High quality risk adjustment in health insurance markets weakens insurer incentives to engage in inefficient behavior to attract lower-cost enrollees. We propose a novel methodology based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to improve risk adjustment by clustering diagnostic codes into risk groups optimal for health ex…
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48 results for “risk methodologies”
A new test evaluates risk estimation accuracy using probability integral transform.
problem Measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations.
method Probability Integral Transform (PIT) of ex post realized returns against ex ante probability distributions.
result The new test shows the importance of capturing the dynamic of financial markets.
Dynamic operational risk: modeling dependence and combining different sources of informationq-fin.RM
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well …
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian methodology for Value-at-Risk computation based on parametric Product Partition Models. Value-at-Risk is a standard tool to measure and control the market risk of an asset or a portfolio, and it is also required for regulatory purposes. Its popularity is partly due to the fact …
New method constructs multilayer networks from financial data, capturing dependencies across different risk factors.
problem Difficult construction of multilayer networks, neglecting time delays and interdependencies.
method Tucker tensor autoregression for direct multilayer network construction.
result Captures within and between connections, identifies strong interconnections between volumes and prices layers.
Paper presents a new method for better financial market forecasting.
problem Traditional investment strategies fail to capture market nuances and risks.
method Combines deep learning, factor integration, and correlated stock analysis.
result Enhanced diversification and performance capture in financial markets.
The single risk factor approach to capital charges in case of correlated loss given default ratescond-mat.other
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for capital charges are numerically compared to the current proposals by the Basel Commit…
We discuss a general dynamic replication approach to counterparty credit risk modeling. This leads to a fundamental jump-process backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) for the credit risk adjusted portfolio value. We then reduce the fundamental BSDE to a continuous BSDE. Depending on the close out value conve…
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
In this paper we develop a novel methodology for estimation of risk capital allocation. The methodology is rooted in the theory of risk measures. We work within a general, but tractable class of law-invariant coherent risk measures, with a particular focus on expected shortfall. We introduce the concept of fair capital…
Modern society heavily relies on strongly connected, socio-technical systems. As a result, distinct risks threatening the operation of individual systems can no longer be treated in isolation. Consequently, risk experts are actively seeking for ways to relax the risk independence assumption that undermines typical risk…
Study uses healthcare claims data to identify Covid-19 risk factors without prior selection.
problem Identify risk factors for severe Covid-19 cases.
method Fine-grained hierarchical information from medical classification systems used to analyze over 33,000 covariates.
result Method has better predictive ability than pre-specified morbidity groups.
This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected value of its re…
Method predicts ODX scores for breast cancer patients based on clinical data.
problem Predicting ODX scores for breast cancer patients to aid decision-making.
method Distributional random forest approach using 9 clinico-pathological characteristics.
result Correctly predicted 92% of low risk and 40.2% of high risk patients.
Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuationsphysics.soc-ph
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gau…
Method constructs hedging portfolio for carbon risk but not ESG risk.
problem Hedging carbon risk with ESG risk.
method Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph and node2vec algorithms.
result Efficient hedging portfolio strategy for carbon risk but not ESG risk.
We study the pricing and hedging of derivatives in incomplete financial markets by considering the local risk-minimization method in the context of the benchmark approach, which will be called benchmarked local risk-minimization. We show that the proposed benchmarked local risk-minimization allows to handle under extre…
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed in finitely many steps. The methods are illustrated by numerical examples.
We introduce a dynamic model of the default waterfall of derivatives CCPs and propose a risk sensitive method for sizing the initial margin (IM), and the default fund (DF) and its allocation among clearing members. Using a Markovian structure model of joint credit migrations, our evaluation of DF takes into account the…
By building on a recently introduced genetic-inspired attribute-based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel methodology to compute construction univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at a situational level. Our fully data-driven approach provides construction practitioners and aca…
Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Marketscond-mat.stat-mech
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was …
Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.
problem Evaluating and ranking risky investment projects.
method Introduces an investment certainty equivalence approach and uses the Omega measure.
result Proposed method ranks projects differently from conventional risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) approach.
New method optimizes share buyback contracts without optimal control's limitations.
problem High-dimensional state spaces and risk penalty selection issues in traditional methods.
method Applies optimized heuristic strategies and classical pricing methods.
result Maximizes contract value and disentangles repurchase from hedging.
Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used i…
After the release of the final accounting standards for impairment in July 2014 by the IASB, banks will face the next significant methodological challenge after Basel 2. In this paper, first methodological thoughts are presented, and ways how to approach underlying questions are proposed. It starts with a detailed disc…
Families of exact solutions are found to a nonlinear modification of the Black-Scholes equation. This risk-adjusted pricing methodology model (RAPM) incorporates both transaction costs and the risk from a volatile portfolio. Using the Lie group analysis we obtain the Lie algebra admitted by the RAPM equation. It gives …
Proposes a method to choose thresholds for LLM evaluation metrics.
problem Ensuring reliable large language models (LLMs) with correct threshold selection.
method Identify risks, stakeholders' risk tolerance, and use ground-truth data to determine thresholds.
result Demonstrates a concrete example with the Faithfulness metric and HaluBench dataset.
New risk measures for financial networks avoid external capital, reducing systemic risk.
problem Systemic risk in financial networks is underestimated by traditional methods.
method Developed set-valued, intrinsic risk measures for financial networks.
result Systemic intrinsic risk measures are more stable and avoid reliance on external capital.
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the present pap…
Study improves risk management for volatile markets using expectiles.
problem Limitations of traditional risk measures during market stress.
method Develops expectile-based framework for FTSE 100 index.
result Expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) outperforms traditional VaR measures.
In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered: how the financial risk is distributed among the European countries and how large …
We consider the issue of solution uniqueness for portfolio optimization problem and its inverse for asset returns with a finite number of possible scenarios. The risk is assessed by deviation measures introduced by [Rockafellar et al., Mathematical Programming, Ser. B, 108 (2006), pp. 515-540] instead of variance as in…
A new method prioritizes project risks using Monte Carlo Simulation.
problem Determining the relative importance of project risks.
method Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for quantitative prioritization.
result Differentiates critical risks based on their impact on project duration and cost.
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective is to create monthly or quarterly TPMs with predefined sectors and ratings that …
A Game of Competition for Riskq-fin.CP
Models analyze strategic risk-taking in continuous action games.
problem Strategic risk-taking dynamics in continuous action games.
method Normal form game, multi-player scenarios, regret minimization algorithms, numerical algorithm for calculation.
result Nash equilibrium also serves as a correlated equilibrium in continuous games.
Develops a statistical framework for coherent risk estimation.
problem Constructing coherent risk estimators with sound financial and statistical properties.
method Inspired by axiomatic risk measure theory, defines coherent risk estimators through robust representations linked to -estimators.
result Demonstrates that coherence of a risk measure does not necessarily carry over to its estimators and shows alternative weight structures can lead to different outcomes.
The downside risk of a portfolio of (equity)assets is generally substantially higher than the downside risk of its components. In particular in times of crises when assets tend to have high correlation, the understanding of this difference can be crucial in managing systemic risk of a portfolio. In this paper we genera…
Paper introduces new risk norms based on ES with flexible distortion functions.
problem Risk quantification and anomaly detection in financial data.
method Developed generalized Expected-Shortfall (ES) norms using distortion risk measures and duality theory.
result Unified analytical framework for risk quantification and practical applications.
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is we…
Network theory assesses systemic risk in the insurance sector.
problem Detecting critical insurance companies in systemic risk.
method Complex network approach with weighted effective resistance centrality.
result Identifies companies with significant influence on network robustness.
Entropy based ideas find wide-ranging applications in finance for calibrating models of portfolio risk as well as options pricing. The abstracted problem, extensively studied in the literature, corresponds to finding a probability measure that minimizes relative entropy with respect to a specified measure while satisfy…
This paper considers exponential utility indifference pricing for a multidimensional non-traded assets model subject to inter-temporal default risk, and provides a semigroup approximation for the utility indifference price. The key tool is the splitting method, whose convergence is proved based on the Barles-Souganidis…
Study finds stocks with higher cyber risk scores outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
problem Identifying and quantifying firms' cyber risks and their impact on stock performance.
method Machine learning algorithm to analyze disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus.
result High cyber risk stocks significantly outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
Methodology measures financial impacts using existing credit loss infrastructure.
problem Measuring the impact of financial scenarios on expected credit losses.
method Captures scenario effects through changes in default probabilities; uses existing provisioning infrastructure.
result Methodology validated through standardized climate scenario exercise in Canada and Quebec.
Stochastic Earned Value Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Learning Techniquesq-fin.RM
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
problem Project control under uncertainty.
method Integrates Earned Value Methodology with Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning.
result Estimates probabilities of project success and duration.
A Stochastic Climate Model -- An approach to calibrate the Climate-Extended Risk Model (CERM)q-fin.RM
Proposes a new stochastic method to calibrate climate risks in financial models.
problem Estimating climate-related financial risks in bank loan portfolios.
method Stochastic forward-looking methodology to calibrate climate macro-correlation evolution from scientific data.
result A new framework to evaluate climate risks without specific scenario assumptions.
Managing Risk in DeFi Portfoliosq-fin.PM
This paper assesses risks in DeFi investments.
problem Risks in decentralized finance investments.
method Overview of DeFi components and risk quantification methodology.
result Proposes an allocation methodology to integrate and quantify risks.