The paper develops a model using risk-neutral pricing for financial decision-making.
problem Developing a representative agent model for financial decision-making.
method The approach involves using a pricing kernel that is transition independent, solving the eigenpair problem of a second-order differential operator, and finding a one-parameter family of eigenpairs.
result The paper finds a representative agent model derived from the eigenpairs, providing a necessary and sufficient condition for their existence.
AEC Games model represents software MARL environments better than POSGs.
problem POSGs are conceptually unsuitable for software MARL environments.
method Introduced AEC Games model as an equivalent to POSGs.
result AEC Games model is more representative of software MARL environments.
We present an overview of some representative Agent-Based Models in Economics. We discuss why and how agent-based models represent an important step in order to explain the dynamics and the statistical properties of financial markets beyond the Classical Theory of Economics. We perform a schematic analysis of several m…
Study counterfactuals in combinatorial choice using a representative agent model.
problem Analyzing decision-making from aggregated binary polytope data.
method Nonparametric approach based on a representative agent model, solving polynomial and mixed-integer convex programs.
result Developed a method for counterfactual prediction that works even under model misspecification.
This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correl…
Many learning agents impact a financial market model, showing complex dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets with multiple learning agents.
method Agent-based model of financial market with multiple reinforcement learning agents interacting.
result Inclusion of learning agents changes market dynamics to match empirical data.
We revisit a recently introduced agent model[ACS {\bf 11}, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents' social network, both on an agent's decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and ra…
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.
The paper examines how slightly biasing towards under-represented groups in sequential selection processes can lead to long-term fairness.
problem Designing fair sequential decision-making processes for long-term social fairness.
method Proposes Multi-agent Fair-Greedy policy to balance score maximization and fairness.
result Proves convergence to long-term fairness target set by agents when score distributions are identical.
We proposed the agent-based model of financial markets where agents (or traders) are represented by three-state spins located on the plane lattice or social network. The spin variable represents only the individual opinion (advice) that each trader gives to his nearest neighbors. In the model the agents can be consider…
Dynamic pricing model considers ambiguity in endowment growth rate.
problem Dynamic asset pricing under ambiguous endowment growth rate.
method α-maxmin expected utility model for ambiguity, intra-personal equilibrium strategies, market equilibrium.
result Asset prices reflect ambiguity in endowment growth rate.
The standard asset pricing models (the CCAPM and the Epstein-Zin non-expected utility model) counterintuitively predict that equilibrium asset prices can rise if the representative agent's risk aversion increases. If the income effect, which implies enhanced saving as a result of an increase in risk aversion, dominates…
Study optimal growth strategies in a continuous-time asset market.
problem Guaranteeing that individual agent strategies cannot outperform the market.
method Mean-field approximation of an infinite number of infinitesimal agents, focusing on optimal strategy distribution among assets.
result Optimal strategy for market agents is to invest proportionally to discounted expected relative dividend intensities.
An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control term representing the local environmental pressure which avoids an exponential gro…
Reduced models derived from agent-based systems using Koopman theory.
problem Time-consuming simulations of large agent-based systems.
method Koopman operator theory applied to simulation data.
result Derived reduced models match known analytical results.
A financial market model uses spin variables to represent and predict agent behavior.
problem Predicting and understanding financial market behavior.
method Agent-based model with Potts model interpretation, focusing on spin variables representing opinions and actions.
result Model accurately predicts market behavior and statistical properties of financial returns.
Modeling market dynamics with a bounded-rational agent learning from alpha signals and market impact.
problem Understanding and predicting market dynamics with a bounded-rational agent.
method Formulating a neuroscience-inspired Bounded Rational Information Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BRIT-IRL) model to simulate market dynamics.
result Effective asset price dynamics with non-linear mean reversion generated dynamically.
Paper proposes DigMA to generate controllable financial market orders.
problem Generating realistic financial market orders with controllability.
method DigMA model using conditional diffusion and meta agent.
result DigMA achieves superior controllability and generation fidelity.
Generalizes risk sharing models to a continuum of agents.
problem Risk sharing among a large number of heterogeneous agents.
method Modeling agents as points in a measure space, using risk measures on a probability space, and deriving dual representations.
result Explicit formulas for specific risk measures (entropic and expected shortfall) and applications to Pareto efficiency.
Bayesian optimization agent learns user preferences from pairwise comparisons.
problem Learning user preferences from unknown and infinite choices.
method Sequential Bayesian optimization with pairwise comparisons.
result Optimal agent strategy minimizes remaining system uncertainty.
New bounds on predicting agent behavior from behavior alone.
problem Predicting agent beliefs and intentions from observed behavior.
method Derivation of bounds on agent behavior in new environments under assumption of world model.
result Theoretical limits on predicting intentional agents from behavioral data.
Modeling financial market dynamics with noise and fundamentalist agents.
problem Understanding opinion formation and market behavior in financial markets.
method Agent-based model with Erdös-Rényi random graph structure, incorporating anxiety parameter.
result Model accurately reproduces key market features like fat-tailed returns and volatility clustering.
AI agents manage portfolios, improving on human oversight.
problem Improving strategic asset allocation for institutional investors.
method 50 specialized agents produce capital market assumptions, construct portfolios, critique, and vote on each other's output.
result Meta-agent compares forecasts with realized returns and improves agent performance.
Graphon game model simplifies stochastic interactions among agents.
problem Complex interactions among heterogeneous agents in stochastic games.
method Introduced a discrete-time graphon game formulation with a representative player.
result Existence and uniqueness of graphon equilibrium proven with mild assumptions.
Paper proposes method to calibrate market simulator for various scenarios.
problem Calibrate market simulator to represent different market conditions.
method Two-step method using GAN with self-attention to train discriminator and optimize simulator parameters.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of method in capturing various market scenarios.
Model predicts multi-agent trajectories using a differentiable simulator.
problem Predicting future positions of multiple interacting agents.
method Conditional recurrent variational neural networks (CVRNNs) with a kinematic bicycle model.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on INTERACTION dataset.
Generative adversarial network creates motion templates for agent training.
problem Training reinforcement learning agents with meaningful behaviors.
method Trains a GAN to produce motion templates from raw pixel data.
result Generated motions enable training reinforcement learning agents in novel environments.
Predicts multiple vehicle trajectories efficiently.
problem Predicting uncertain future motions of agents in dynamic scenes.
method Probabilistic framework learning latent variables for multi-step future modeling.
result State-of-the-art predictions on vehicle trajectory datasets.
A deterministic system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economic activity among interacting agents. The values of the maps represent the wealth of the agents. The dynamics of the system is controlled by two parameters. One parameter expresses the growth capacity of the agents and the other describes the local…
Improved exploration in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Limited expressiveness of Gaussian policies in DecSPG hinders effective exploration.
method Proposes decentralized diffusion policy learning (DDPL) with denoising diffusion probabilistic models.
result Consistently improved performance on various MARL benchmarks.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
In this work the system of agents is applied to establish a model of the nonlinear distributed signal processing. The evolution of the system of the agents - by the prediction time scale diversified trend followers, has been studied for the stochastic time-varying environments represented by the real currency-exchange …
Model financial markets with social media influences using hierarchical networks.
problem Understanding social media's impact on financial markets.
method Agent-based model with hierarchical influence network.
result Model accurately simulates real-world financial market behaviors.
Study risk sharing among agents with varying risk preferences.
problem Risk sharing among agents with heterogeneous risk measures.
method Derive explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution under varying risk seeking.
result Explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution can be represented by a generalization of distortion risk measures.
Paper tackles NP-hard multi-agent planning with reinforcement learning.
problem Solving NP-hard multi-agent, multi-task planning problems with time-dependent rewards.
method Developed a reinforcement learning framework using mean-field inference and auction-based selection.
result Achieved near-optimality and transferability in solving MRRC and IPMS problems.
In this article, we address the question of how non-knowledge about future events that influence economic agents' decisions in choice settings has been formally represented in economic theory up to date. To position our discussion within the ongoing debate on uncertainty, we provide a brief review of historical develop…
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking regulation, the so called Merton-Vasicek model. Economic agents are attracted to each ot…
Method infers internal model from rational foraging behavior.
problem Discover how the brain represents and computes dynamic beliefs.
method POMDP model, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation.
result Successfully recovered internal model and reward function of foraging agents.
We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers have proposed many aggregation methods, although on the question of which is be…
Study models opaque financial markets using multi-agent simulation.
problem Challenges in financial markets with obscured data availability.
method Multi-agent simulation with small-scale meta-heuristic methods.
result Captures bilateral market dynamics of OTC trading.
A trading system uses LLMs to adapt to volatile crypto markets.
problem Volatility and market sentiment in cryptocurrencies make traditional models ineffective.
method Specialized LLM agents for technical analysis, sentiment evaluation, and decision-making; verbal feedback for continuous improvement.
result Agents outperform buy-and-hold strategy with consistent gains across market phases.
We introduce a minimal Agent Based Model for financial markets to understand the nature and Self-Organization of the Stylized Facts. The model is minimal in the sense that we try to identify the essential ingredients to reproduce the main most important deviations of price time series from a Random Walk behavior. We fo…
Agents learn state ambiguity from non-linear sensor data using Gaussian approximations.
problem Learning state representation from non-linear sensor data.
method Second-order Taylor approximation of Gaussian distribution for non-linear measurement functions.
result Induces a preference for states based on inferability from observations.
Efficient exploration improves large language model performance with fewer queries.
problem Improving large language model performance with fewer human feedback queries.
method Sequentially generates queries, fits a reward model to feedback, uses double Thompson sampling with epistemic neural network uncertainty.
result Efficient exploration enables high performance with far fewer queries.
Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution arises as the statistical equilibrium probability distribution of money among the agents of a closed economic system where random and undirected exchanges are allowed. When considering a model with uniform savings in the exchanges, the final distribution is close to the gamma family. In thi…
Paper introduces a structured prediction approach for multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Scaling and generalization in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Structured prediction approach using learned scoring models for task assignment.
result The approach can generalize to larger problems with more agents and tasks.
We investigate the effects of the social interactions of a finite set of agents on an equilibrium pricing mechanism. A derivative written on non-tradable underlyings is introduced to the market and priced in an equilibrium framework by agents who assess risk using convex dynamic risk measures expressed by Backward Stoc…
Safe-M3-UCRL learns safe policies for multi-agent systems with global constraints.
problem Global constraints in mean-field reinforcement learning for multi-agent systems.
method Safe-M3-UCRL uses epistemic uncertainty and log-barrier approach to ensure constraints satisfaction. result Safe-M3-UCRL learns safe policies for multi-agent systems with global constraints.