A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This work extends set-valued risk measures to discrete time, using difference inclusions and equations.
In this paper we look at the efficacy of different risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indices. We use both the Value at Risk and the Tail Conditional Expectation on each of these data sets. We also consider several different durations and levels for historical risk measures. Throu…
To find a trade-off between profitability and prudence, financial practitioners need to choose appropriate risk measures. Two key points are: Firstly, investors' risk attitudes under uncertainty conditions should be an important reference for risk measures. Secondly, risk attitudes are not absolute. For different marke…
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well …
New method constructs multilayer networks from financial data, capturing dependencies across different risk factors.
The paper establishes a connection between different risk measures and their risk contributions.
We use methods from network science to analyze corruption risk in a large administrative dataset of over 4 million public procurement contracts from European Union member states covering the years 2008-2016. By mapping procurement markets as bipartite networks of issuers and winners of contracts we can visualize and de…
MaxRM uses random forests to minimize maximum risk across different environments.
A clinician desires to use a risk-stratification method that achieves confident risk-stratification - the risk estimates of the different patients reflect the true risks with a high probability. This allows him/her to use these risks to make accurate predictions about prognosis and decisions about screening, treatments…
New method assesses financial and cyber risks under uncertainty.
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks ve…
Study uses copulas and DCC-GARCH for multivariate risk analysis of VaR and CVaR.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
Extends return risk measures to multiple assets, proving properties and comparing different risk models.
The study models and values CAT bonds across multiple regions.
The study examines how choice of risk measure and volatility estimator affects procyclicality.
FedRD improves risk difference estimation in federated learning for clinical outcomes.
This paper takes a deep learning approach to understand consumer credit risk when e-commerce platforms issue unsecured credit to finance customers' purchase. The "NeuCredit" model can capture both serial dependences in multi-dimensional time series data when event frequencies in each dimension differ. It also captures …
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference between the values at risk VaR(L) and VaR(L+S) for heavy tailed random variables L and S for application in sensitivity analysis of quantitative operational risk management within the framework of the advanced measurement approach of Basel II (and III). Here L describe…
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
Different models of capital exchange among economic agents have been proposed recently trying to explain the emergence of Pareto's wealth power law distribution. One important factor to be considered is the existence of risk aversion. In this paper we study a model where agents posses different levels of risk aversion,…
Develops methods to control risk in ordinal classification tasks.
Study shows equivalence of four risk constraints in non-concave optimization problems.
Risk-averse reinforcement learning optimizes option hedging.
Paper presents a dynamic tail risk protection strategy using ML and econometrics.
We refine Expected Shortfall by controlling different tail portions, offering tailored risk assessments.
We develop a new approach to solving classification problems, which is bases on the theory of coherent measures of risk and risk sharing ideas. The proposed approach aims at designing a risk-averse classifier. The new approach allows for associating distinct risk functional to each classes. The risk may be measured by …
A new measure quantifies how risk-averse different risk measures are.
This paper extends risk parity to continuous-time, solving risk budgeting problems.
New approach minimizes tail risk in option hedging.
Paper provides new bounds for risk aggregation and sharing.
To understand the relationship between news sentiment and company stock price movements, and to better understand connectivity among companies, we define an algorithm for measuring sentiment-based network risk. The algorithm ranks companies in networks of co-occurrences, and measures sentiment-based risk, by calculatin…
We discuss the difference between locally risk-minimizing and delta hedging strategies for exponential Lévy models, where delta hedging strategies in this paper are defined under the minimal martingale measure. We give firstly model-independent upper estimations for the difference. In addition we show numerical example…
The location-based social network, Foursquare, reflects the human activities of a city. The mobility dynamics inferred from Foursquare helps us understanding urban social events like crime In this paper, we propose a directed graph from the aggregated movement between regions using Foursquare data. We derive region ris…
Study shows house buyers in Christchurch value earthquake risk differently based on time since 2011 quake.
Paper presents ERM with -divergence regularization and its properties.
This paper contains an overview of results for dynamic multivariate risk measures. We provide the main results of four different approaches. We will prove under which assumptions results within these approaches coincide, and how properties like primal and dual representation and time consistency in the different approa…
Study tests if deep hedging differs from delta hedging in a GARCH market model.
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease that often results in multiple complications. Risk prediction and profiling of T2DM complications is critical for healthcare professionals to design personalized treatment plans for patients in diabetes care for improved outcomes. In this paper, we study the risk of …
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
Optimizes insurance pricing to minimize ruin probability under various claim dependencies.
A new option pricing model handles non-constant risk aversion and transaction costs.
Optimal capital allocation between different assets is an important financial problem, which is generally framed as the portfolio optimization problem. General models include the single-period and multi-period cases. The traditional Mean-Variance model introduced by Harry Markowitz has been the basis of many models use…
A blockchain replaces central counterparties with time-consuming consensus protocols to record the transfer of ownership. This settlement latency slows cross-exchange trading, exposing arbitrageurs to price risk. Off-chain settlement, instead, exposes arbitrageurs to costly default risk. We show with Bitcoin network an…
Value adjustment of uncollateralized trades is determined within a risk-neutral pricing framework. When hedging such trades, investors cannot freely trade protection on their own name, thus facing an incomplete market. This fact is reflected in the non-uniqueness of the pricing measure, which is only constrained by the…