Study optimizes SREC generation and trading in solar energy markets.
problem Optimizing solar energy generation and trading in SREC markets.
method Mean-field game approach to solve stochastic game with heterogeneous agents.
result Characterized firms' optimal controls and equilibrium SREC price.
SREC markets are a relatively novel market-based system to incentivize the production of energy from solar means. A regulator imposes a floor on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate from solar power in a given period and provides them with certificates for each generated MWh. Firms offset these certif…
Deep learning solves complex PA mean field games with market-clearing conditions.
problem Optimizing Principal-Agent interactions in renewable energy markets with market-clearing conditions.
method Actor-critic approach, deep backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE), neural net approximation.
result Efficacy of the deep learning algorithm in solving complex PA mean field games.
New algorithms learn stability certificates from data, avoiding complex dynamics.
problem Synthesizing stability certificates from complex dynamical systems.
method Developed algorithms to learn certificate functions from trajectory data, establishing generalization error bounds.
result Efficiently learned certificates can be used for adaptive control.
Improved neural network robustness certification through tighter convex relaxations.
problem Certifying neural network robustness to perturbed and adversarial inputs.
method Exploiting ReLU network structure, novel partition-based certification procedure.
result Tightens existing linear programming relaxations to achieve zero relaxation error asymptotically.
Develops structured noise for more accurate graph classifier robustness certificates.
problem Isotropic noise limits robustness certificates for graph classifiers.
method Randomized smoothing with anisotropic noise distribution.
result Structured-aware robustness certificates provide more accurate predictions.
New method closes certification gap for adversarially trained models.
problem Certifying robustness of adversarially trained neural networks.
method Nonconvex low-rank SDP relaxation with polynomial-time optimization.
result Strong certifications comparable to SDP methods, but with fewer variables.
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
problem Error probability in classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
method Asymptotic expressions for Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities.
result Obtained asymptotic expressions for misclassification error probabilities.
While neural networks have achieved high performance in different learning tasks, their accuracy drops significantly in the presence of small adversarial perturbations to inputs. Defenses based on regularization and adversarial training are often followed by new attacks to defeat them. In this paper, we propose attack-…
New framework improves adversarial robustness certification for various perturbations.
problem Certifying robustness against adversarial attacks in deep learning models.
method Unified functional optimization approach with non-Gaussian smoothing noise for multiple types of attacks.
result Achieves better certification results and identifies key trade-offs between accuracy and robustness.
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
problem Lack of renewable energy integration across South American countries.
method Long-term scenario forecasting methodology applied to raw data from typical countries.
result Promoting cross-border interconnection towards renewables can optimize energy supply, reduce costs, and balance the energy matrix.
Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.
problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
Paper develops tighter risk certificates for contrastive learning models.
problem Statistical theory for contrastive learning is lacking, especially for practical models like SimCLR.
method Develops non-vacuous PAC-Bayesian risk certificates considering practical SimCLR factors.
result Risk certificates for contrastive loss and downstream prediction are much tighter than previous results.
Develops local population-risk certificates for model updates
problem Model updates in machine learning
method Certify population-risk increments around a model
result Certified upper endpoint yields a risk-controlled update rule
The performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm can vary drastically during learning because of exploration. Existing algorithms provide little information about the quality of their current policy before executing it, and thus have limited use in high-stakes applications like healthcare. We address this lack of …
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
problem Valuation and risk assessment of non-standard renewable PPAs.
method Formalizes payoff structures, derives fair contract prices, proposes market risk-assessment methodology.
result Fair prices and risk profiles vary across technologies and contractual structures.
New method provides tighter robustness guarantees for adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring robustness against adversarial attacks in machine learning models.
method Developed a Second-order Smoothing (SoS) robustness certificate using Gaussian random smoothing.
result SoS certificates are tighter and provide improved robustness on high-dimensional datasets.
Proposes a pricing agent using reinforcement learning to balance renewable energy demand.
problem Intermittent renewable energy sources challenge carbon-free electricity generation.
method Reinforcement learning approach to balance customer demand with renewable energy generation.
result Demonstrates improved electricity pricing strategy for renewable energy integration.
Characterizes measures preserving compound mixed renewal process properties.
problem Preserving compound mixed renewal process properties under different probability measures.
method Characterization of progressively equivalent probability measures.
result Any compound mixed renewal process can be converted into a compound mixed Poisson process through a change of measures.
Paper develops framework for valuing and assessing credit risk in renewable PPAs.
problem Renewable PPAs expose both parties to counterparty credit risk.
method Modelled joint dynamics of electricity prices and renewable output, incorporated default probabilities.
result Provides transparent metric for PPA valuation under counterparty risk.
TUV Austria proposes certification for ML applications to ensure reliability.
problem Ensuring trust in AI applications to meet societal reliance requirements.
method Holistic approach analyzing security, functionality, data quality, ethics, and criticality levels.
result Certification process for low-risk ML applications in supervised learning.
Valid certifies LLMs' domain adherence, bounding out-of-domain behavior.
problem Adversarial susceptibility of LLMs to generate out-of-domain outputs.
method VALID approach providing adversarial bounds as a certificate.
result Validates LLMs' domain adherence with meaningful certificates.
Paper provides efficient robustness certificates for neural networks.
problem Ensuring neural networks are robust against adversarial attacks.
method Two-step approach: 1) Efficient convex optimization for robustness certificates with bounded Hessian eigenvalues, 2) Curvature-based regularization during training.
result Significantly higher certified robust accuracy achieved compared to existing methods.
New attack tricks certifiably robust models into mislabeling images.
problem Defeating certified defenses against adversarial examples.
method Spoofed robustness certificates and large perturbations.
result Certifiably robust models can be fooled by large perturbations.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
New robustness certificates for streaming models with a sliding window.
problem Applying robustness certificates to streaming data with correlated inputs.
method Deriving robustness certificates for models using a sliding window over a sequence of potentially correlated inputs.
result Guarantees hold for the average model performance across the entire stream, independent of stream size.
Optimizes renewable energy mix to meet carbon-free targets at lowest cost.
problem Minimizing annual procurement costs while achieving specified carbon-free hourly performance.
method Probabilistic framework with simulation scenarios and probability constraints. Fixed set of renewable generators and load customer.
result Demonstrated that certain renewable energy portfolios can meet carbon-free targets at lower costs compared to others.
Survey examines challenges of ML in avionic systems certification.
problem Challenges in current certification standards for ML in avionic systems.
method Literature review focusing on robustness and explainability of ML results.
result Current certification standards do not support ML in avionic systems.
Geometric technique determines exactness of SDP robustness certificate.
problem Certifying robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples.
method Geometric projection onto hyperbola, SDP relaxation of ReLU activation.
result SDP certificate is exact for a single hidden layer under mild assumptions.
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
The paper improves risk certificate tightness for neural networks using PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds.
method Theoretical contributions including KL divergence bounds, efficient methodology for optimization, and methods for optimizing non-differentiable objectives.
result First non-vacuous generalization bounds on CIFAR-10 for neural networks.
Study adversarial perturbations in classification, analyzing learning and certification.
problem Formal study of classification under adversarial perturbations from both learner and third-party perspectives.
method PAC-type semi-supervised learning framework, black-box certification under limited query budget, adversary analysis.
result Existence of a polynomial query complexity adversary implies the existence of a sample efficient robust learner.
Model predicts sponsorship ROI using renewal probability.
problem Difficulty in measuring return on investment from sponsorships.
method Survival analysis using sponsorship renewal as proxy.
result Predicted values for sponsor's renewal probability and duration.
New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
method Proposes worst-case adversarial loss over input distributions as a robustness certificate, and uses duality and smoothness properties to provide an easy-to-compute upper bound.
result Shows superior robustness performance over state-of-the-art certified or heuristic methods.
New framework certifies robustness for regression models.
problem Certifying robustness for regression models is challenging.
method Derives a prediction-centered certificate that exploits local geometry.
result Gradient information yields tighter robustness certificates.
In this study we model the warranty claims process and evaluate the warranty servicing costs under non-renewing and renewing free repair warranties. We assume that the repair time for rectifying the claims is non-zero and the repair cost is a function of the length of the repair time. To accommodate the ageing of the p…
Modeling price formation in intraday electricity markets with renewable generation.
problem Price formation and optimal trading strategies in intraday electricity markets with intermittent renewable generation.
method Developed a tractable equilibrium model using stochastic control theory to identify optimal strategies and exhibit Nash equilibrium.
result Identified optimal trading strategies and exhibited Nash equilibrium in closed form for a finite number of agents and in the asymptotic framework of mean field games.
This paper develops a general theoretical framework to analyze structured sparse recovery problems using the notation of dual certificate. Although certain aspects of the dual certificate idea have already been used in some previous work, due to the lack of a general and coherent theory, the analysis has so far only be…
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
Given a tame knot K presented in the form of a knot diagram, we show that the problem of determining whether K is knotted is in the complexity class NP, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis (GRH). In other words, there exists a polynomial-length certificate that can be verified in polynomial time to prove that K…
New method certifies robustness to sparse adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring robustness of classifiers to sparse adversarial attacks.
method Randomized ablation of input features to provide robustness guarantees.
result Certifies robustness to sparse adversarial attacks with up to 31 pixels of distortion.
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.
New method defends against patch attacks with high-certainty guarantees.
problem Patch attacks on images, especially physical adversarial attacks.
method Randomized smoothing, exploiting patch constraints.
result Meaningfully large robustness certificates against patch attacks.
Variable renewables can avoid market value decline with policy changes.
problem Market value decline due to correlated generation from wind and solar.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation examples of market incentives and prices.
result Market value decline is due to policy assumptions, not inherent technology limitations.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
problem High dependency on oil and low renewable energy penetration in MENA region.
method Analysis of World Bank datasets and policy portfolio in MENA countries.
result MENA region has high potential for solar energy but faces challenges in decoupling economic growth from energy consumption.