Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
problem Lack of accurate demand forecasting due to incomplete data.
method Enriched time series data with macroeconomic variables; compared regression and machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy in predicting retail demand through comprehensive data integration.
A new model predicts fashion demand 6-12 months ahead, boosting retailer profits.
problem Accurate demand forecasting for fashion retailers with short product life cycles.
method Product age-based forecast model, incorporating unique feature engineering.
result Significant revenue uplift of 41% compared to retailer's plan.
Less frequent retraining improves forecast accuracy in retail demand forecasting.
problem Balancing forecast accuracy and computational efficiency in global models.
method Analysis of ten machine learning and deep learning models across two large retail datasets with various retraining scenarios.
result Less frequent retraining strategies maintain forecast accuracy while reducing computational costs.
LSTMs improve demand forecasting for e-grocery products.
problem Improving demand forecasting accuracy in e-grocery retail.
method Developed and tested univariate and multivariate LSTM models for 100 fast-moving consumer goods.
result LSTMs outperform traditional models for food products, especially in beverage category.
Improved forecast accuracy for Knitwear by 20% using adaptive AI/ML model.
problem Low accuracy in demand forecasts for Knitwear product category.
method Dynamic selection of the best algorithm from an algorithm rack based on performance and context.
result Increased forecast accuracy from 60% to 80% for Knitwear.
The M5 competition tackles overdispersed retail sales forecasting with GAMLSS.
problem Overdispersed and zero-inflated retail sales data.
method Distributional forecasting using GAMLSS framework.
result GAMLSS provides better probabilistic forecasting for count data.
SPADE improves demand forecasting accuracy by 4.5% for post-promotion periods.
problem Overreacting to peak events in demand forecasting leads to biased forecasts.
method SPADE splits forecasting into two tasks: one for peak events and another for post-peak events, using masked convolution filters and a specialized Peak Attention module.
result Overall PPE improvement of 4.5%, 30% improvement for most affected forecasts after promotions and holidays, and 3.9% improvement in PE accuracy.
Paper proposes a new method for demand forecasting in pricing contexts.
problem Demand forecasting in pricing contexts, especially in a profit optimal manner.
method Combines Double Machine Learning for causal inference and transformer-based forecasting models.
result Our method outperforms other forecasting methods in off-policy settings.
Graph Neural Networks improve demand forecasting by considering article relationships.
problem Forecasting independent article-level predictions without considering related articles.
method Integrating GNN encoder into DeepAR model and using article attribute similarity to build graphs.
result The proposed approach consistently outperforms non-graph benchmarks and produces useful article embeddings.
New method improves sales forecasting accuracy using tensor factorization.
problem Improving sales forecasting accuracy in retail businesses.
method Advanced Temporal Latent-factor Approach to Sales forecasting (ATLAS) using tensor factorization.
result Accurate and individualized prediction for sales across multiple stores and products.
One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product attributes, and supply network. In this paper, our goal is to develop robust demand pr…
A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.
problem Sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence in intermittent demand forecasting.
method Hierarchical Bayesian TSB model with partial pooling and calibrated probabilistic configuration.
result TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE on the UCI Online Retail dataset.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
Accurate demand forecasts can help on-line retail organizations better plan their supply-chain processes. The challenge, however, is the large number of associative factors that result in large, non-stationary shifts in demand, which traditional time series and regression approaches fail to model. In this paper, we pro…
Paper evaluates synthetic retail data for fidelity, utility, and privacy.
problem Ensuring accurate synthetic data in retail.
method Differentiates between continuous and discrete data, measures fidelity and utility, and uses Differential Privacy for privacy.
result Validated framework for reliable and scalable synthetic data evaluation.
Retail company uses Prophet algorithm for accurate sales forecasting.
problem Accurate sales forecasting in the retail industry.
method Facebook's Prophet algorithm and backtesting strategy.
result Framework demonstrates real-world use case capabilities.
Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.
problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.
Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this pap…
This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.
problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.
This paper improves sales forecasting on Tmall using Fourier decomposition and Tweedie distribution optimization.
problem Sales forecasting for retailers on Tmall.
method Fourier decomposition for seasonality extraction and Tweedie distribution optimization.
result Improved sales forecasting results using optimized models.
This paper monetizes customer load data to boost energy retailer profits.
problem Improving load forecasts to reduce energy imbalance costs.
method Cooperative game theory approach to quantify and distribute profits.
result Retailer gains significant profit from customer load data.
Paper uses GANs to simulate consumer transactions with SKU constraints.
problem Simulating realistic consumer transactions in retail systems.
method Integrates GANs with consumer behavior and SKU availability constraints.
result Demonstrates enhanced realism in simulated transactions.
In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the impact of stochastic order lead time on the bullwhip effect is investigated, but th…
ISOMORPH creates a digital twin for supply chain logistics, advancing time-series forecasting benchmarks.
problem Lack of public benchmarks for supply chain logistics time-series forecasting.
method Developed a digital twin simulator with interpretable parameters and modular topology, generating datasets and verifying conservation laws.
result Foundation models achieve MASE values exceeding public benchmarks at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting UQ.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
ARIMA model outperforms advanced forecasting models in predicting Walmart sales.
problem Forecasting volatile retail sales trends with unknown factors.
method Benchmarked traditional ARIMA model against advanced models like Prophet and LightGBM on historical Walmart sales data.
result ARIMA model outperforms LightGBM and achieves computational efficiency.
We propose a Bayesian regression method that accounts for multi-way interactions of arbitrary orders among the predictor variables. Our model makes use of a factorization mechanism for representing the regression coefficients of interactions among the predictors, while the interaction selection is guided by a prior dis…
SPADE-S improves time series forecasting accuracy for low-magnitude and sparse data.
problem Challenges in forecasting time series with strong heterogeneity in magnitude and sparsity.
method SPADE-S is a robust forecasting architecture that reduces biases and improves overall prediction accuracy.
result SPADE-S outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches across diverse use cases, improving forecast accuracy by up to 15%.
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
problem Mismatch between renewable energy supply and consumer demand.
method Formalizes decision-making problem, designs forecasting models, and statistical demand response models.
result Dynamic pricing can synchronise power supply and demand effectively.
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
problem Forecasting sales of new products with short lead times and life cycles.
method Developed an exponential factorization machine (EFM) to consider attributes and pairwise interactions.
result EFM model outperforms existing models in terms of MAPE and MAE.
Improved sales forecasting for new products using transfer learning.
problem Insufficient training data for new products leads to inaccurate sales forecasts.
method Network-based Transfer Learning approach for deep neural networks.
result Deep neural networks' prediction accuracy for food sales forecasting can be effectively increased.
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
New framework estimates demand responses across multiple contexts with limited price variation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous linear price-response functions across multiple contexts with limited price variation and confounding.
method Meta-learning framework that identifies conditional mean of task-specific causal demand parameters given a subset of task-specific observables.
result Improved recovery of demand responses relative to standard transfer-learning baselines.
Gradient boosting predicts promotion efficiency using multiple performance indicators.
problem Forecasting promotion efficiency in FMCG retail.
method Gradient boosting applied to six performance indicators for different product groups.
result Models accurately forecast promotion efficiency, optimizing marketing strategies.
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
problem Accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels for market participants.
method Probabilistic portfolio optimization of residential households' demand using ARMA-GARCH models or KDE forecasts.
result Seasonal Residual approach outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency.
Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the aggregated time series data. From a portfolio of brands under HUUB's monitoring, …
Paper develops privacy-preserving dynamic pricing policy for e-commerce.
problem Protecting customer privacy in dynamic pricing with personalized information.
method Uses differential privacy framework to develop a privacy-preserving policy.
result Achieves both privacy and performance guarantees in dynamic pricing.
A new metric optimizes forecasts for lumpy, intermittent demand.
problem Inaccurate demand forecasts lead to suboptimal logistics and production.
method Developed a novel metric that considers both statistical and business aspects.
result The new metric yields more accurate predictions for lumpy and intermittent demand.
In this paper, we describe a solution to tackle a common set of challenges in e-commerce, which arise from the fact that new products are continually being added to the catalogue. The challenges involve properly personalising the customer experience, forecasting demand and planning the product range. We argue that the …
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measu…
Paper proposes a method for predicting any quantile of short-term electricity demand.
problem Uncertainty in power systems due to multiple factors.
method Proposes a novel general approach for distributional forecasting of short-term electricity demand.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art distributional forecasting results for short-term electricity demand.
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
problem Accurate hourly forecasting of residential heating and electricity demand.
method Probabilistic deep learning models trained on gas-heated region data.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to NREL's ResStock model.
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
problem Booking models ignore supply, leading to regime-specific ceilings.
method Three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention).
result Booking models learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile.
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
Proposes a new model for more accurate demand forecasting considering dynamic contextual information.
problem Traditional methods fail to capture spatio-temporal and dynamic contextual dependencies in demand forecasting.
method Integrates temporal, relational, spatial, and dynamic contextual dependencies using a Context Integrated Graph Neural Network (CIGNN).
result CIGNN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in multi-step ahead demand forecasting.