In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean- portfolio we compute portfolio's Profit and Loss series and corresponded risk measures curves. Value-…
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48 results for “risk curves”
The work deals with the risk assessment theory. An unitary risk algorithm is elaborated. The algorithm is based on parallel curves. The basic curve of risk is a hyperbolic curve, obtained as a multiplication between the probability of occurrence of certain event and its impact. Section 1 contains the problem formulatio…
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.
problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
This study proves new financial market theorems breaking standard risk definitions.
problem Breaking standard risk definitions in financial markets.
method Presenting proofs for new financial market theorems.
result New definitions are richer and broader than standard ones considering shape.
Plotting a learner's average performance against the number of training samples results in a learning curve. Studying such curves on one or more data sets is a way to get to a better understanding of the generalization properties of this learner. The behavior of learning curves is, however, not very well understood and…
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
problem Inconsistency in pricing zero-coupon bonds and equity markets.
method Unified term structure of interest rates framework using put-call parity.
result Option-implied yield curves closely match treasury par yield curves.
We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship…
This study models Burundi's bond market yield curve using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
problem Modeling the yield curve of Burundian bond market for financial analytics.
method Collected treasury securities auction reports, computed zero-coupon rates, and applied Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
result Nelson-Siegel model is optimal for Burundian yield curve modeling.
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time-to-maturity buckets, we propose a modelling framework w…
Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiabil…
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
The High Line: Exact Risk and Learning Rate Curves of Stochastic Adaptive Learning Rate Algorithmsmath.OC
Exact risk and learning rate curves derived for adaptive SGD on high-dimensional problems.
problem Analyzing risk and learning rate dynamics in high-dimensional optimization problems.
method Developed a framework to give exact expressions for risk and learning rate curves using ODEs.
result Exact expressions for risk and learning rate curves, with detailed analysis of two adaptive learning rates.
By adopting the polynomial interpolation method, we propose an approach to hedge against the interest-rate risk of the default-free bonds by measuring the nonparallel movement of the yield-curve, such as the translation, the rotation and the twist. The empirical analysis shows that our hedging strategies are comparable…
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
The "double descent" risk curve was proposed to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of variably-parameterized machine learning models. This article provides a precise mathematical analysis for the shape of this curve in two simple data models with the least squares/least norm predictor. Specifi…
Expanding on techniques of concentration of measure, we develop a quantitative framework for modeling liquidity risk using convex risk measures. The fundamental objects of study are curves of the form , where is a convex risk measure and a random variable, and we call such a curve a \emph{liqu…
The paper uses daily bond price data to estimate corporate default spreads, improving credit risk assessment.
problem Outdated credit risk information from quarterly accounting items.
method Adapting classic yield curve estimation methods to corporate bonds, using Bayesian estimation.
result High-frequency credit risk proxy via corporate default spreads improves model stability and prediction uncertainty.
MDS selects assets by combining daily returns and intraday risk curves, improving portfolio performance.
problem High estimation error in large-scale asset selection.
method Metric Dependence Screening (MDS) incorporating high frequency information as object valued data.
result MDS improves portfolio performance over benchmarks by preserving intraday risk dynamics.
Interest-Rate Modelling in Collateralized Markets: Multiple curves, credit-liquidity effects, CCPsq-fin.PR
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
Neural network model improves robustness of mortgage bond yield curve estimation.
problem Overfitting and instability in traditional yield curve estimation methods for small mortgage bond markets.
method Neural network framework with a new loss function for smoothness and stability.
result Empirical results show more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods.
Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
problem Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks settings.
method Uses augmented estimators of the Brier score risk to build and prune regression trees.
result Demonstrates the utility of the proposed methods through simulation studies and real data.
New algorithms avoid non-monotonic risk curves in statistical learning.
problem Non-monotonic behavior of risk curves in statistical learning.
method Derive risk-monotonic algorithms under weak assumptions.
result Risk monotonicity does not necessarily lead to worse excess risk rates.
New study shows how model complexity affects test risk, challenging classical theory.
problem Understanding how test risk scales with model complexity for large over-parametrized deep networks.
method Developed norm-based capacity measures for random features based estimators, providing precise characterization of estimator's norm concentration and test error.
result Predicted learning curve shows a phase transition from under- to over-parameterization, confirming classical U-shaped behavior with appropriate capacity measures.
We propose a multi-factor polynomial framework to model and hedge long-term electricity contracts with delivery period. This framework has several advantages: the computation of forwards, risk premium and correlation between different forwards are fully explicit, and the model can be calibrated to observed electricity …
Over-parameterized CNNs show U-shaped test risk with depth increase.
problem Understanding the impact of depth on test risk in over-parameterized CNNs.
method Empirical image classification experiments and linear regression framework.
result Test risk is U-shaped with increasing depth in over-parameterized CNNs.
We formalize AURC and develop estimators for SC systems.
problem Evaluation of SC systems' performance.
method Formal statistical formulation, Monte Carlo methods, plug-in estimators.
result Plug-in estimators are consistent, with low bias and bounded MSE.
Detects potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools to protect LPs.
problem Detecting and alerting LPs to potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools.
method Constructed metrics based on price and trading data, fine-tuned BOCD algorithm.
result Model detects USDC depeg 5 hours before price dip, with few false alarms.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
Investigates risk measures for DC pension decumulation.
problem Develop optimal decumulation strategies for DC plan holders.
method Formulates decumulation as a control problem, studies risk measures (expected shortfall, linear shortfall, probability of shortfall).
result Optimal controls for expected reward and expected shortfall are identical to those for expected reward and linear shortfall.
Paper proposes embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes in financial bonds.
problem Challenges in finding similar bonds due to overshadowing of categorical non-financial attributes.
method Embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes.
result Improves risk modeling and curve construction via sparse-issuer augmentation.
We present a dialogue on Funding Costs and Counterparty Credit Risk modeling, inclusive of collateral, wrong way risk, gap risk and possible Central Clearing implementation through CCPs. This framework is important following the fact that derivatives valuation and risk analysis has moved from exotic derivatives managed…
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized valuation measure, can be helpful in defining the key market rates underlying th…
Although timely sepsis diagnosis and prompt interventions in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are associated with reduced mortality, early clinical recognition is frequently impeded by non-specific signs of infection and failure to detect signs of sepsis-induced organ dysfunction in a constellation of dynamically cha…
This article presents FVA and CVA of a bilateral derivative in a coherent manner, based on recent developments in fair value accounting and ISDA standards. We argue that a derivative liability, after primary risk factors being hedged, resembles in economics an issued variable funding note, and should be priced at the m…
Paper explores universal rates of ERM in machine learning.
problem Understanding universal learning rates for ERM.
method Analyzes realizable concept classes and ERM principles.
result Four possible universal learning rates by ERM.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Self-training in linear models shows a U-shaped test-risk curve due to signal forgetting and denoising.
problem Understanding the dynamics of iterative self-training in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Derivation of deterministic-equivalent recursions for prediction risk and effective noise, analysis of signal forgetting and denoising effects.
result An optimal early-stopping time is determined, and a U-shaped test-risk curve is observed.
SignSGD analysis quantifies its effects in high dimensions.
problem Understanding signSGD's effects in high-dimensional settings.
method High-dimensional analysis of signSGD, deriving SDE and ODE for risk.
result Quantification of signSGD's effects: effective learning rate, noise compression, diagonal preconditioning, gradient noise reshaping.
Local risk-minimization with multiple assets under illiquidity with applications in energy marketsq-fin.MF
We propose a hedging approach for general contingent claims when liquidity is a concern and trading is subject to transaction cost. Multiple assets with different liquidity levels are available for hedging. Our risk criterion targets a tradeoff between minimizing the risk against fluctuations in the stock price and inc…
Study optimal portfolio choice with risk control for log-returns.
problem Optimal portfolio choice with risk management in continuous-time markets.
method Characterized optimal terminal wealth using concave envelope, derived analytical expressions for optimal wealth and policy, found efficient frontier.
result Efficient frontier is concave curve connecting minimum-risk to growth-optimal portfolios, not a vertical line.
This paper explores leverage staking with stETH, revealing high returns but also significant risks.
problem Leverage staking introduces risks through intensified selling pressure and cascading liquidations.
method Formal framework for leverage staking, stress tests under extreme conditions of stETH devaluation.
result Leverage staking amplifies risks, leading to intensified selling pressure and price declines.
The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset's cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk charact…
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
The paper analyzes high-dimensional kernel regression, showing different risk curves based on data and regularization.
problem Characterizing generalization properties of high-dimensional kernel ridge regression.
method Bias-variance decomposition of the expected excess risk, considering different regularization schemes and data eigen-profiles.
result The risk curve of kernel regression can be double-descent-like, bell-shaped, or monotonic, depending on n, d, and regularization level.
Interest-rate risk is a key factor for property-casualty insurer capital. P&C companies tend to be highly leveraged, with bond holdings much greater than capital. For GAAP capital, bonds are marked to market but liabilities are not, so shifts in the yield curve can have a significant impact on capital. Yield-curve scen…
The paper studies multiple descent in multi-component prediction models.
problem Understanding the risk curves in multi-component prediction models.
method Investigates a 'double random feature model' and 'multiple random feature model' in ridge regression.
result Risk curves of multi-component prediction models can exhibit multiple descents.