BayesMR estimates causal effects and directionality from genetic data.
problem Challenges in finding good genetic instruments and estimating causal effects.
method Bayesian Mendelian randomization approach that accounts for pleiotropy and reverse causation.
result BayesMR provides a posterior distribution over causal effects and uncertainty.
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
Efficiently constructs sparse ROMs for high-dimensional data using causation entropy.
problem Creating effective reduced-order models for high-dimensional dynamical data.
method Uses causation entropy to identify important terms and construct ROMs with varying sparsity.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of causation entropy in constructing sparse ROMs for chaotic systems with skewed statistics.
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
problem Estimating probabilities of causation requires unreliable or impractical experimental and observational data.
method Proposed Exact-MLP and Mask-MLP models trained on reliable subpopulations.
result Models achieve average MAEs of roughly 0.03, reducing MAE by 80%.
Proposes PEID for analyzing synergistic causation in complex systems.
problem Challenges in identifying and analyzing synergistic causation in complex systems.
method Partial Effective Information Decomposition (PEID) framework.
result Unified and computable characterization of synergistic causal relations.
New PEMs improve network inference from time-series data.
problem Causal inference from time-series data with trade-off between accuracy and feasibility.
method Infer networks via process motifs for lagged correlation in linear stochastic processes.
result Proposed PEMs achieve high accuracy and efficiency in network inference.
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
Study shows gaps in Bitcoin order book are linked to returns but only in the short term.
problem Understanding the relationship between gaps and returns in Bitcoin order books.
method Examined the dynamics of gaps and returns in a Bitcoin order book without considering long-term causation.
result The causal relationship between gaps and returns is limited to instantaneous causation.
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.
AI models forget statistics' lesson: correlation doesn't imply causation.
problem AI models often produce flawed causal models due to ignoring correlation vs causation.
method Demonstrates examples of flawed AI models and proposes rethinking core models.
result Current efforts to make AI models ethical are insufficient.
Paper proposes learning causal graphs with only relevant variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in large-scale graphs often includes irrelevant variables.
method Developed NSCSL algorithm to learn necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG).
result NSCSL algorithm identifies relevant causal features for specific outcomes.
A simple guide to understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
problem Understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
method Formalizing hierarchical causality in terms of actors and agents, with three key structures.
result The system requires three additional structures: causation classes, aggregation operators, and discrete event-time maps.
Neural Shadow-Mapping uncovers causal links in dynamic systems.
problem Discovering causal structures in dynamic systems with mirage correlations.
method Neural network based method embedding high-dimensional data into a shadow representation for causal link estimation.
result Demonstrates performance in discovering causal links from video-representations of dynamic systems.
We are interested in learning causal relationships between pairs of random variables, purely from observational data. To effectively address this task, the state-of-the-art relies on strong assumptions regarding the mechanisms mapping causes to effects, such as invertibility or the existence of additive noise, which on…
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emerged as a rich source of genetic clues into disease biology, and they have revealed strong genetic correlations among many diseases and traits. Some of these genetic correlations may reflect causal relationships. We developed a method to quantify causal relationships betwe…
CausalBench aims to advance causal learning research with a transparent platform.
problem Lack of unified benchmark datasets, algorithms, metrics, and evaluation interfaces for causal learning.
method Introduces CausalBench, a flexible benchmark framework for causal analysis and machine learning.
result Promotes scientific collaboration, reproducibility, and awareness in causal learning research.
New causal distances improve evaluation of causal discovery algorithms.
problem Evaluating causal discovery algorithms using graphical distances is limited.
method Defined causal distances based on causal distributions rather than graphical structure.
result Improved evaluation of causal discovery algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Counterfactual diagnosis improves medical accuracy and safety.
problem Existing diagnostic algorithms struggle with distinguishing correlation from causation.
method Reformulated diagnosis as a counterfactual inference task and derived new counterfactual diagnostic algorithms.
result Counterfactual diagnostic algorithms significantly improve accuracy and safety compared to standard Bayesian algorithms.
Tensor-based method simplifies causal skeleton discovery.
problem Discover causal relationships between variables.
method Express associations as tensors to reduce dimensionality.
result Causal skeleton can be determined using pair-wise tensors.
A novel framework infers causal direction from symbolic sequences using pattern entropy.
problem Challenges in discovering causal direction from temporal symbolic data.
method Dictionary Based Pattern Entropy (DPE) framework integrating AIT and Shannon Information Theory. result Minimizing pattern level uncertainty yields a robust framework for causal discovery.
Classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in quaternionic groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in quaternionic groups.
method Proves elements are reversible if and only if they are products of skew-involutions (resp. involutions).
result Proves elements are reversible if and only if they are products of skew-involutions (resp. involutions).
The paper classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in Hermitian isometry groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in Hermitian isometry groups.
method Classification through group theory and algebraic manipulation.
result New classification of strongly reversible elements in Sp(n).
Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs (DAGs), where the joint distribution in a population follows a DAG at any single…
This paper classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
method Identifying affine transformations and using conjugacy by involutions.
result Classification of reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
New neural net learns time-reversible symplectic dynamics.
problem Lack of time-reversibility in neural networks for symplectic systems.
method Proposes a new neural network architecture for time-reversible symplectic systems.
result Demonstrates learning of time-reversible symplectic dynamics from data.
A new trading strategy using reinforcement learning for statistical arbitrage.
problem Traditional statistical arbitrage models rely on model assumptions and price deviations from a long-term mean.
method Empirical reversion time metric, reinforcement learning framework, and state space optimization.
result Optimal mean reversion strategy identified through reinforcement learning.
Algebraic method reveals criterion for quaternionic Möbius group reversibility.
problem Characterizing reversibility in quaternionic Möbius group elements.
method Purely algebraic approach using matrix entries and conjugacy invariants.
result Explicit criterion for reversibility in terms of matrix entries.
Recent studies have shown that online portfolio selection strategies that exploit the mean reversion property can achieve excess return from equity markets. This paper empirically investigates the performance of state-of-the-art mean reversion strategies on real market data. The aims of the study are twofold. The first…
Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to characterize social influence, and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on…
A Finsler space is said to be geodesically reversible if each oriented geodesic can be reparametrized as a geodesic with the reverse orientation. A reversible Finsler space is geodesically reversible, but the converse need not be true. In this note, building on recent work of LeBrun and Mason, it is shown that a geodes…
Sharp stability results for reverse isoperimetric inequalities in 2D.
problem Reverse isoperimetric inequalities in the plane.
method Stability analysis of λ-convex bodies and convex bodies with smooth boundaries. result Sharp stability results for reverse isoperimetric inequalities, including inradius and Cheeger inequalities.
Let G be a group. An element g in G is called reversible if it is conjugate to g−1 within G, and called strongly reversible if it is conjugate to its inverse by an order two element of G. Let HHn be the n-dimensional quaternionic hyperbolic space. Let PSp(n,1) be the i…
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
Boundary rigidity proven for non-reversible Finsler metrics.
problem Recovering non-reversible Finsler metrics from boundary distance data.
method Sum of reversible Finsler norm and closed 1-form, boundary rigidity results.
result 1-form can be uniquely recovered from boundary distance data.
Conditional diffusion models can approximate target distributions well with Gaussian-mixture reverse kernels.
problem Approximating target distributions in conditional diffusion models.
method Using finite Gaussian mixtures with ReLU-network logits as reverse kernels, reducing the problem to static conditional density approximation.
result The resulting neural reverse-kernel class is dense in conditional KL divergence under exact terminal matching.
Reverse Experience Replay improves Deep Q-learning for sparse rewards.
problem Sparse rewards and reward-maximizing tasks in Deep Q-learning.
method Sampling transitions in reverse order for training.
result Significantly increased performance in tasks with limited experience and memory capacity.
New knots not rationally concordant to their reverses found.
problem Identifying knots not rationally concordant to their reverses.
method Infinite family of knots constructed, rational knot concordance group analyzed.
result Infinite rank subgroup in rational knot concordance group.
The paper classifies reversible elements in Seifert-fibered spaces and braid groups.
problem Classifying reversible elements in Seifert-fibered spaces and braid groups.
method Classification of reversible elements in Fuchsian groups, application to Seifert-fibered groups, and analysis of 3-torsion elements.
result Classification and analysis of reversible and 3-torsion elements in Seifert-fibered spaces and braid groups.
Reverse annealing boosts quantum matrix factorization performance.
problem Improving quantum matrix factorization performance.
method Combining forward and reverse annealing for nonnegative/binary matrix factorization.
result Combination of forward and reverse annealing significantly improves performance.
Method infers causal direction using data discretization and complexity calculation.
problem Determining causal direction between continuous variables.
method MDL Binning technique for data discretization and complexity calculation.
result Captures the shape of the data to determine causal direction.
We study the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of financial market crashes (Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette [2000] "Crashes as Critical Points." Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finan. 3(2) 219-255). On our view, the JLS model is a curious case from the perspective of the recent philosophy of science literature, as it is natural…
TRS-ODENs learn dynamics with time-reversal symmetry for more efficient learning.
problem Learning dynamics with time-reversal symmetry for more efficient learning.
method Proposed a loss function and a new framework (TRS-ODENs) to learn dynamics efficiently.
result TRS-ODENs can learn dynamics from noisy and complex trajectories efficiently.
Paper proves rigidity theorems for geodesically reversible Finsler metrics.
problem Understanding geodesically reversible Finsler metrics in closed manifolds.
method Applied theory of volumes and areas on Finsler spaces to establish rigidity theorems.
result Partial explanation of the scarcity of geodesically reversible Finsler metrics in closed manifolds.
Reduces identity testing of reversible Markov chains to simpler symmetric chain tests.
problem Testing identity of reversible Markov chains from a single trajectory.
method Using lumping-congruent Markov embeddings, the problem is simplified to testing symmetric chains over a larger state space.
result Achieves state-of-the-art sample complexity for identity testing.
Proof of reverse isoperimetric inequality for black holes.
problem Reverse isoperimetric inequality for black holes in Einstein gravity.
method Geometric-analytic approach.
result Reversal of the usual isoperimetric inequality is explained by curved backgrounds governed by Einstein's equations.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
Proposes Causal Loss to improve machine learning models' causal inference.
problem Machine learning algorithms often fail to capture causal relationships when data is inconsistent.
method Introduces Causal Loss, a model-agnostic loss function that enhances interventional capabilities.
result Causal Loss improves non-causal associative models to have interventional capabilities.