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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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7132026 · Jun 202619922001200920172026
48 results for repeated cross-fitting

Serverless cloud computing speeds up double machine learning model estimation.

problem Efficiently estimating double machine learning models with minimal cloud resource management.
method Serverless computing with AWS Lambda for repeated cross-fitting.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in estimation times and costs.

Neyman's framework evaluates personalized treatment rules using experiments.

problem Evaluating the efficacy of individualized treatment rules derived by machine learning.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework applied to cross-fitted ITRs.
result Ex-post evaluation of ITRs can be more efficient than random assignment.

Improved estimators for causal inference using cross-fitting and undersmoothing.

problem Estimating expected conditional covariance in causal inference.
method Double cross-fit doubly robust (DCDR) estimators with undersmoothing for non-smooth nuisance functions.
result DCDR estimators achieve n\sqrt{n}-consistency and asymptotic normality under minimal conditions.

Paper develops efficient DML estimators for multiway clustered data without cross-fitting.

problem Efficient inference in models with multiway clustered dependence.
method Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions combined with localisation-based empirical process approach.
result Valid inference achieved without cross-fitting, showing debiased GMM estimators are asymptotically linear and normal.

Develops a test for conditional local independence of counting processes.

problem Testing the hypothesis of conditional local independence among continuous time stochastic processes.
method Introduces a new functional parameter, the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), and proposes a test called (X)-LCT using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting.
result The (X)-LCT test can be controlled uniformly with modest rates, and it works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.

Proposes a method to make statistical inferences robust in spatially dependent settings with missing at random labels.

problem Statistical inference challenges with missing at random labels and spatial dependence.
method Doubly robust estimator with cross-fit nuisances and jackknife spatial HAC variance correction.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals with improved finite-sample calibration.

New method stabilizes machine learning predictions across random seeds.

problem Machine learning predictions vary across random seeds, causing instability.
method Introduces adaptive cross-bagging to eliminate seed dependence.
result Adaptive cross-bagging achieves targeted stability in debiased machine learning.

Proposes a new estimator for weak instrumental variables in panel data models.

problem Weak instrumental variables due to ignored nonlinearities in panel data.
method Triangular simultaneous equation model with a nonlinear reduced form equation and a control function approach using Super Learner.
result The proposed SLCF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, achieving a parametric rate of convergence.

Develops statistical inference for ML-discovered heterogeneous treatment effects.

problem ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects in practical settings.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework, dividing sample into groups, estimating average treatment effects, constructing confidence intervals.
result Valid methodology for estimating and testing heterogeneous treatment effects without relying on ML algorithm properties.

Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.

problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.

CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.

problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.

MEC improves efficiency and robustness in semi-supervised inference.

problem Efficient inference with limited labeled data and robust uncertainty quantification.
method Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration (MEC) using cross-fitted, calibration-weighted PPI.
result MEC achieves semiparametric efficiency bounds under weaker assumptions and provides near-nominal coverage.

Develops a new inference method for split-sample estimators using multiple splits.

problem Statistical dependence and variability in split-sample estimators.
method Averaging across multiple splits, proving a central limit theorem, and developing new inference approaches.
result Valid confidence intervals and improved power in comparing model performance.

Proposes a method for inference in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.

problem Lack of inference procedures for identifying driving factors in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
method Kernel-smoothed decorrelated score and cross-fitted version for hypothesis tests and interval estimators.
result Valid and superior inference methods for high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.

Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.

problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.

Optimal strategies are found for a repeated betting game using diffusion approximation.

problem Finding optimal strategies for a repeated betting game with i.i.d. outcomes.
method Constructing a diffusion approximation of the repeated game and analyzing the wealth share process.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for the wealth share process to be transient or recurrent are derived.

Develops certificates for local population-risk increments using cross-fitted ridge calibration.

problem Certifying local population-risk increments in statistical models.
method Cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes, separating Taylor fluctuations and remainders.
result Certifies measurable updates from the same sample with penalties dependent on empirical geometry.

We study two systems of tangle equations that arise when modeling the action of the Integrase family of proteins on DNA. These two systems--direct and inverted repeats--correspond to two different possibilities for the initial DNA sequence. We present one new class of solutions to the tangle equations. In the case of i…

2004-12-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study explores algorithmic collusion in repeated games using various learning dynamics.

problem Understanding algorithmic collusion in repeated games with different learning dynamics.
method Examines QQ-learning, gradient learning, and other dynamics in a general repeated game setting.
result Characterizes the set of payoff vectors achievable by these dynamics, revealing possibilities for collusion.

Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.

Paper adapts DML for panel data, addressing unobserved heterogeneity.

problem Estimating causal effects with panel data and unobserved heterogeneity.
method Adapting double/debiased machine learning (DML) for panel data with predictive models based on correlated random effects.
result Predictive models based on correlated random effects within DML lead to accurate coefficient estimates.

We investigate the question of when distinct branched surfaces in the complement of a 2-bridge knot support essential surfaces with identical boundary slopes. We determine all instances in which this occurs and identify an infinite family of knots for which no boundary slopes are repeated.

2015-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

LAFF algorithm balances adaptability and non-exploitability in repeated games.

problem Low regret in repeated games against unknown opponent classes.
method LAFF algorithm searches within sub-algorithms optimal for each opponent class and uses a punishment policy for exploitation.
result LAFF guarantees sublinear regret uniformly over possible opponents, except exploitative ones, for which it guarantees linear regret.

The paper develops methods to estimate treatment effects in sample selection models.

problem Evaluation of treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or attrition.
method Combines selection-on-observables and instrumental variable assumptions with double machine learning for treatment evaluation.
result Proposed estimators are asymptotically normal and root-n consistent.

DSL estimates heterogeneous treatment effects over time in survival settings.

problem Complicated by right censoring and time-varying treatment effects.
method Deep survival learner (DSL) for estimating CATEs over a clinically relevant time spectrum.
result DSL reveals heterogeneity in perioperative chemotherapy effects over time.

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and cross-fitting, in settings where nuisance parameters are estimated using a new gene…

2017-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

It has long been known that a Milnor invariant with no repeated index is an invariant of link homotopy. We show that Milnor's invariants with repeated indices are invariants not only of isotopy, but also of self C_k-moves. A self C_k-move is a natural generalization of link homotopy based on certain degree k clasper su…

2005-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimizes product assortment for retailers with repeated exposures and patience costs.

problem Optimizing product assortment for online retailers with repeated exposures and varying consumer patience.
method Developed a cascade multinomial logit model to capture repeated exposures and patience costs.
result Proposed an approximation solution to the assortment optimization problem.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are based on repeated aggregations of information across nodes' neighbors in a graph. However, because common neighbors are shared between different nodes, this leads to repeated and inefficient computations. We propose Hierarchically Aggregated computation Graphs (HAGs), a new GNN graph re…

2019-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method combines machine learning with mixed-effects models for better repeated measurement analysis.

problem Inference of linear coefficients in partially linear mixed-effects models with complex interactions and high-dimensional variables.
method Double machine learning approach to estimate nonparametrically nonlinear variables, then use standard linear mixed-effects techniques to estimate the linear coefficient.
result The estimated fixed effects coefficient converges at the parametric rate and is semiparametrically efficient.