Paper introduces conformal prediction for reliable uncertainty quantification in landmark localization.
problem Systematic underestimation of total predictive uncertainty in landmark localization.
method Conformal prediction framework for multi-output regression, generating flexible prediction regions.
result Methods outperform existing approaches in validity and efficiency across 2D and 3D datasets.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.
Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.
Fortuna simplifies uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method Supports various calibration techniques including conformal prediction and scalable Bayesian inference.
result Simplifies benchmarking and builds robust AI systems.
New methods for better uncertainty prediction in ML.
problem Insufficient calibration in machine learning regression.
method Conditional calibration with respect to input features (adaptivity).
result Consistency and adaptivity are complementary, and good consistency does not guarantee good adaptivity.
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for physics.
method Unified taxonomy, principled validation tools.
result Illustrated validation tools with examples.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
Probabilistic SR method speeds up high-fidelity simulations with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Lack of reliable uncertainty quantification in deep-learning based SR methods.
method Statistical Finite Element Method and energy-based generative modeling.
result Efficient high-resolution predictions with inherent uncertainty estimates.
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
The paper highlights the importance of model misspecification in uncertainty estimation.
problem The reliability of uncertainty estimates in machine learning models under model misspecification.
method Thought experiments and literature review.
result Model misspecification should be given more attention in uncertainty estimation.
Paper tackles uncertainty in GNNs for graph data.
problem Uncertainty in GNNs' predictions for graph data.
method CF-T2NN, tensor decomposition, topological learning.
result CF-T2NN improves reliability and interpretability of GNN outcomes.
F-PACOH improves meta-learners' reliability in uncertain regions.
problem Overconfident uncertainty estimates in meta-learning.
method Meta-learning priors as stochastic processes in function space, directly steering predictions towards high epistemic uncertainty.
result Significantly outperforms other meta-learners in Bayesian Optimization.
This study introduces axioms to assess regression uncertainty measures.
problem Limited formal justification and evaluations of uncertainty measures in regression settings.
method Introduces axioms and analyzes entropy- and variance-based measures in a predictive exponential family context.
result Provides a principled foundation for reliable uncertainty assessment in regression.
ABNN converts pre-trained DNNs into BNNs for reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks (DNNs) is challenging and critical for real-world applications.
method Adaptable Bayesian Neural Network (ABNN) that transforms pre-trained DNNs into BNNs with minimal overhead.
result ABNN achieves state-of-the-art performance in image classification and semantic segmentation tasks.
DP-BNNs improve accuracy, privacy, and reliability in neural networks.
problem Balancing privacy and accuracy in neural networks.
method Proposed three DP-BNNs: DP-SGLD, DP-BBP, and DP-MC Dropout.
result DP-SGLD achieves high accuracy under strong privacy guarantees.
Survey on uncertainty in ML and DL, covering sources, quantification, and decision-making.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in ML and DL for risk-sensitive applications.
method Structured review of literature, categorizing uncertainty, assessing uncertainty quantification techniques.
result Broadened scope of uncertainty discussion and updated DL uncertainty quantification methods.
This paper tackles high-dimensional uncertainty quantification with semi-supervised learning.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Autoencoder for dimension reduction, DFN for mapping and reconstruction, GP for surrogate modeling, semi-supervised learning for accuracy.
result The framework effectively reduces uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis for high-dimensional problems.
This study improves uncertainty quantification in seismic inversion.
problem Uncertainty in seismic inversion due to limited data and model diversity.
method Integrates ensemble methods with importance sampling.
result More accurate uncertainty quantification in velocity models.
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
Develops a framework for inferring causal relationships in networked data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extracting reliable inference from complex Hawkes network data with uncertainty.
method Statistical inference framework based on maximum likelihood estimation and concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales.
result Provides a non-asymptotic confidence set for uncertainty quantification.
Study benchmarks uncertainty quantification in chest X-ray classification.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for medical AI models.
method Evaluation of 13 uncertainty quantification methods on MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset.
result Insights into effectiveness and disentanglement of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
Paper explores physics-informed deep learning for system reliability assessment.
problem Limited study on deep learning for system reliability assessment.
method Physics-informed deep learning approach for system reliability assessment.
result Physics-informed deep learning can alleviate computational challenges and combine measurement data and mathematical models.
DS-CP improves reliability of uncertainty quantification for large language models under domain shift.
problem Overconfident and factually incorrect outputs (hallucinations) from large language models.
method Adapts conformal prediction to large language models under domain shift by reweighting calibration samples.
result DS-CP delivers more reliable coverage than standard conformal prediction, especially under substantial distribution shifts.
Efficient neural network ensembles improve image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in neural network predictions for industrial image classification.
method Investigated efficient neural network ensembles (snapshot, batch, multi-input multi-output) for image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
result Batch ensemble is a cost-effective and competitive alternative to deep ensembles, offering savings in training and test time.
New BNN architectures reduce computational cost for uncertainty quantification.
problem High computational cost in Bayesian neural networks.
method Partial trace-class Bayesian neural networks (PaTraC BNNs).
result Comparable uncertainty quantification with fewer parameters.
Paper introduces variance-based measures for second-order uncertainty quantification in classification problems.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions and decision-making.
method Second-order uncertainty quantification using variance-based measures.
result Variance-based measures effectively quantify uncertainty on a class-based level and are competitive with entropy-based measures.
Paper quantifies uncertainty in probabilistic models using Gaussian Processes.
problem Assessing reliability of probabilistic machine learning predictions.
method Systematic framework for estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, using Gaussian Processes and Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective approach for quantifying prediction confidence in probabilistic models.
This paper connects noise injection to Bayesian inference for neural networks, improving model uncertainty.
problem Improving the reliability and confidence of neural network predictions through uncertainty quantification.
method Introducing noise into neural network parameters during training and inference to estimate prediction uncertainty.
result The MCNI method outperforms baseline models in regression and classification tasks.
Tabular FMs struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in tabular foundation models.
method Compared TabPFN and Gaussian processes (GPs) across various regression tasks.
result GP outperforms TabPFN in data-scarce settings and when kernels are good priors.
The paper improves uncertainty quantification for node classification using distance-based regularization.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models, especially for node classification tasks.
method Graph posterior networks (GPNs) with UCE loss function, followed by a distance-based regularization.
result The proposed distance-based regularization outperforms state-of-the-art methods in OOD detection and misclassification detection.
RETINA Benchmark evaluates Bayesian deep learning on diabetic retinopathy detection.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for deep learning models in medical applications.
method Design and evaluation of a real-world diabetic retinopathy dataset and tasks.
result Benchmarking of Bayesian deep learning methods on diabetic retinopathy detection tasks.
Survey and framework for consistent uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Partial uncertainty coverage and inconsistencies in deep learning uncertainty quantification.
method Bayes' theorem and conditional probability densities applied to all major sources of uncertainty.
result Improved robustness and reliability of neural network predictions in real-world scenarios.
New method quantifies uncertainty in imaging problems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in imaging inverse problems.
method Equivariant bootstrapping based on parametric bootstrap algorithm.
result Delivers accurate high-dimensional confidence regions.
Proposes a new method for localized uncertainty quantification in random forests using proximity measures.
problem Localized uncertainty quantification in random forests for improved reliability of predictions.
method Forming localized distributions of Out-Of-Bag (OOB) errors around nearby points defined by similarity measures (proximities) to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification.
result Localized prediction intervals and trust scores enhance model accuracy and provide higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods.
URL benchmark evaluates uncertainty quantification in pretrained models.
problem Need for reliable uncertainty estimates in transferable pretrained models.
method Proposes URL benchmark to measure transferability of representations and uncertainty estimates.
result Transferable uncertainty quantification remains challenging but not contradictory to traditional goals.
This study revisits UQ validation methods based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.
problem Lack of comprehensive validation methods for UQ metrics across input feature ranges.
method Revisit and extend common validation methods for UQ metrics based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.
result Improved understanding and capabilities of UQ metrics validation methods.
Generative Score Inference improves uncertainty quantification for multimodal data.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in multimodal learning tasks.
method Generative Score Inference (GSI) uses synthetic samples to approximate conditional score distributions.
result GSI achieves state-of-the-art performance in hallucination detection and image captioning uncertainty estimation.
New method improves reliability of depth estimation models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in large-scale vision models.
method Parameter-efficient Bayesian neural networks with PEFT methods.
result Combining PEFT methods with Bayesian inference enhances predictive performance.
Paper develops a new method to improve model calibration under distribution shifts.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification with different training and test distributions.
method Develops multi-domain temperature scaling to handle distribution shifts.
result Outperforms existing methods on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
The paper shows how uncertainty quantification improves counterfactual explainability in AI.
problem Lack of foundational concepts in transparency research.
method Integrates uncertainty quantification into counterfactual explainability.
result Demonstrates competitive performance of an uncertainty-based explainer.
PE-GQNN improves spatial data prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Poor calibration of predictive distributions in spatial data models.
method Combines PE-GNNs with Quantile Neural Networks and recalibration techniques.
result PE-GQNN outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
New framework improves reliability of learned representations by modeling uncertainty and structural constraints.
problem Uncertainty in learned representations treated as deterministic, leading to unreliable models.
method Proposes a principled framework for reliable representation learning with uncertainty-aware regularization and structural constraints.
result Improves stability, calibration, and robustness of learned representations.
New method for neural network uncertainty quantification using empirical Neural Tangent Kernel.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Post-hoc, sampling-based approach using gradient-descent on linearized networks.
result Method effectively approximates Gaussian process posterior and outperforms existing methods in efficiency and accuracy.