Inferring causal interactions from observed data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of measurement noise. To alleviate the problem of spurious causality, Haufe et al. (2013) proposed to contrast measures of information flow obtained on the original data against the same measures obtained on time-rever…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “reverse causality”
Paper proposes mechanism learning to reverse causal inference in ML.
problem Machine learning models learn associational, not causal, relationships.
method Causally weighted Gaussian mixture models (CW-GMMs).
result CW-GMMs can deconfound observational data for reverse causal inference.
BayesMR estimates causal effects and directionality from genetic data.
problem Challenges in finding good genetic instruments and estimating causal effects.
method Bayesian Mendelian randomization approach that accounts for pleiotropy and reverse causation.
result BayesMR provides a posterior distribution over causal effects and uncertainty.
A new sampler improves the inference of causal structures from observational data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data when DAGs are Markov equivalent.
method Developed a non-reversible Markov chain, Causal Zig-Zag sampler, targeting Markov Equivalence Classes of DAGs.
result The sampler improves mixing and offers efficient algorithms for DAG inference.
New method learns distribution shifts caused by predictive models in social computing.
problem Learning distribution shifts due to predictive models in social computing.
method Reverse causal model with microfoundation for agents' actions.
result Effective in minimizing performative prediction risk.
GaussDetect-LiNGAM eliminates Gaussianity tests for causal discovery.
problem Causal direction identification without Gaussianity assumptions.
method Leverages the equivalence between noise Gaussianity and residual independence in reverse regression.
result Gaussianity tests replaced with robust kernel-based independence tests.
The paper proposes methods to extract and analyze individual variable information from complex dependencies.
problem Analyzing and understanding complex dependencies between multiple variables.
method Reversible normalization and iterative dependency reduction to extract individual information, and use it for direct mutual information and multi-feature Granger causality analysis.
result Decoupling of variables to analyze their individual information and direct mutual information transfers.
Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear Gaussian network or a discrete Bayes network, then every unambiguous causal conclusion produced by a consistent method f…
We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly depends on the direction of the arrow of time. In ideal (synthetic) conditions, test…
ACI uses Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes from effects in complex systems.
problem Capturing instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Assimilative causal inference (ACI) leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects.
result ACI provides online tracking of causal roles that may reverse intermittently and reveals how far effects propagate.
New PEMs improve network inference from time-series data.
problem Causal inference from time-series data with trade-off between accuracy and feasibility.
method Infer networks via process motifs for lagged correlation in linear stochastic processes.
result Proposed PEMs achieve high accuracy and efficiency in network inference.
We introduce a framework to infer lead-lag networks between the states of elements of complex systems, determined at different timescales. As such networks encode the causal structure of a system, infering lead-lag networks for many pairs of timescales provides a global picture of the mutual influence between timescale…
New criteria distinguish cause from effect in data, overcoming statistical limitations.
problem Determining causal direction from statistical dependence alone.
method Intuitive criteria based on simplicity of prediction, tested on synthetic data.
result Criteria accurately distinguish cause from effect in various scenarios.
Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
Causal Deep Learningcs.LG
Causal deep learning tackles causal inference using tensor factor analysis.
problem Addressing causal questions in data using neural networks.
method Tensor factor analysis and neural network architectures (causal capsules, tensor transformer, multilinear projection algorithm).
result Derives deep neural networks for causal inference with tensor factor analysis.
Cycles in causal learning cause feedback loops under intervention.
problem Cyclic causal structures lead to feedback loops in causal inference.
method Theoretical observations about self-referential distributions and their factorizations.
result Cyclic causal dependence can exist even when observational data suggest independence.
DDCD uses diffusion models to learn causal structures from noisy data.
problem Scalability and stability issues in high-dimensional causal structure learning.
method Adaptive k-hop acyclicity constraint and denoising score matching objective of diffusion models.
result DDCD achieves competitive performance on synthetic and real-world data.
Enhances RL in partially observable, noisy environments by uncovering causal states.
problem Making decisions based on incomplete and noisy observations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs).
method Causal State Representation under Asynchronous Diffusion Model (CaDiff) framework, incorporating a novel asynchronous diffusion model (ADM) and a new bisimulation metric.
result Enhances returns by at least 14.18% compared to baselines on Roboschool tasks.
A new diffusion model encodes causal structures for better interventional sampling and edge inference.
problem Lack of causal analysis in standard diffusion models.
method Causality-encoded diffusion framework that trains conditional models consistent with a directed acyclic graph.
result The method enables accurate interventional sampling and edge inference, with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.
This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we sh…
Circumventing the Curse of Dimensionality in Prediction: Causal Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processescond-mat.stat-mech
Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on fi…
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.
TRA detects causal direction from bivariate data using geometric shapes.
problem Inferring causal direction from observational data is challenging and unreliable.
method TRA compares rank-based copula-standardized residual clouds to detect causal direction.
result TRA is robust and superior in detecting causal direction across various scenarios.
We develop a method to summarize causal models with cycles in cubic time.
problem Cycles in high-dimensional causal models limit applicability of existing methods.
method We relax the acyclicity assumption in LiNG models and develop a low-dimensional DAG summary.
result Our method allows recovery of a low-dimensional DAG from high-dimensional data with cycles.
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.
We give the details of the proof of the equality between the critical groups, with respect the H^1 and C^1 topology, at a non-degenerate critical point of the energy functional of a non-reversible Finsler manifold (M,F), defined on the Hilbert manifold of the H^1 curves connecting two given points on M.
Graphical models are popular statistical tools which are used to represent dependent or causal complex systems. Statistically equivalent causal or directed graphical models are said to belong to a Markov equivalent class. It is of great interest to describe and understand the space of such classes. However, with curren…
Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables and , we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between and . In particular, we consider the general case where both and may be univariate or multivariate, and of the same or mixed data types. We take an inf…
New method for robust financial portfolio analysis.
problem Challenges in modeling financial portfolio dependence structure.
method Nonparametric Angles-based Correlation (NAbC) method.
result Valid inferences and flexible scenarios for portfolio analysis.
Pseudo-timelike loops in signature changing semi-Riemannian manifolds with a transverse radicalmath.DG
New loops found in universe's timeline, challenging traditional time direction.
problem Signature changing spacetimes and time origins.
method Developed framework for signature changing manifolds, adapted Lorentzian tools.
result Pseudo-timelike loops exist in every point on the time origin hypersurface.
We establish that over a C^{2,1} manifold the exponential map of any Lipschitz connection or spray determines a local Lipeomophism and that, furthermore, reversible convex normal neighborhoods do exist. To that end we use the method of Picard-Lindelof approximation to prove the strong differentiability of the exponenti…
Develops a new approach for algorithmic recourse in AI systems.
problem Tackles the problem of providing recommendations for reversing negative AI decisions.
method Introduces a causal framework that models recourse as a process over pre- and post-intervention outcomes, allowing for partial stability and resampling of latent variables.
result Demonstrates the value of the proposed methods on real and semi-synthetic datasets.
Inferring the causal structure of a set of random variables from a finite sample of the joint distribution is an important problem in science. Recently, methods using additive noise models have been suggested to approach the case of continuous variables. In many situations, however, the variables of interest are discre…
We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hi…
It is usual to consider data protection and learnability as conflicting objectives. This is not always the case: we show how to jointly control inference --- seen as the attack --- and learnability by a noise-free process that mixes training examples, the Crossover Process (cp). One key point is that the cp~is typicall…
Classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in quaternionic groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in quaternionic groups.
method Proves elements are reversible if and only if they are products of skew-involutions (resp. involutions).
result Proves elements are reversible if and only if they are products of skew-involutions (resp. involutions).
The paper classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in Hermitian isometry groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in Hermitian isometry groups.
method Classification through group theory and algebraic manipulation.
result New classification of strongly reversible elements in Sp(n).
We study the cross-correlation matrix of inventory variations of the most active individual and institutional investors in an emerging market to understand the dynamics of inventory variations. We find that the distribution of cross-correlation coefficient has a power-law form in the bulk followed by …
Learning causal effects from many randomized experiments using regularized instrumental variablesstat.ML
Scientific and business practices are increasingly resulting in large collections of randomized experiments. Analyzed together, these collections can tell us things that individual experiments in the collection cannot. We study how to learn causal relationships between variables from the kinds of collections faced by m…
This paper classifies reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
problem Classifying reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
method Identifying affine transformations and using conjugacy by involutions.
result Classification of reversible and strongly reversible elements in affine groups.
Sense and Sensitivity Analysis: Simple Post-Hoc Analysis of Bias Due to Unobserved Confoundingstat.ME
Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.
problem Bias in causal estimates due to unobserved confounding.
method Formalizes confounding strength, uses Austen plots to visualize and quantify bias.
result Allows domain experts to assess the plausibility of strong confounders.
New neural net learns time-reversible symplectic dynamics.
problem Lack of time-reversibility in neural networks for symplectic systems.
method Proposes a new neural network architecture for time-reversible symplectic systems.
result Demonstrates learning of time-reversible symplectic dynamics from data.
A new trading strategy using reinforcement learning for statistical arbitrage.
problem Traditional statistical arbitrage models rely on model assumptions and price deviations from a long-term mean.
method Empirical reversion time metric, reinforcement learning framework, and state space optimization.
result Optimal mean reversion strategy identified through reinforcement learning.
Algebraic method reveals criterion for quaternionic Möbius group reversibility.
problem Characterizing reversibility in quaternionic Möbius group elements.
method Purely algebraic approach using matrix entries and conjugacy invariants.
result Explicit criterion for reversibility in terms of matrix entries.
Recent studies have shown that online portfolio selection strategies that exploit the mean reversion property can achieve excess return from equity markets. This paper empirically investigates the performance of state-of-the-art mean reversion strategies on real market data. The aims of the study are twofold. The first…
A Finsler space is said to be geodesically reversible if each oriented geodesic can be reparametrized as a geodesic with the reverse orientation. A reversible Finsler space is geodesically reversible, but the converse need not be true. In this note, building on recent work of LeBrun and Mason, it is shown that a geodes…
Market stability depends on a fundamental value anchor, not price crashes.
problem Stability of order-book markets under fundamental anchoring.
method Analytical model and empirical analysis of six transmission channels.
result Fundamental anchoring stabilizes markets by mean-reverting prices and refilling books; removing the anchor leads to market failure.
Sharp stability results for reverse isoperimetric inequalities in 2D.
problem Reverse isoperimetric inequalities in the plane.
method Stability analysis of -convex bodies and convex bodies with smooth boundaries.
result Sharp stability results for reverse isoperimetric inequalities, including inradius and Cheeger inequalities.