A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are based on repeated aggregations of information across nodes' neighbors in a graph. However, because common neighbors are shared between different nodes, this leads to repeated and inefficient computations. We propose Hierarchically Aggregated computation Graphs (HAGs), a new GNN graph re…
It is common to encounter situations where one must solve a sequence of similar computational problems. Running a standard algorithm with worst-case runtime guarantees on each instance will fail to take advantage of valuable structure shared across the problem instances. For example, when a commuter drives from work to…
A wide class of machine learning algorithms can be reduced to variable elimination on factor graphs. While factor graphs provide a unifying notation for these algorithms, they do not provide a compact way to express repeated structure when compared to plate diagrams for directed graphical models. To exploit efficient t…
We study two systems of tangle equations that arise when modeling the action of the Integrase family of proteins on DNA. These two systems--direct and inverted repeats--correspond to two different possibilities for the initial DNA sequence. We present one new class of solutions to the tangle equations. In the case of i…
We investigate the question of when distinct branched surfaces in the complement of a 2-bridge knot support essential surfaces with identical boundary slopes. We determine all instances in which this occurs and identify an infinite family of knots for which no boundary slopes are repeated.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
It has long been known that a Milnor invariant with no repeated index is an invariant of link homotopy. We show that Milnor's invariants with repeated indices are invariants not only of isotopy, but also of self C_k-moves. A self C_k-move is a natural generalization of link homotopy based on certain degree k clasper su…
We investigate some geometric properties of the real algebraic variety Δ of symmetric matrices with repeated eigenvalues. We explicitly compute the volume of its intersection with the sphere and prove a Eckart-Young-Mirsky-type theorem for the distance function from a generic matrix to points in Δ. We exhibit conne…
This paper tackles the reduction of redundant repeating generation that is often observed in RNN-based encoder-decoder models. Our basic idea is to jointly estimate the upper-bound frequency of each target vocabulary in the encoder and control the output words based on the estimation in the decoder. Our method shows si…
Machine learning models for repeated measurements are limited. Using topological data analysis (TDA), we present a classifier for repeated measurements which samples from the data space and builds a network graph based on the data topology. When applying this to two case studies, accuracy exceeds alternative models wit…
We present Sequential Attend, Infer, Repeat (SQAIR), an interpretable deep generative model for videos of moving objects. It can reliably discover and track objects throughout the sequence of frames, and can also generate future frames conditioning on the current frame, thereby simulating expected motion of objects. Th…
A new method combines machine learning with mixed-effects models for better repeated measurement analysis.
problem Inference of linear coefficients in partially linear mixed-effects models with complex interactions and high-dimensional variables.
method Double machine learning approach to estimate nonparametrically nonlinear variables, then use standard linear mixed-effects techniques to estimate the linear coefficient.
result The estimated fixed effects coefficient converges at the parametric rate and is semiparametrically efficient.
Federated learning has a variety of applications in multiple domains by utilizing private training data stored on different devices. However, the aggregation process in federated learning is highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks so that the global model may behave abnormally under attacks. To tackle this challenge, …
Predictive models ground many state-of-the-art developments in statistical brain image analysis: decoding, MVPA, searchlight, or extraction of biomarkers. The principled approach to establish their validity and usefulness is cross-validation, testing prediction on unseen data. Here, I would like to raise awareness on e…
Traditionally, psychophysical experiments are conducted by repeated measurements on a few well-trained participants under well-controlled conditions, often resulting in, if done properly, high quality data. In recent years, however, crowdsourcing platforms are becoming increasingly popular means of data collection, mea…
This study quantifies uncertainty in comparing treatments using RCTs with before-and-after measures.
problem Uncertainty in comparing treatments using RCTs with before-and-after measures.
method New statistical modeling principle called ETZ enables counterfactual uncertainty quantification (CUQ) in RCTs with Before-and-After Repeated Measures.
result CUQ typically has lower variability than factual uncertainty quantification and can be achieved in RCTs.
Whether stochastic or parametric, the Pareto/NBD model can only be utilized for an in-sample prediction rather than an out-of-sample prediction. This research thus provides a neural network based extension of the Pareto/NBD model to estimate the out-of-sample parameters, which overrides the estimation burden and the ap…
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
problem Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty for complex models
method Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty
result Asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification, recovers robust sandwich covariance under misspecification
Neural recordings are nonstationary time series, i.e. their properties typically change over time. Identifying specific changes, e.g. those induced by a learning task, can shed light on the underlying neural processes. However, such changes of interest are often masked by strong unrelated changes, which can be of physi…
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …
Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didacti…