A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Quantum method calculates risk contributions in credit portfolios efficiently.
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
The importance of counterparty credit risk to the derivative contracts was demonstrated consistently throughout the financial crisis of 2008. Accurate valuation of Credit value adjustment (CVA) is essential to reflect the economic values of these risks. In the present article, we reviewed several different approaches f…
Researchers calculated EVaR for various distributions using Lambert function.
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is possible to determine quantile-based values-at-risk (VaRs) for the portfolio. An o…
Ownership cost calculation plays an important role in optimal operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids (MGs) in the future power system, known as smart grid. In this paper, a general framework for ownership cost calculation is proposed using uncertainty and risk analyses. Four ownership cost calc…
A new method calculates implied volatilities without using option prices.
In this contribution we consider the overall risk given as the sum of random subrisks in the context of value-at-risk (VaR) based risk calculations. If we assume that the undertaking knows the parametric distribution family subrisk , but does not know the true parameter ve…
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern comput…
This paper identifies and analyzes biases in risk-adjusted index weighting methods, affecting social welfare and market fairness.
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
A new method for calculating risk budgeting portfolios is proposed.
A method for calculating multi-portfolio time consistent multivariate risk measures in discrete time is presented. Market models for assets with transaction costs or illiquidity and possible trading constraints are considered on a finite probability space. The set of capital requirements at each time and state is c…
The study analyzes the accuracy of quantile estimators in risk assessment using tail models.
We consider the class of risk measures associated with optimized certainty equivalents. This class includes several popular examples, such as CV@R and monotone mean-variance. Numerical schemes are developed for the computation of these risk measures using Fourier transform methods. This leads, in particular, to a very …
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
Solves the equity premium puzzle without calibrated values.
The paper analyzes Lending Club's loan applicants to predict default risk.
Paper calculates robust XVA for derivatives under distributional uncertainty using Wasserstein distance.
The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.
This paper calculates risk-dependent centrality of Brazilian stocks, showing rankings vary with external risk and crisis events.
This thesis builds a real-time VaR calculation workflow for crypto derivatives.
We present a general approach to the pricing of products in finance and insurance in the multi-period setting. It is a combination of the utility indifference pricing and optimal intertemporal risk allocation. We give a characterization of the optimal intertemporal risk allocation by a first order condition. Applying t…
The paper introduces a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial applications.
This paper calculates worst-case VaR for financial markets using empirical data and model uncertainty.
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the usual market-risk measure, ie, Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a short-term horizon and …
To understand the relationship between news sentiment and company stock price movements, and to better understand connectivity among companies, we define an algorithm for measuring sentiment-based network risk. The algorithm ranks companies in networks of co-occurrences, and measures sentiment-based risk, by calculatin…
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
The paper provides an algorithm for the risk estimation when a company selects an outsourcing service provider for innovation product. Calculations are based on expert surveys conducted among customers and among providers of outsourcing. The surveys assessed the degree of materiality of species at risk.
Regulatory requirements dictate that financial institutions must calculate risk capital (funds that must be retained to cover future losses) at least annually. Procedures for doing this have been well-established for many years, but recent developments in the treatment of conduct risk (the risk of loss due to the relat…
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed in finitely many steps. The methods are illustrated by numerical examples.
AI measures financial risk using linear quantile lasso regression.
Quasi-Monte Carlo speeds up option Greeks calculation on GPUs.
Study proposes framework for cyber bonds to compensate cyber attack losses.
Paper calculates robust FVA for OTC derivatives under distributional uncertainty.
The study highlights the importance of Wrong-Way Risk in FVA calculations during financial market turmoil.
This research develops a new model for cyber risk and insurance pricing.
Proposes a new model to better handle correlation risk in credit risk calculations.
The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and sho…
In the study of investment problem, aside from the investment risk the background risk appears. Both the investment risk and the background risk are probabilistically described by random variables. This paper starts from the hypothesis that the two types of risk can be represented both probabilistically (by random vari…
In practice daily volatility of portfolio returns is transformed to longer holding periods by multiplying by the square-root of time which assumes that returns are not serially correlated. Under this assumption this procedure of scaling can also be applied to contributions to volatility of the assets in the portfolio. …
Dynamic risk assessment method for WUI fires improves upon static frameworks.
Study calculates Bayes risk for semi-supervised learning with uncertain labels.
Financial institutions now face the important challenge of having to do multiple portfolio revaluations for their risk computation. The list is almost endless: from XVAs to FRTB, stress testing programs, etc. These computations require from several hundred up to a few million revaluations. The cost of implementing thes…
Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including tractability, scenario relevance and robustness, we consider theoretical properties of…
In this paper analytic formulas for electricity derivatives are calculated. To this end, we assume that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition matrix. Since the classical derivatives pricing methodology cannot be used in case of …
We introduce a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns, as parsimonous as the Gaussian framework. Using calculation techniques of functional integration and Feynman diagrams borrowed from particle physics, we characterize precisely, through its cumulants of high order, the d…