Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice, as do applications in which the residuals do not have a Gaussian distribution. …
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “residual variance”
We conduct mathematical analysis on the effect of batch normalization (BN) on gradient backpropogation in residual network training, which is believed to play a critical role in addressing the gradient vanishing/explosion problem, in this work. By analyzing the mean and variance behavior of the input and the gradient i…
Residual Component Analysisstat.ML
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise, Sigma = (sigma^2)*I. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situa…
Residual Component Analysis: Generalising PCA for more flexible inference in linear-Gaussian modelscs.LG
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situation where the data v…
A Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares Filter for Real-time UAV Terrain Followingeess.SP
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
problem Analyzing risk metrics and entropies for unimodal, symmetric distributions with limited information.
method Develops lower and upper bounds for worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, symmetric distributions with known mean and variance.
result Sharp upper bounds for distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for symmetric distributions.
Simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit (SOMP) and block OMP (BOMP) are two widely used techniques for sparse support recovery in multiple measurement vector (MMV) and block sparse (BS) models respectively. For optimal performance, both SOMP and BOMP require \textit{a priori} knowledge of signal sparsity or noise vari…
Polynomial-time algorithm learns causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
problem Learning causal graphs from data without assuming linearity or parametric forms.
method Model-free polynomial-time algorithm with finite-sample guarantees.
result Algorithm achieves linear cost in dimension and samples compared to optimal.
In this paper, we propose a novel perturbation-based exploration method in bandit algorithms with bounded or unbounded rewards, called residual bootstrap exploration (\texttt{ReBoot}). The \texttt{ReBoot} enforces exploration by injecting data-driven randomness through a residual-based perturbation mechanism. This nove…
New estimator improves off-policy evaluation for large action spaces.
problem Conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance in off-policy evaluation for large discrete action spaces.
method Proposes OffCEM estimator based on conjunct effect model (CEM), applying importance weighting only to action clusters and using model-based reward estimation for residual effects.
result Proposed estimator is unbiased under local correctness condition, providing substantial improvements in OPE especially with many actions.
NOTEARS fails to identify true causal relationships from data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from observational data.
method NOTEARS aims to identify a parsimonious DAG from data explaining residual variance.
result NOTEARS is not suitable for identifying true causal relationships.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
We identify and study two common failure modes for early training in deep ReLU nets. For each we give a rigorous proof of when it occurs and how to avoid it, for fully connected and residual architectures. The first failure mode, exploding/vanishing mean activation length, can be avoided by initializing weights from a …
Improved multivariate conformal prediction by standardizing residuals.
problem Weak conditional coverage in heteroskedastic multivariate settings.
method Natural extension of univariate normalization to multivariate setting, whitening residuals and standardizing local variance.
result Standardized residuals yield asymptotic conditional coverage under certain distributions.
Sparse Principal Component Analysis (sPCA) is a popular matrix factorization approach based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that combines variance maximization and sparsity with the ultimate goal of improving data interpretation. When moving from PCA to sPCA, there are a number of implications that the practition…
Study tight offline learning bounds for linear MDPs using variance information.
problem Understanding statistical limits with linear function representations in offline reinforcement learning.
method Variance-aware pessimistic value iteration (VAPVI) that reweights Bellman residuals based on estimated variances.
result Improved offline learning bounds expressed in terms of system quantities.
Cause-Effect Inference in Location-Scale Noise Models: Maximum Likelihood vs. Independence Testingcs.LG
Alternative to likelihood-based LSNM model selection, residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
problem Cause-effect inference in location-scale noise models with misspecified noise distributions.
method Residual independence testing as an alternative to likelihood-based model selection.
result Residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
Sharpe Ratio Analysis in High Dimensions: Residual-Based Nodewise Regression in Factor Modelsq-fin.PM
We provide a new theory for nodewise regression when the residuals from a fitted factor model are used. We apply our results to the analysis of the consistency of Sharpe ratio estimators when there are many assets in a portfolio. We allow for an increasing number of assets as well as time observations of the portfolio.…
In Electricity markets, illiquidity, transaction costs and market price characteristics prevent managers to replicate exactly contracts. A residual risk is always present and the hedging strategy depends on a risk criterion chosen. We present an algorithm to hedge a position for a mean variance criterion taking into ac…
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
We improve optimization for data with varying variance.
problem Optimizing data with varying variance.
method Generalized learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven optimization.
result Asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for stochastic programs.
New method for evaluating and learning in complex decision-making scenarios.
problem Evaluating and learning from policies in contextual combinatorial bandits with high bias and variance.
method Factored action space decomposition and importance sampling-based estimator (OPCB).
result OPCB achieves superior performance in OPE and OPL compared to conventional methods.
New Riemannian optimization improves variance estimation in mixed models.
problem Challenges in estimating variance parameters in linear mixed models due to constraints.
method Formulated as an optimization problem on a Riemannian manifold, using Riemannian gradient and Hessian.
result Yields higher quality variance parameter estimates compared to existing methods.
Confidence Interval Construction and Conditional Variance Estimation with Dense ReLU Networksstat.ML
Paper improves confidence intervals and variance estimation for deep learning models.
problem Improving confidence intervals and variance estimation in deep learning models.
method Residual-based framework for conditional variance estimation; robust bootstrap procedure for confidence intervals.
result First non-asymptotic bounds for variance estimation using ReLU networks.
Proposes a modified Morgan-Pitman test for evaluating variances in machine learning models.
problem Limited ability to account for sampling variability in model selection.
method Enhances the classic Morgan-Pitman test for robustness in non-linear models with heavy-tailed distributions or outliers.
result Demonstrates the test's effectiveness and practical utility in model evaluation and selection.
GT-DDP optimizer trains residual networks using game theory.
problem Applying DDP to residual networks.
method Game-theoretic DDP optimizer for residual networks.
result Improved training convergence and variance reduction.
Recovering the support of sparse vectors in underdetermined linear regression models, \textit{aka}, compressive sensing is important in many signal processing applications. High SNR consistency (HSC), i.e., the ability of a support recovery technique to correctly identify the support with increasing signal to noise rat…
VA-OPE improves OPE by incorporating variance information, achieving tighter error bounds.
problem Estimating value function of a target policy from offline data collected by a behavior policy.
method Proposes VA-OPE, an algorithm that reweights Bellman residual using estimated variance of the value function.
result Achieves a tighter error bound than the best-known result.
New algorithms solve stochastic variational inequalities without bounded variance assumption.
problem Solving stochastic variational inequalities without bounded variance assumption.
method Developed algorithms for two classes of problems: monotone and structured nonmonotone VIs.
result Oracle complexity of O(ε^-4) for solving VIs with unbounded domains and possibly unbounded variance.
Residual U-net with Self-Attention to Solve Multi-Agent Time-Consistent Optimal Trade Executionq-fin.TR
Deep neural net solves multi-agent optimal trading problem.
problem Optimal trade execution for multiple agents and assets.
method Residual U-net with self-attention for viscosity solution approximation.
result Neural network approach outperforms finite difference methods.
The paper analyzes worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy under partial information.
problem Analyzing worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy with limited information.
method General distributions, partial information (mean and variance), various entropies and risk measures.
result Provides worst-case results for distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy.
Self-paced learning and hard example mining re-weight training instances to improve learning accuracy. This paper presents two improved alternatives based on lightweight estimates of sample uncertainty in stochastic gradient descent (SGD): the variance in predicted probability of the correct class across iterations of …
A new statistical concept, lepto-variance, is defined for stock returns using Regression Trees.
problem Understanding the underlying structure of stock returns using statistical methods.
method Defining lepto-variance as the variance that cannot be removed by any regression tree of a specific depth and analyzing stock returns with 1- and 2-bit Regression Trees.
result Lepto-variance quantifies the resolving power of Regression Trees for stock returns, decomposing total variance into lepto-variance and macro-variance.
This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio for various hedging horizons for a number of assets. The effectiveness of the dy…
PROBE optimizes best-arm identification with cheap proxies, improving sample complexity.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with costly rewards and correlated cheap proxies.
method PROBE uses control-variate adjustment and phase elimination to learn residual variance online.
result PROBE achieves oracle sample complexity up to a constant factor and additive calibration cost.
Estimates variance function using aggregation methods in regression models.
problem Estimating variance function in regression models.
method Two-step procedure involving model selection or convex aggregation, using two independent samples.
result Consistency of the proposed method in L2 error for MS and C aggregations.
New method improves deep policy gradient algorithms by learning relative state values.
problem High sample complexity and instability in policy gradient methods.
method Uses a new state-value function approximation based on residual variance.
result Empirical improvement across diverse continuous control tasks and algorithms.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Deep heteroskedastic models overfit, showing a phase transition with regularization strength.
problem Overfitting in deep heteroskedastic regression models.
method Theoretical framework based on statistical field theory, empirical verification, and hyperparameter simplification.
result A phase transition in model behavior with varying regularization strength.
Field theory for optimal signal propagation in ResNetscond-mat.dis-nn
Field theory explains optimal scaling in ResNets for signal propagation.
problem Understanding optimal scaling parameter for ResNet performance.
method Finite-size field theory for ResNets to study signal propagation and scaling.
result Analytical expressions for optimal scaling parameter, independent of other hyperparameters.
Generalised Boosted Forestsstat.ME
The paper improves random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
problem Improving random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
method Extends boosting random forests to model exponential family responses using residuals and weights.
result Generalized boosted forests reduce bias and provide conservative confidence intervals.
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where but is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist performance requirement: can the bootstrap give us good confidence intervals fo…
In this paper, we consider a framework adapting the notion of cointegration when two asset prices are generated by a driftless Itô-semimartingale featuring jumps with infinite activity, observed regularly and synchronously at high frequency. We develop a regression based estimation of the cointegrated relations method …
Recently manifold learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction attracts more and more interests, and various linear and nonlinear, global and local algorithms are proposed. The key step of manifold learning algorithm is the neighboring region selection. However, so far for the references we know, few of which propos…
ProxySHAP approximates Shapley and Banzhaf interactions efficiently.
problem Efficient estimation of complex machine learning interactions.
method ProxySHAP combines tree-based proxy models with residual correction.
result ProxySHAP achieves state-of-the-art interaction approximation quality.
VR-GHAL method solves stochastic fixed-point equations with high probability.
problem Solving stochastic fixed-point equations in normed spaces with nonexpansive or contractive operators.
method VR-GHAL, a variance-reduced gradual Halpern method for quadratically smoothable Banach spaces, using clipped stochastic differences.
result The method achieves a high-probability residual bound, reducing the residual nearly geometrically across epochs.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.