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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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56112167223 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for risk monotonization

New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.

problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.

Framework mitigates risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.

problem Risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.
method Model-agnostic framework using cross-validation and data-driven methodologies (zero- and one-step).
result Modified prediction procedures achieve monotonic asymptotic risk behavior.

This paper shows how to calculate risk measures for sums of two counter-monotonic risks.

problem Calculating risk measures for sums of two counter-monotonic risks.
method Using a fixed distortion function and expressing the risk measure of a sum as the sum of two related measures of the marginals.
result The risk measure of a sum of two counter-monotonic risks can be expressed as the sum of two related distortion risk measures of the marginals.

The paper addresses monotonicity in machine learning models for fairness and accountability.

problem Ensuring fairness and accountability in transparent machine learning models.
method Study of three types of monotonicity (individual, weak pairwise, strong pairwise) and propose monotonic groves of neural additive models.
result Monotonic groves of neural additive models maintain transparency, accountability, and fairness.

The paper studies risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents using a common distortion risk measure.

problem Characterizing Pareto-optimal risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents.
method Modeling preferences with a common distortion risk measure and analyzing three settings: risk-averse, risk-seeking, and inverse S-shaped distortion.
result Pareto-optimal allocations for risk-seeking agents are counter-monotonic, not comonotonic.

Study risk sharing among agents with varying risk preferences.

problem Risk sharing among agents with heterogeneous risk measures.
method Derive explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution under varying risk seeking.
result Explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution can be represented by a generalization of distortion risk measures.

The paper addresses how to complete incomplete risk markets by iteratively enhancing welfare.

problem How to complete incomplete risk markets to enhance welfare.
method Iterative mechanism to complete the market while monotonically enhancing welfare.
result Iterative completion of incomplete risk markets can enhance welfare.

Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.

problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O(1/n)\mathcal{O}(1/n) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing.

Study non-monotonic loss functions in CRC, achieving valid risk control with large calibration samples.

problem Non-monotonic loss functions in CRC, violating existing theory's monotonicity assumption.
method Finite grid selection, calibration sample size analysis, Lipschitz continuity, monotonicity, distribution shift.
result Valid CRC achieved with large calibration samples, optimal excess risk rate of log(m)/n\sqrt{\log(m)/n}.

The paper examines the unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives in large portfolios.

problem Understanding the unexpected losses and risk ratios for large portfolios with co-monotonic alternatives.
method Analyzes the asymptotic behavior of unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives using monotone cash-additive risk measures and Choquet insurance premia.
result Unexpected losses of large weighted portfolios are of order o(nλn)o(n\overlineλ_n), where λn\overlineλ_n is the average weight.

Study on pairwise counter-monotonicity, a type of negative dependence.

problem Understanding and quantifying extremal negative dependence structures.
method Established stochastic representation and invariance property; showed implications and connections.
result Pairwise counter-monotonicity implies negative association and joint mix dependence.

Plotting a learner's average performance against the number of training samples results in a learning curve. Studying such curves on one or more data sets is a way to get to a better understanding of the generalization properties of this learner. The behavior of learning curves is, however, not very well understood and…

2019-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal risk sharing found for heterogeneous risk attitudes using distortion risk measures.

problem Risk sharing in economies with diverse risk attitudes.
method Modeling preferences with distortion risk measures, using comonotonic and counter-monotonic principles.
result Optimal risk sharing strategies identified based on risk attitudes, reducing the nn-agent problem to a two-agent formulation.

The paper explores capital allocation using Euler formula with VaR and ES, revealing non-monotonicity and providing estimation methods.

problem Non-monotonicity in VaR-based capital allocation and the need for consistent risk measures.
method Use of Euler formula, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Expected shortfall (ES), simulation, and Markov chain Monte Carlo.
result Capital allocation with VaR is not monotonous, and consistent risk measures are crucial.

The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.

problem Risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
method Characterizes Pareto-optimal allocations using Gini deviation, mean-median deviation, and inter-quantile difference as variability measures.
result Optimal allocations are not comonotonic and feature a mixture of pairwise counter-monotonic structures.

Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.

problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.

This paper uses neural networks to accurately model competing risks in survival analysis.

problem Ignoring competing risks leads to biased survival estimation in machine learning models.
method The paper introduces constrained monotonic neural networks to model each competing survival distribution.
result The method ensures exact likelihood maximization with reduced computational cost.

The paper evaluates joint life insurance risk under dependence uncertainty using copulas and convex risk measures.

problem Evaluating risk of joint life insurance products under uncertainty in dependence structure.
method Monotonicity of risk evaluation with concordance order, linear programming for bounds, and numerical analysis.
result Bounds for mean, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall computed using linear programs.

Monotonic relationship found between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance.

problem Understanding performance of machine learning models under distribution shifts.
method Analyzing ridge-regularized models and linear inverse problems under covariate shift.
result Monotonic relationship between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance for certain models.

The aims of this study are twofold. First, we consider an optimal risk allocation problem with non-convex preferences. By establishing an infimal representation for distortion risk measures, we give some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal and asymptotic optimal allocations. We will show th…

2015-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We analyze a nonlinear equation proposed by F. Black (1968) for the optimal portfolio function in a log-normal model. We cast it in terms of the risk tolerance function and provide, for general utility functions, existence, uniqueness and regularity results, and we also examine various monotonicity, concavity/convexity…

2017-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for optimizing risk in financial models using Fourier transforms.

problem Optimizing risk in financial models with multi-period mean-CVaR.
method Strictly monotone 2D integration scheme via Fourier-trained transition kernels.
result Established robust and accurate optimization method for financial models.

Characterizes continuity of monotone functionals in mixed topology.

problem Continuity of monotone functionals in mixed topology.
method Characterization through lower semicontinuity and dual representations.
result Continuity in mixed topology is equivalent to dual representation in terms of countably additive measures.

This survey gives an introduction to monetary measures of risk as monotone and cash additive functions on spaces of univariate random variables. Primal and dual representation results as well as several examples are discussed. Principal ways to construct risk measures are given and extensions to more general situations…

2018-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and strictly monotone over a broad sub-domain including all continuous distributions, wh…

2017-08-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes high-dimensional kernel regression, showing different risk curves based on data and regularization.

problem Characterizing generalization properties of high-dimensional kernel ridge regression.
method Bias-variance decomposition of the expected excess risk, considering different regularization schemes and data eigen-profiles.
result The risk curve of kernel regression can be double-descent-like, bell-shaped, or monotonic, depending on n, d, and regularization level.

This paper deals with multidimensional dynamic risk measures induced by conditional gg-expectations. A notion of multidimensional gg-expectation is proposed to provide a multidimensional version of nonlinear expectations. By a technical result on explicit expressions for the comparison theorem, uniqueness theorem and…

2010-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper benchmarks monotone-constrained models for credit PD across datasets and finds constraints are mostly costless.

problem Aligning machine learning model behavior with domain knowledge in credit risk.
method Benchmarked monotone-constrained versus unconstrained gradient boosting models across five datasets and three libraries, defining the Price of Monotonicity (PoM) as the relative change in AUC.
result Monotonicity constraints are almost costless on large datasets and most costly on smaller datasets, with PoM ranging from essentially zero to about 2.9 percent.

Large GD stepsizes improve margins and speed up training for non-homogeneous networks.

problem Training efficiency and margin improvement in non-homogeneous two-layer networks.
method Investigation of two distinct phases in GD training, showing margin growth and empirical risk decrease.
result Large GD stepsizes lead to faster convergence and improved margins in non-homogeneous networks.

We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not …

2010-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on risk measures using distorted Choquet integrals with random distortions.

problem Developing risk measures under random distortions of capacities.
method Introducing and analyzing randomly distorted Choquet integrals with respect to a distorted capacity, establishing properties and providing representations.
result Representation of comonotonic additive conditional risk measures using G-randomly distorted Choquet integrals.

The Lebesgue property (order-continuity) of a monotone convex function on a solid vector space of measurable functions is characterized in terms of (1) the weak inf-compactness of the conjugate function on the order-continuous dual space, (2) the attainment of the supremum in the dual representation by order-continuous…

2013-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

In this article we consider a special case of an optimal consumption/optimal portfolio problem first studied by Constantinides and Magill and by Davis and Norman, in which an agent with constant relative risk aversion seeks to maximise expected discounted utility of consumption over the infinite horizon, in a model com…

2014-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes bagging in overparameterized learning, deriving risk properties and optimal subsample sizes.

problem Characterizing the risk of bagged predictors in overparameterized settings.
method General strategy using classical results on simple random sampling, specialized for ridge and ridgeless predictors.
result Derives exact asymptotic risk of bagged ridge and ridgeless predictors under various conditions.

Study properties of Black-Scholes equation solutions for puttable bonds with credit risk.

problem Properties of solutions to Black-Scholes equation for puttable bonds with credit risk.
method Solution representation, min-max estimation, gradient estimates, strict monotonicity analysis.
result Derivation of analytical pricing formulae for puttable bonds with credit risk.