A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper identifies and critiques problems with risk matrices using ordinal scales.
A new algorithm avoids worst-case outcomes in risky contexts.
Paper improves VaR risk allocation by avoiding zero probability events.
Machine learning competition predicts spacecraft collision risks.
We study the performance of various agent strategies in an artificial investment scenario. Agents are equipped with a budget, , and at each time step invest a particular fraction, , of their budget. The return on investment (RoI), , is characterized by a periodic function with different types and leve…
Paper converts quantiles to cumulative distribution functions to simplify risk measures.
This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application t…
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…
New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.
New method decomposes profits and losses continuously, avoiding discrete reporting issues.
New algorithms avoid non-monotonic risk curves in statistical learning.
Researchers found that avoiding synthetic data generation prevents model collapse in machine learning.
In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities which are derived from it. Since there is a linear dependency of the variance an…
Paper studies pricing and hedging of nonreplicable insurance contracts using benchmark-neutral approach.
Combines VaR and ES forecasts for cryptocurrency market risk management.
This work builds a hedging mechanism for experimental risk.
We propose an approach to the aggregation of risks which is based on estimation of simple quantities (such as covariances) associated to a vector of dependent random variables, and which avoids the use of parametric families of copulae. Our main result demonstrates that the method leads to bounds on the worst case Valu…
We propose a new methodology based on the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula to model cross-border systemic risk. The proposed framework estimates the impact of the systematic and idiosyncratic components on systemic risk. Initially, we propose a maximum-likelihood method to estimate the parameter of the MO copula. In order to…
Develops RL for dynamic risk assessment in stochastic optimization.
SafeMIL learns safer policies by avoiding risky behavior from non-preferred trajectories.
Extends return risk measures to multiple assets, proving properties and comparing different risk models.
Monetary risk measures are usually interpreted as the smallest amount of external capital that must be added to a financial position to make it acceptable. We propose a new concept: intrinsic risk measures and argue that this approach provides a direct path from unacceptable positions towards the acceptance set. Intrin…
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiabil…
We use the P&L on a particular class of swaps, representing variance and higher moments for log returns, as estimators in our empirical study on the S&P500 that investigates the factors determining variance and higher-moment risk premia. This class is the discretisation invariant sub-class of swaps with Neuberger's agg…
Foster and Hart proposed an operational measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. We show that their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions including many uniform distributions, e.g. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variabl…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the resulting estimation error hinders the detection of a signal. We present statist…
In this paper, we study a risk process modeled by a Brownian motion with drift (the diffusion approximation model). The insurance entity can purchase reinsurance to lower its risk and receive cash injections at discrete times to avoid ruin. Proportional reinsurance and excess-of-loss reinsurance are considered. The obj…
NICE learns a representation to avoid bad controls in causal inference.
Study uses healthcare claims data to identify Covid-19 risk factors without prior selection.
Dynamic rule-based investment strategies outperform static ones in pension schemes.
Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for social lending consider imbalanced data and, further, the best resampling technique t…
We show that model compression can improve the population risk of a pre-trained model, by studying the tradeoff between the decrease in the generalization error and the increase in the empirical risk with model compression. We first prove that model compression reduces an information-theoretic bound on the generalizati…
CAESar improves risk forecasting by combining VaR and ES estimates.
Study optimizes sampling to avoid extreme tail risks in unknown heavy-tailed distributions.
Improved probabilistic forecasts using behavioral transformations.
Using Jeff Holman's comments in Quantitative Finance to illustrate 4 critical errors students should learn to avoid: 1) Mistaking tails (4th moment) for volatility (2nd moment), 2) Missing Jensen's Inequality, 3) Analyzing the hedging wihout the underlying, 4) The necessity of a numeraire in finance.
Online surveillance detects systemic risk in financial markets.
The paper uses EVT to improve tail risk measures under ambiguity sets.
Study improves summarization reliability in risky scenarios.
New approach avoids excess empirical risk in domain generalization.
Most classification methods provide either a prediction of class membership or an assessment of class membership probability. In the case of two-group classification the predicted probability can be described as "risk" of belonging to a "special" class . When the required output is a set of ordinal-risk groups, a discr…
Model financial network dynamics to avoid systemic risk.
A new method for calculating risk budgeting portfolios is proposed.
This paper optimizes decarbonized indices for financial tracking, balancing risk and environmental impact.
The 2008 mortgage crisis is an example of an extreme event. Extreme value theory tries to estimate such tail risks. Modern finance practitioners prefer Expected Shortfall based risk metrics (which capture tail risk) over traditional approaches like volatility or even Value-at-Risk. This paper provides a quantum anneali…
AI algorithms outperform traditional trading methods in stock markets.
New risk measure and quadrangle improve financial decision-making.