric monitoring for detecting changes.
result Demonstrates efficient detection of online changes from high-dimensional data streams.
Sensorimotor contingency theory offers a promising account of the nature of perception, a topic rarely addressed in the robotics community. We propose a developmental framework to address the problem of the autonomous acquisition of sensorimotor contingencies by a naive robot. While exploring the world, the robot inter…
While perception tasks such as visual object recognition and text understanding play an important role in human intelligence, the subsequent tasks that involve inference, reasoning and planning require an even higher level of intelligence. The past few years have seen major advances in many perception tasks using deep …
Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.
problem Risks and uncertainties in establishing a low-carbon economy in Balkan countries with transition economies.
method Transdisciplinary approach combining economic policy, public opinion, and climate change models.
result Identifies shadow economy and populism as key risk factors for low-carbon economy implementation.
Default-ERM shortcut learning persists even without additional information.
problem Default-ERM shortcut learning in perception tasks despite stable feature sufficiency.
method Studied linear perception task; developed margin control (MARG-CTRL) loss functions.
result Margin control mitigates shortcut learning on various tasks.
DGP learns speech recognition by modeling complex relationships between utterances.
problem Modeling complex relationships in speech recognition without relational data.
method Bayesian nonparametric deep learning method (DGP) that generates infinite probabilistic graphs.
result DGP successfully infers relationships among utterances without relational data during training.
The study improves deep learning models for safer autonomous vehicles.
problem Robustness of deep neural network models in autonomous driving.
method Analyzes and proposes solutions for deep learning model robustness.
result Enhanced deep learning models for safer autonomous vehicles.
Motivated by vision-based control of autonomous vehicles, we consider the problem of controlling a known linear dynamical system for which partial state information, such as vehicle position, is extracted from complex and nonlinear data, such as a camera image. Our approach is to use a learned perception map that predi…
RAGIC predicts stock intervals with risk considerations, improving prediction accuracy and coverage.
problem Limited success in predicting stock market outcomes due to stochastic nature and risk oversight.
method RAGIC uses a GAN with a risk module and temporal module to generate risk-sensitive stock intervals.
result RAGIC achieves a consistent 95% coverage with narrow interval widths, balancing accuracy and risk.
This paper examines if CTE risk measure aligns with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations.
problem Whether CTE risk measure aligns with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations.
method Exhaustive probabilistic model settings analysis.
result CTE risk measure may align with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations under certain conditions.
Paper defines and quantifies safety risks in deep neural networks.
problem Safety concerns in deep neural networks applied to critical sectors.
method Defines safety property, computes maximum safe radius, identifies new risk class, develops algorithm.
result Method achieves competitive performance in safety quantification.
A Layered Architecture for Active Perception: Image Classification using Deep Reinforcement Learningcs.LG
A robot learns to classify images with limited perception using a layered reinforcement learning approach.
problem Image classification for robots with partial perception.
method Three-layer architecture using deep reinforcement learning, including meta-layer, action-layer, and classification-layer.
result The method achieves high accuracy on the MNIST dataset and provides explainability of the agent's decision-making process.
New RBM method for missing data inference, comparing performance to existing methods.
problem Missing data inference and perception-distortion trade-off.
method Linearization of RBM effective energy function for missing data.
result Proposed method outperforms existing reconstruction procedures in missing data inference.
Cooperative Perception for 3D Object Detection in Driving Scenarios using Infrastructure Sensorscs.CV
Cooperative perception improves 3D object detection in autonomous vehicles.
problem Limited field-of-view and occlusion in single sensor data.
method Early fusion of point clouds from multiple sensors, late fusion of independently detected bounding boxes, and hybrid combination.
result Early fusion approach outperforms late fusion by significantly higher recall (95%) compared to single-point sensing (30%).
Study shows social media impacts shareholder returns on ESG risks.
problem Investor sentiment and public opinion on ESG risks.
method Event study design using social media data.
result Statistically significant reduction in abnormal returns after ESG-risk events.
An algorithm detects anomalies based on human perception principles.
problem Anomaly detection in data.
method Inspired by Gestalt psychology and Helmholtz principle, the algorithm models anomalies as unexpected elements in random distributions.
result The algorithm efficiently detects anomalies with minimal user intervention and promising results on multivariate data.
New coding theorem shows achievable rate matches theoretical limit.
problem Unknown existence of encoders and decoders for RDPF.
method Used stochastic, variable-length codes to prove RDPF achievable.
result Achievable rate matches theoretical rate-distortion-perception function.
Method transfers feature representation from large to small models using perception coherence.
problem Transfer feature representation from large to small models.
method Defines perception coherence, proposes loss function to minimize.
result Method outperforms or achieves on-par performance compared to strong baseline methods.
Interest rates mappingq-fin.ST
The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space - time and maturity. Geostatistical models and machine le…
Bayesian models explain human time perception biases.
problem Understanding human time perception using Bayesian inference.
method Agent-based machine learning models and empirical data analysis.
result Bayesian models can replicate human time estimation biases.
In Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), one fundamental pillar is perception, which leverages sensors like cameras and LiDARs (Light Detection and Ranging) to understand the driving environment. Due to its direct impact on road safety, multiple prior efforts have been made to study its the security of perception systems. In cont…
We inspect a possible clustering structure of the corruption perception among 134 countries. Using the average linkage clustering, we uncover a well-defined hierarchy in the relationships among countries. Four main clusters are identified and they suggest that countries worldwide can be quite well separated according t…